E PA/NJ/DE Summer 2019 OBS Thread

[bluehens]

That train of storms in central and western PA pointed right at us too. I am enjoying the rain. 

[BBasile]

6 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

I think I see a wall cloud on the storm across the bay. Southern NJ storm.

A wall cloud was reported with that storm and still has a bit of a hook.  

[RedSky]

Best "electrical" storm in decades occurring 10-20 miles to my south. Winter, summer same results.

 

[BBasile]

10 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Best "electrical" storm in decades occurring 10-20 miles to my south. Winter, summer same results.

 

I can see it from here.  Almost non-stop flashes.  

[RedSky]

5 minutes ago, BBasile said:

I can see it from here.  Almost non-stop flashes.  

Over the last two hours the number of strikes is in the thousands 

http://www.lightningmaps.org/#m=oss;r=0;t=2;s=0;o=0;b=;n=0;y=39.359;x=-76.4844;z=7;d=2;dl=2;dc=0;ts=0;

I would sell my blood for one ordinary mid range thunderstorm

 

 

[Rtd208]

Picked up 0.15" of rain for the day yesterday.

Current 70/DP 68/RH 93%

[ChasingFlakes]

Man was that a lightning show over SNJ earlier between 8-10pm.  Lightning was seemingly nonstop, I had a good bit of time to kill before I could begin work, so we watched the storm off in the distance.  Wish I had my dslr for that one.  I took some videos on my phone but we were in a lit up parking lot, so they didnt come out too great.  

[Rtd208]

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

 

[Rtd208]

Flash Flood Watch issued here from this afternoon into late tonight for 1-2" of rain w/locally higher amounts.

[penndotguy]

well we have some hail damage from the hail deluge, but nothing like a few years ago, was out in Morgantown Pa last night helping some friends and wow is there destruction out there. looking at some videos and seeing the damage up close it was definitely a tornado. looks like today could be just as active out here judging by Mt Holly AFD couldget interesting about the same time frame as yesterday

[ChasingFlakes]

Quality footage of the formation and initial touchdown of the Morgantown tornado.

https://weathernews.video/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/10000000_2469155956449296_242816684406642022_n.mp4

[penndotguy]

Just now, ChasingFlakes said:

Quality footage of the formation and initial touchdown of the Morgantown tornado.

https://weathernews.video/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/10000000_2469155956449296_242816684406642022_n.mp4

I have no doubt in my mind that cell went right over me but never touched down, we heard a very loud roaring for about 10 minutes with very strong winds. It was the most unsettling thing Ive heard. 

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

10 hours ago, RedSky said:

Best "electrical" storm in decades occurring 10-20 miles to my south. Winter, summer same results.

 

Spring of azz. We missed out too in Warminster. Literally had a cell right over us around 830pm had one flash of lightning and a low rumble of thunder and it was over. Maybe this afternoon.

[zenmsav6810]

A few dime size stones in Amity Gardens last night at about 6:30 pm

[Ralph Wiggum]

This afternoon looks slightly more volatile to me than yesterday, perhaps not as widespread but higher risk possibility. I have noticed in situations like this for whatever reason when there are similar patterns or flows for a couple of days with severe wx those that miss out on day one 9 out of 10 times will get hit on day 2 or 3. Hoping for some non-destructive boomers here. Last time I was able to photo a supercell to my east that went over me with the setting sun lighting up the towering cumulonimbus associated with the sc was about 25 years ago. 

[Newman]

[Ralph Wiggum]

22 minutes ago, Newman said:

Bullseye

[The Iceman]

I'm honestly liking today better than yesterday. Full sunshine out there plus this caught my eye in the day 1 disco:

 

Quote

 With the air mass likely to become moderately unstable by afternoon,
   storms will quickly intensify, organizationally aided by the
   intensifying belt of strong westerly deep-layer flow across the
   area. Large hail and damaging winds can be expected. Some tornado
   risk may also exist, particularly across eastern Pennsylvania/New
   Jersey southward toward the Delmarva vicinity, in relatively close
   proximity to a surface low and adjacent warm front. A supercell risk
   aside, at least loosely organized clusters/bands of
   east/southeastward-moving storms should evolve across most of the
   region, which carries with it the potential for a relatively
   widespread wind risk to evolve as storms spread toward the I-95
   corridor/coastal areas. 

 

[The Iceman]

2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Spring of azz. We missed out too in Warminster. Literally had a cell right over us around 830pm had one flash of lightning and a low rumble of thunder and it was over. Maybe this afternoon.

damn I thought my 3 flashes and a rumble was getting shafted...

[The Iceman]

fwiw the HRRR crushes us later on
 

 

 

3k NAM with a big squall line too

 

[Hurricane Agnes]

13 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

I'm honestly liking today better than yesterday. Full sunshine out there plus this caught my eye in the day 1 disco:

 

 

Yup.  Yesterday (at least in my area) the sun didn't come out and stay out until probably 2 pm.  Today started with sun (currently almost cloudless) and dews in the mid - upper 60s. Already 81 here now.

