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E PA/NJ/DE Summer 2019 OBS Thread


Rtd208
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SPC has the area in a slight risk today with the mention of the possibility for a few tornado's. ML cape is already in the 500-1000 range and that is despite the cloud cover. RAP and HRRR have ml cape getting into the 1500-2000 range which is pretty potent. Dew points already around 70F across the area. Today could end up surprising severe wise, though the main threat still looks to be heavy rain with PWAT's around 2".

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1 hour ago, The Iceman said:

SPC has the area in a slight risk today with the mention of the possibility for a few tornado's. ML cape is already in the 500-1000 range and that is despite the cloud cover. RAP and HRRR have ml cape getting into the 1500-2000 range which is pretty potent. Dew points already around 70F across the area. Today could end up surprising severe wise, though the main threat still looks to be heavy rain with PWAT's around 2".

I usually expect a tempered threat for severe thunderstorms when the atmosphere is as saturated as it is today, since updrafts are weakened by having to lift air with a high moisture content, and without any pockets of drier air to get entrained in the storm to produce downbursts and gustier winds in storms, more thunderstorms end up being garden-variety than not.

 

With that said, veering low-level winds in the area might allow for isolated supercellular storms & a brief tornado, though garden-variety storms and downpours should be the "main storm mode" today...

 

Convective allowing models such as the NAMs, HRRR, and the WRFs have been showing some line segments of storms forming, with possible bowing structures... Though there isn't any dry air aloft to enhance downdrafts, there can still be strong/severe wind gusts in storms—particularly when segments of storms bow out. 

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6 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Over the past two hours, Allentown has picked up 1.00" rain. That brings Allentown's year-to-date precipitation to 28.85". As a result, 1941 remains Allentown's driest year on record. Then, 28.76" that fell during the entire year.

If the pattern continues, Allentown is on pace for another 60 inch season which is quite impressive.

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1 hour ago, Voyager said:

If the pattern continues, Allentown is on pace for another 60 inch season which is quite impressive.

That would be very impressive. Since 1912, Allentown has had only 3 years when 60" or more precipitation was recorded:

1952: 67.69"
2011: 71.72"
2018: 66.96"

Historically (1912-2018), Allentown has averaged 44.40" precipitation. However, the 2000-2018 period has averaged 48.38" and the 2010-2018 period has averaged 49.83".

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30 minutes ago, RedSky said:

At least that record isn't in Jeopardy eh I was growing concerned for them

 

:lol:

5 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

That would be very impressive. Since 1912, Allentown has had only 3 years when 60" or more precipitation was recorded:

1952: 67.69"
2011: 71.72"
2018: 66.96"

Historically (1912-2018), Allentown has averaged 44.40" precipitation. However, the 2000-2018 period has averaged 48.38" and the 2010-2018 period has averaged 49.83".

It's definitely trending wetter here in Eastern PA.

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On ‎6‎/‎13‎/‎2019 at 11:55 PM, Ginx snewx said:

 

Wow - short but intense.  Wife and I were watching 6 of our 7 grandkids about 8 miles SSE from there while dad/mom were on an anniversary date (with the still-nursing 7th.)  Tor-warn came over cell phones and we pondered a to-cellar move while I went out for a look (3x.)  Little rain, no wind, no thunder, so we stayed put.

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21 hours ago, RedSky said:

Just to the north has been getting crushed 

Had a regular toad-strangler in Mahwah/Suffern (NNJ/SNY) around 11 AM yesterday while looking for Good Sam hospital in the latter town.  High gear wipers couldn't compete, visibility 100 yards at times.

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