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E PA/NJ/DE Summer 2019 OBS Thread


Rtd208
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4 hours ago, JTA66 said:

Hearing my first cicadas this afternoon. I'm sure the katydids aren't too far behind.

Congrats . Now it's Summer for you.  It's been a bit late for a lot of things, so maybe summer cicadas are late here in Princeton, as well.  

Not a bad day today for early July, after an inch of rain overnight.  

Can't wait for 2021, when the REAL cicadas emerge, (just kidding) after their 2004 showing.  The 17 year variety, of course.  Brood VIII, I think.  Correction: Brood X, per Google.

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Mt. Holly and Upton Ref: tomorrow.

It also looks like the very warm weather will continue and even get hotter over the next several days.

 

Mt.Holly:

 

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... 
  An active period of weather is expected Thursday and Thursday night.  
  Starting on the synoptic level, a de-amplifying shortwave trough  
  will be moving through and lifting northeastward out of the Great  
  Lakes by Thursday morning. At the surface, an accompanying surface  
  low sits in the left exit region of a respectably strong (for the  
  season) upper jet streak of around 90 kts. It will track out of  
  southern Ontario and into Quebec on Thursday. A cold front trails to  
  its south and will slowly approach through the day. The mid-Atlantic  
  will be left in a warm sector air mass. Cloudiness and increased  
  moisture will keep our temperatures a bit cooler than previous days,  
  but with higher humidity, as will be discussed below. 
   
  By early Thursday morning, a light but steady southerly surface flow  
  will have developed in the modest gradient between the departing  
  high pressure and the approaching frontal system. Strengthening  
  southwesterly flow will also develop through the remainder of the  
  low and into the mid-levels. This will lead to a truly impressive  
  surge in PWAT values early tomorrow, from the mundane values of  
  around 1.25" today to a tropical 2-2.25" or even slightly higher by  
  late tomorrow. What appears to be aiding in this large and rapid  
  moisture surge is a direct connection to very rich moisture in the  
  Gulf of Mexico associated with a developing tropical cyclone there.  
  So the air mass ahead of this frontal system will have a definite  
  tropical fingerprint to it.  
   
  Given these ingredients, we are primed for locally heavy rainfall  
  tomorrow. The front itself is fairly progressive, and expect there  
  will be either a solid or more likely broken line of showers and  
  storms associated with the actual front which will move along fairly  
  steadily. What`s more concerning is the rapidly moistening and  
  uncapped environment ahead of the front, which would seem to favor  
  additional showers and thunderstorms developing well ahead of the  
  front tomorrow afternoon even as forcing is modest. Unlike recent  
  heavy rain events, the vertical wind profile tomorrow is not nearly  
  as stagnant; storms that develop will move, at least gradually.  
  However, more of a concern tomorrow will be training and  
  backbuilding convection within an air mass with deep moisture  
  funneling into it. Moderate deep layer shear profiles are supportive  
  of dominant multi-cellular activity with potential for back- 
  building, training, and regeneration especially given the high air  
  mass moisture values. Thus, localized flash flooding appears  
  possible especially given continued high soil moisture anomalies  
  from this wet spring and early summer. Strongly considered issuing a  
  Flash Flood Watch but after discussion with neighboring offices and  
  WPC will defer that decision for now and continue to carry the  
  mention in the HWO. Still a little hard to say what specific areas  
  will see the greatest threat, with a wide spread in guidance.  
  However, the fact that many of the hi-res models are showing QPF  
  bullseyes of 2-3" or greater is concerning, so this will bear close  
  watching. 
   
  The other concern tomorrow, while probably less of a threat than  
  excessive rain, is severe weather. Cloud cover may be fairly  
  extensive during the day, which would act to limit instability, but  
  guidance is generally supportive of at least 1000J/kg of MLCAPE  
  building by afternoon, perhaps up to 2000J/kg. Deep layer bulk shear  
  will be slowly increasing but still only moderate, not much better  
  than 30 kts from 0-6km during the day. Moisture obviously is not in  
  question. Main concern will be damaging wind gusts within multi- 
  cellular convection, especially if instability is greater than  
  expected. However, attention is also drawn to the southerly, or  
  perhaps even locally south-southeasterly, surface flow. This will  
  act to enhance low level veering given southwesterlies aloft, so  
  some rotation is possible in storms that develop and cannot rule out  
  a brief tornado especially if we see any fleeting supercellular  
  structures. Low LCLs associated with tropical moisture also lend  
  some support here. Latest SPC Day 2 outlook/discussion covers this  
  well also. Greatest severe weather threat will be across central and  
  western portions of the region. 
   
