stemwinder Posted July 9, 2019 Share Posted July 9, 2019 4 hours ago, JTA66 said: Hearing my first cicadas this afternoon. I'm sure the katydids aren't too far behind. Congrats . Now it's Summer for you. It's been a bit late for a lot of things, so maybe summer cicadas are late here in Princeton, as well. Not a bad day today for early July, after an inch of rain overnight. Can't wait for 2021, when the REAL cicadas emerge, (just kidding) after their 2004 showing. The 17 year variety, of course. Brood VIII, I think. Correction: Brood X, per Google. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted July 9, 2019 Share Posted July 9, 2019 Next week looks torch city with Brazil rain forest dews Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 9, 2019 Author Share Posted July 9, 2019 Current temp 89/DP 63/RH 35% High for the day was 91 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted July 9, 2019 Share Posted July 9, 2019 Just fell short of 90 today (high of 89) but the dp had a low around 57 but has since crept up to the low 60s later this afternoon and you could feel the difference (although still not like last week). Currently 82 and partly cloudy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 10, 2019 Author Share Posted July 10, 2019 Current temp 91/DP 69/RH 48% High for the day was 92 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted July 10, 2019 Share Posted July 10, 2019 Made it to 91 today just before 3 pm and with the dews in the mid-60s, you could feel a bit of humidity but it still wasn't too bad thanks to a light but active breeze. Currently mostly sunny and 87. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 10, 2019 Author Share Posted July 10, 2019 Mt. Holly and Upton Ref: tomorrow. It also looks like the very warm weather will continue and even get hotter over the next several days. Mt.Holly: .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... An active period of weather is expected Thursday and Thursday night. Starting on the synoptic level, a de-amplifying shortwave trough will be moving through and lifting northeastward out of the Great Lakes by Thursday morning. At the surface, an accompanying surface low sits in the left exit region of a respectably strong (for the season) upper jet streak of around 90 kts. It will track out of southern Ontario and into Quebec on Thursday. A cold front trails to its south and will slowly approach through the day. The mid-Atlantic will be left in a warm sector air mass. Cloudiness and increased moisture will keep our temperatures a bit cooler than previous days, but with higher humidity, as will be discussed below. By early Thursday morning, a light but steady southerly surface flow will have developed in the modest gradient between the departing high pressure and the approaching frontal system. Strengthening southwesterly flow will also develop through the remainder of the low and into the mid-levels. This will lead to a truly impressive surge in PWAT values early tomorrow, from the mundane values of around 1.25" today to a tropical 2-2.25" or even slightly higher by late tomorrow. What appears to be aiding in this large and rapid moisture surge is a direct connection to very rich moisture in the Gulf of Mexico associated with a developing tropical cyclone there. So the air mass ahead of this frontal system will have a definite tropical fingerprint to it. Given these ingredients, we are primed for locally heavy rainfall tomorrow. The front itself is fairly progressive, and expect there will be either a solid or more likely broken line of showers and storms associated with the actual front which will move along fairly steadily. What`s more concerning is the rapidly moistening and uncapped environment ahead of the front, which would seem to favor additional showers and thunderstorms developing well ahead of the front tomorrow afternoon even as forcing is modest. Unlike recent heavy rain events, the vertical wind profile tomorrow is not nearly as stagnant; storms that develop will move, at least gradually. However, more of a concern tomorrow will be training and backbuilding convection within an air mass with deep moisture funneling into it. Moderate deep layer shear profiles are supportive of dominant multi-cellular activity with potential for back- building, training, and regeneration especially given the high air mass moisture values. Thus, localized flash flooding appears possible especially given continued high soil moisture anomalies from this wet spring and early summer. Strongly considered issuing a Flash Flood Watch but after discussion with neighboring offices and WPC will defer that decision for now and continue to carry the mention in the HWO. Still a little hard to say what specific areas will see the greatest threat, with a wide spread in guidance. However, the fact that many of the hi-res models are showing QPF bullseyes of 2-3" or greater is concerning, so this will bear close watching. The other concern tomorrow, while probably less of a threat than excessive rain, is severe weather. Cloud cover may be fairly extensive during the day, which would act to limit instability, but guidance is generally supportive of at least 1000J/kg of MLCAPE building by afternoon, perhaps up to 2000J/kg. Deep layer bulk shear will be slowly increasing but still only moderate, not much better than 30 kts from 0-6km during the day. Moisture obviously is not in question. Main concern will be damaging wind gusts within multi- cellular convection, especially if instability is greater than expected. However, attention is also drawn to the southerly, or perhaps even locally south-southeasterly, surface flow. This will act to enhance low level veering given southwesterlies aloft, so some rotation is possible in storms that develop and cannot rule out a brief tornado especially if we see any fleeting supercellular structures. Low LCLs associated with tropical moisture also lend some support here. Latest SPC Day 2 outlook/discussion covers this well also. Greatest severe weather threat will be across central and western portions of the region. Overnight, attention will turn more to the frontal line itself. Given the overnight timing and what may be an increasingly worked over atmosphere, that line will probably be fading out as it approaches, and expect that if we have problems with flooding or severe weather tomorrow it will happen more in the late afternoon and evening as opposed to overnight when the front approaches. Still, showers or storms are possible throughout the overnight as the front will not move through until very late at night or more likely on Friday. Locally heavy rain will remain possible in any convection until the front passes. Warm and very humid overnight since we remain in the tropical air ahead of the front. && Upton: .