[Bosswx]

Insane lightning last night storms trained over me for about 2 hours. Lightning was almost non stop. Only 1.65" rain.

[Bosswx]

Just now, Hurricane Agnes said:

Yup.  Yesterday (at least in my area) the sun didn't come out and stay out until probably 2 pm.  Today started with sun (currently almost cloudless) and dews in the mid - upper 60s. Already 81 here now.

Hoping the backdoor shoots back north. I think this will definitely mitigate the threat for NYC metro.

[Ralph Wiggum]

So more of a line of storms tonight as opposed to the individual supercells from yesterday? 

We tend to always get shafted here with lines of storms for some reason. Strongest embedded cells always seem to go just S or N of my location. Plants look great tho this year so far. Nice wet spring and no super heat yet.

[bluehens]

Currently cloudless in Wilmington.  Has to be good for later.

Thoughts on timing of the start?

[The Iceman]

11 minutes ago, bluehens said:

Currently cloudless in Wilmington.  Has to be good for later.

Thoughts on timing of the start?

likely in the 4 pm - 7 pm range.

[penndotguy]

To my untrained eye it seems most of the action out West seems further South than this time yesterday, More in Kentucky weren't the storms starting to fire in Ohio this time yesterday? Ill take a nice Thunderstorm but after yesterdays action Im not sure I want to see that again. 

[CoolHandMike]

52 minutes ago, penndotguy said:

To my untrained eye it seems most of the action out West seems further South than this time yesterday, More in Kentucky weren't the storms starting to fire in Ohio this time yesterday? Ill take a nice Thunderstorm but after yesterdays action Im not sure I want to see that again. 

New mesoscale discussion is out: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2019/md0881.html

   Mesoscale Discussion 0881
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1106 AM CDT Wed May 29 2019

   Areas affected...Portions of eastern OH...the northern WV
   Panhandle...much of PA...and NJ

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 291606Z - 291730Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to develop
   this afternoon. Large hail and damaging winds should be the main
   threats, but isolated tornadoes will also be possible. Watch
   issuance is likely by 17Z (1 PM EDT).

   DISCUSSION...A shortwave trough over central OH and Lake Erie at 16Z
   will move eastward today across PA and vicinity. Isolated
   thunderstorms have recently initiated across central OH and
   northwestern PA in association with this feature. A belt of strong
   50-65 kt mid-level westerly winds will be present across eastern OH,
   much of PA, and NJ today. Long, nearly straight hodographs through
   mid levels and related 40-50 kt of effective bulk shear should favor
   scattered splitting supercells early this afternoon. Large hail will
   probably be the initial concern with this convection, with some
   increase in the damaging wind threat with time as storms potentially
   congeal into one or more bowing line segments as they move
   east-southeastward across PA into NJ. A marine front located over
   the NYC metro area and adjacent northern NJ will likely limit the
   northeastern extent of the substantial severe threat this afternoon.
   In addition to the large hail and damaging wind risk, isolated
   tornadoes could also occur over mainly parts of central/eastern PA
   into portions of NJ to the east of a weak surface low where
   low-level southwesterly winds are forecast to be somewhat stronger.
   Watch issuance will likely be needed across this region by 17Z (1 PM
   EDT).

[CoolHandMike]

And 12Z NAM 3km looks nasty this evening

* edit: whoops, didn't see that The Iceman already posted this

[penndotguy]

1 minute ago, CoolHandMike said:

New mesoscale discussion is out: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2019/md0881.html

   Mesoscale Discussion 0881
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1106 AM CDT Wed May 29 2019

   Areas affected...Portions of eastern OH...the northern WV
   Panhandle...much of PA...and NJ

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 291606Z - 291730Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to develop
   this afternoon. Large hail and damaging winds should be the main
   threats, but isolated tornadoes will also be possible. Watch
   issuance is likely by 17Z (1 PM EDT).

   DISCUSSION...A shortwave trough over central OH and Lake Erie at 16Z
   will move eastward today across PA and vicinity. Isolated
   thunderstorms have recently initiated across central OH and
   northwestern PA in association with this feature. A belt of strong
   50-65 kt mid-level westerly winds will be present across eastern OH,
   much of PA, and NJ today. Long, nearly straight hodographs through
   mid levels and related 40-50 kt of effective bulk shear should favor
   scattered splitting supercells early this afternoon. Large hail will
   probably be the initial concern with this convection, with some
   increase in the damaging wind threat with time as storms potentially
   congeal into one or more bowing line segments as they move
   east-southeastward across PA into NJ. A marine front located over
   the NYC metro area and adjacent northern NJ will likely limit the
   northeastern extent of the substantial severe threat this afternoon.
   In addition to the large hail and damaging wind risk, isolated
   tornadoes could also occur over mainly parts of central/eastern PA
   into portions of NJ to the east of a weak surface low where
   low-level southwesterly winds are forecast to be somewhat stronger.
   Watch issuance will likely be needed across this region by 17Z (1 PM
   EDT).

Yeah I think I was a little premature with my observation earlier, Looks as if they are popping up near Erie and Eastern Ohio.