  Overnight, attention will turn more to the frontal line itself.  
  Given the overnight timing and what may be an increasingly worked  
  over atmosphere, that line will probably be fading out as it  
  approaches, and expect that if we have problems with flooding or  
  severe weather tomorrow it will happen more in the late afternoon  
  and evening as opposed to overnight when the front approaches.  
  Still, showers or storms are possible throughout the overnight as  
  the front will not move through until very late at night or more  
  likely on Friday. Locally heavy rain will remain possible in any  
  convection until the front passes. Warm and very humid overnight  
  since we remain in the tropical air ahead of the front. 
   
  && 

Upton:

 

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Heights begin to fall Thu as a trough moving through the Great
Lakes and Ohio Valley approaches. A warm front will also be
approaching from the southwest. Cloud cover will increase and
there could be a few isold showers mainly W of NYC into the
early aftn. Shower/tstm chances increase thereafter into Thu
night as the front approaches, and PW will be increasing with
weak shear, thus any tstms that develop could be slow-moving
heavy rainers, in particular from late evening into the
overnight after midnight as a 25-30 kt H9 LLJ moves across.
Could see some isold flash flooding, especially with any storms
that move across the NY/NJ metro area and into southern
portions of the Lower Hudson Valley. This threat not expected to
be widespread, and WPC forecast in general agreement with only
a Day 2 marginal risk of excessive rainfall for the metro area
north/west.

High temps on Thu will be limited by cloud cover, with most
areas seeing 80-85, and upper 70s for the south shore of Long
Island and coastal SE CT. Thu night will be muggy, with lows in
the upper 60s/lower 70s and dewpoints in the same ballpark.

Upper troughing lags behind on Fri, so have sided with slower
progression of the cold front per NAM, with continued likely
showers/tstms out east into the morning. Activity should be
more scattered into the afternoon and late day with the
approaching cold front as mid levels dry out but blyr remains
moist.

High temps on Fri should reach the upper 80s/lower 90s in NE NJ
and NYC, and with high dewpoints the heat index could touch 95
in in parts of urban NE NJ. Highs just to the north/east will be
mid 80s, and lower 80s across the forks of Long Island and SE
CT.

There will be a moderate rip current risk at the ocean beaches
on Thursday.
.HYDROLOGY...
Moderate to locally heavy rainfall is likely late Thursday through
Thursday night, with additional rainfall possible Friday.
Rainfall totals of 3/4 to 1 inch are possible with locally
higher amounts, with a low risk for localized flash flooding,
mainly across the lower Hudson Valley into NE NJ. Localized
urban flooding is also possible.

&&
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On 7/8/2019 at 5:07 PM, JTA66 said:

Hearing my first cicadas this afternoon. I'm sure the katydids aren't too far behind.

Heard our first katydids here last night, and maybe one or two more tonight. A few locusts since late last week, and still have a decent amount of lightning bugs, although they seemed to have peaked 5 or so days ago. Great show this year!

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Nice cool mornings.  Was about 69F with dews at 60 before 6am this morning.  Looks like a general flash flood watch for most of our region between 2pm and overnight.  

 

Edit: went from partly cloudy back home to a full deck of clouds out here by York.  

Also that storm in the gulf doesn't look good for NOLA.tracked further east overnight but still keeping it on the dirty side of the storm.

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1 hour ago, ChasingFlakes said:

Nice cool mornings.  Was about 69F with dews at 60 before 6am this morning.  Looks like a general flash flood watch for most of our region between 2pm and overnight.  

 

Edit: went from partly cloudy back home to a full deck of clouds out here by York.  

Also that storm in the gulf doesn't look good for NOLA.tracked further east overnight but still keeping it on the dirty side of the storm.

Yeah, the Euro bumped east. Also interesting is it has the low over the Delmarva @ 192 hours. Who knows how it will play out, but something to track for now.

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After a low of 70 this morning, was already up to 84 by 9:30 with a dp of 69.  You can definitely feel the juiced up difference this morning versus yesterday. 