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... Heights begin to fall Thu as a trough moving through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley approaches. A warm front will also be approaching from the southwest. Cloud cover will increase and there could be a few isold showers mainly W of NYC into the early aftn. Shower/tstm chances increase thereafter into Thu night as the front approaches, and PW will be increasing with weak shear, thus any tstms that develop could be slow-moving heavy rainers, in particular from late evening into the overnight after midnight as a 25-30 kt H9 LLJ moves across. Could see some isold flash flooding, especially with any storms that move across the NY/NJ metro area and into southern portions of the Lower Hudson Valley. This threat not expected to be widespread, and WPC forecast in general agreement with only a Day 2 marginal risk of excessive rainfall for the metro area north/west. High temps on Thu will be limited by cloud cover, with most areas seeing 80-85, and upper 70s for the south shore of Long Island and coastal SE CT. Thu night will be muggy, with lows in the upper 60s/lower 70s and dewpoints in the same ballpark. Upper troughing lags behind on Fri, so have sided with slower progression of the cold front per NAM, with continued likely showers/tstms out east into the morning. Activity should be more scattered into the afternoon and late day with the approaching cold front as mid levels dry out but blyr remains moist. High temps on Fri should reach the upper 80s/lower 90s in NE NJ and NYC, and with high dewpoints the heat index could touch 95 in in parts of urban NE NJ. Highs just to the north/east will be mid 80s, and lower 80s across the forks of Long Island and SE CT. There will be a moderate rip current risk at the ocean beaches on Thursday. .HYDROLOGY... Moderate to locally heavy rainfall is likely late Thursday through Thursday night, with additional rainfall possible Friday. Rainfall totals of 3/4 to 1 inch are possible with locally higher amounts, with a low risk for localized flash flooding, mainly across the lower Hudson Valley into NE NJ. Localized urban flooding is also possible. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 10, 2019 Author Share Posted July 10, 2019 Since May I have had 13 days with a temp of 90 or above so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted July 11, 2019 Share Posted July 11, 2019 On 7/8/2019 at 5:07 PM, JTA66 said: Hearing my first cicadas this afternoon. I'm sure the katydids aren't too far behind. Heard our first katydids here last night, and maybe one or two more tonight. A few locusts since late last week, and still have a decent amount of lightning bugs, although they seemed to have peaked 5 or so days ago. Great show this year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted July 11, 2019 Share Posted July 11, 2019 Weather World went hot on their 30 day outlook. Prepare to incinerate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 11, 2019 Author Share Posted July 11, 2019 Warm and muggy night out there. Current temp 78/DP 68/RH 65% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 11, 2019 Author Share Posted July 11, 2019 Flash Flood Watch in effect here from this afternoon thru late tonight for 1-3" of rain w/locally higher amounts possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChasingFlakes Posted July 11, 2019 Share Posted July 11, 2019 Nice cool mornings. Was about 69F with dews at 60 before 6am this morning. Looks like a general flash flood watch for most of our region between 2pm and overnight. Edit: went from partly cloudy back home to a full deck of clouds out here by York. Also that storm in the gulf doesn't look good for NOLA.tracked further east overnight but still keeping it on the dirty side of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted July 11, 2019 Share Posted July 11, 2019 1 hour ago, ChasingFlakes said: Nice cool mornings. Was about 69F with dews at 60 before 6am this morning. Looks like a general flash flood watch for most of our region between 2pm and overnight. Edit: went from partly cloudy back home to a full deck of clouds out here by York. Also that storm in the gulf doesn't look good for NOLA.tracked further east overnight but still keeping it on the dirty side of the storm. Yeah, the Euro bumped east. Also interesting is it has the low over the Delmarva @ 192 hours. Who knows how it will play out, but something to track for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted July 11, 2019 Share Posted July 11, 2019 After a low of 70 this morning, was already up to 84 by 9:30 with a dp of 69. You can definitely feel the juiced up difference this morning versus yesterday. Currently 85 and partly sunny as the clouds start to roll in and thicken. I see a NW-to-SE-oriented line to the west slowly pushing to the east, so it won't be long (assuming that holds together). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted July 11, 2019 Share Posted July 11, 2019 TS Barry has arrived (abbreviated) - Quote 000 WTNT32 KNHC 111452 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Barry Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019 1000 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2019 ...DISTURBANCE BECOMES TROPICAL STORM BARRY... ...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HEAVY RAINS, AND WIND CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.8N 88.7W ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stemwinder Posted July 11, 2019 Share Posted July 11, 2019 15 hours ago, KamuSnow said: Heard our first katydids here last night, and maybe one or two more tonight. A few locusts since late last week, and still have a decent amount of lightning bugs, although they seemed to have peaked 5 or so days ago. Great show this year! The lightning bugs are doing great around here. Was tempted to try a time photo of them flashing over a minute or so, but am too lazy. We'll have real lightning this evening, as things develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted July 11, 2019 Share Posted July 11, 2019 Severe Thunderstorm Warning was issued and I am literally right on the eastern line of it (the radio activated for it). Quote Severe Thunderstorm Warning Severe Thunderstorm Warning DEC003-NJC011-015-033-PAC045-091-101-111845- /O.NEW.KPHI.SV.W.0218.190711T1744Z-190711T1845Z/ BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 144 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2019 The National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Central New Castle County in northern Delaware... Northwestern Cumberland County in southern New Jersey... Salem County in southern New Jersey... Northwestern Gloucester County in southern New Jersey... South central Montgomery County in southeastern Pennsylvania... Western Philadelphia County in southeastern Pennsylvania... Delaware County in southeastern Pennsylvania... * Until 245 PM EDT. * At 144 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from Ashland to Smyrna, moving northeast at 25 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damage to roofs, siding, trees, and power lines is possible. * Locations impacted include... Philadelphia, Wilmington, Bridgeton, Chester, West Deptford, Glassboro, Pennsville, Yeadon, Woodbury, Carneys Point, Conshohocken, Folcroft, Ambler, Swarthmore, Elsmere, Paulsboro, New Castle, Penns Grove, Salem and Narberth. People attending PES Explosion Response and Recovery should seek safe shelter immediately! PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. Intense thunderstorm lines can produce brief tornadoes and widespread significant wind damage. Although a tornado is not immediately likely, it is best to move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. These storms may cause serious injury and significant property damage. && LAT...LON 3984 7560 3993 7554 3998 7544 4020 7519 3941 7514 3934 7536 3944 7546 3946 7554 3957 7551 3962 7557 3966 7552 3972 7551 3970 7552 3962 7561 3959 7557 3946 7559 3936 7552 3931 7563 3981 7570 TIME...MOT...LOC 1744Z 218DEG 22KT 3982 7565 3931 7561 TORNADO...POSSIBLE HAIL...0.75IN WIND...60MPH $$ Iovino Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted July 11, 2019 Share Posted July 11, 2019 Now getting rain. Not gully washer yet but pretty heavy. Temp hit 88 before the clouds lowered it and now the rain taking it down more. Currently 84 with heavy rain. Up to 0.07" at post time (no thunder/lightning yet). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted July 11, 2019 Share Posted July 11, 2019 Now getting gully washer rain. Temp is down to 79. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted July 11, 2019 Share Posted July 11, 2019 Got 0.53" so far out of that round with 2"/hr rates for a time. It just steamed everything up big time now. Temp is currently 75 with light rain and dps in the mid 70s now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted July 11, 2019 Share Posted July 11, 2019 2 hours ago, stemwinder said: The lightning bugs are doing great around here. Was tempted to try a time photo of them flashing over a minute or so, but am too lazy. We'll have real lightning this evening, as things develop. Lol, I tried taking a video, and you can see them, but barely. We had a nice t'storm earlier, with about 0.60" of rain. I can hear the next batch rumbling in the distance 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted July 11, 2019 Share Posted July 11, 2019 Quite a wallop here in Green Lane. A few close strikes have cause the lights to momentarily brown before gradually over-brightening (weird) . Between Reading and Pottstown 422 is flooded over the Median. A weir has been made out of the median holding the water on the westbound side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted July 11, 2019 Share Posted July 11, 2019 Some pretty bad flooding going on in southern Lehigh and Berks Counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted July 11, 2019 Share Posted July 11, 2019 Umm, wow. Just went on Berks Fire Alerts facebook page and found this posted only 1 minute ago: ***Delayed Post - 10 Min*** Douglass Twp: Grist Mill Rd IAO Locust Dr - WATER RESCUE - Occupied Vehicle stuck in multiple feet of water - 2 pediatric patients, 1 pregnant female - Marine 16 E/R M07 Fire Alerts of Berks County VEHICLE NOW TAKEN AWAY BY THE WATER; VEHICLE FLIPPED OVER AND IS TRAVELING RAPIDLY M07 1 3m Fire Alerts of Berks County Vehicle rocking; in multiple feet of water; water is very rapidChief 16 doesn’t feel confident w/ committing his Marine unit due to the rapid changing conditions with the water Water is now up to the steering wheelM07 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted July 11, 2019 Share Posted July 11, 2019 Just had a lightning bolt here that had to be 6" diameter, or it sounded like it at least. A couple miles away, but the boom was over the top! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted July 11, 2019 Share Posted July 11, 2019 Hearing thunder again with the leading edge of the heavy precip line coming into my area. Already added 0.11" to my earlier 0.53". Currently 75 with varying light - moderate rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 11, 2019 Author Share Posted July 11, 2019 Current temp 77/DP 74/RH 90% Picked up 0.50" of rain so far today. High for the day was 87 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Delaware Valley Weather Posted July 11, 2019 Share Posted July 11, 2019 Over 4” in Exton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted July 11, 2019 Share Posted July 11, 2019 EAS for Flash Flooding and Severe Thunderstorm Warning up (including my area). Currently at 0.66" and it got dark real fast. Looks weird and the windows are steamed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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