Currently 85 and partly sunny as the clouds start to roll in and thicken.  I see a NW-to-SE-oriented line to the west slowly pushing to the east, so it won't be long (assuming that holds together).

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TS Barry has arrived (abbreviated) -

Quote

000
WTNT32 KNHC 111452
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Barry Advisory Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022019
1000 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2019

...DISTURBANCE BECOMES TROPICAL STORM BARRY...
...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HEAVY RAINS, AND WIND CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.8N 88.7W
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

 

ts-barry-145531_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind-07112019.png

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15 hours ago, KamuSnow said:

Heard our first katydids here last night, and maybe one or two more tonight. A few locusts since late last week, and still have a decent amount of lightning bugs, although they seemed to have peaked 5 or so days ago. Great show this year!

The lightning bugs are doing great around here.  Was tempted to try a time photo of them flashing over a minute or so, but am too lazy.  We'll have real lightning this evening, as things develop.  

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Severe Thunderstorm Warning was issued and I am literally right on the eastern line of it (the radio activated for it).

Quote

Severe Thunderstorm Warning


Severe Thunderstorm Warning
DEC003-NJC011-015-033-PAC045-091-101-111845-
/O.NEW.KPHI.SV.W.0218.190711T1744Z-190711T1845Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
144 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2019

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Central New Castle County in northern Delaware...
  Northwestern Cumberland County in southern New Jersey...
  Salem County in southern New Jersey...
  Northwestern Gloucester County in southern New Jersey...
  South central Montgomery County in southeastern Pennsylvania...
  Western Philadelphia County in southeastern Pennsylvania...
  Delaware County in southeastern Pennsylvania...

* Until 245 PM EDT.

* At 144 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
  extending from Ashland to Smyrna, moving northeast at 25 mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Damage to roofs, siding, trees, and power lines is
           possible.

* Locations impacted include...
  Philadelphia, Wilmington, Bridgeton, Chester, West Deptford,
  Glassboro, Pennsville, Yeadon, Woodbury, Carneys Point,
  Conshohocken, Folcroft, Ambler, Swarthmore, Elsmere, Paulsboro, New
  Castle, Penns Grove, Salem and Narberth.

People attending PES Explosion Response and Recovery should seek safe
shelter immediately!

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Intense thunderstorm lines can produce brief tornadoes and widespread
significant wind damage. Although a tornado is not immediately
likely, it is best to move to an interior room on the lowest floor of
a building. These storms may cause serious injury and significant
property damage.

&&

LAT...LON 3984 7560 3993 7554 3998 7544 4020 7519
      3941 7514 3934 7536 3944 7546 3946 7554
      3957 7551 3962 7557 3966 7552 3972 7551
      3970 7552 3962 7561 3959 7557 3946 7559
      3936 7552 3931 7563 3981 7570
TIME...MOT...LOC 1744Z 218DEG 22KT 3982 7565 3931 7561

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

Iovino

 

radar-zoom6-07112019.png

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2 hours ago, stemwinder said:

The lightning bugs are doing great around here.  Was tempted to try a time photo of them flashing over a minute or so, but am too lazy.  We'll have real lightning this evening, as things develop.  

Lol, I tried taking a video, and you can see them, but barely. We had a nice t'storm earlier, with about 0.60" of rain. I can hear the next batch rumbling in the distance

 

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Umm, wow. Just went on Berks Fire Alerts facebook page and found this posted only 1 minute ago:

***Delayed Post - 10 Min***
Douglass Twp: Grist Mill Rd IAO Locust Dr - WATER RESCUE - Occupied Vehicle stuck in multiple feet of water - 2 pediatric patients, 1 pregnant female - Marine 16 E/R 
M07

 
  • Fire Alerts of Berks County
    Fire Alerts of Berks County VEHICLE NOW TAKEN AWAY BY THE WATER; VEHICLE FLIPPED OVER AND IS TRAVELING RAPIDLY 

    M07
    1
     
     
  • Fire Alerts of Berks County
    Fire Alerts of Berks County Vehicle rocking; in multiple feet of water; water is very rapid

    Chief 16 doesn’t feel confident w/ committing his Marine unit due to the rapid changing conditions with the water 


    Water is now up to the steering wheel

    M07
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