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E PA/NJ/DE Summer 2019 OBS Thread


Rtd208
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8 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

Nice.  Am surprised you haven't seen mammatus around your area. I usually manage to randomly catch a glimpse of some maybe a few times a year if I happen to take the time to go outside when some storm cells are moving near or into my area or I am out somewhere and a gust front is coming soon.

Me too, I always keep a lookout in recent years.  Theres a lot of trees around my property so unless they're right overhead I probably end up missing them.  I did catch a glimpse of 3 Kelvin-helmholtz wave clouds in NJ in the spring, which I'd imagine are more rare.  Theres a pic in the spring thread.

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3 minutes ago, ChasingFlakes said:

Me too, I always keep a lookout in recent years.  Theres a lot of trees around my property so unless they're right overhead I probably end up missing them.  I did catch a glimpse of 3 Kelvin-helmholtz wave clouds in NJ in the spring, which I'd imagine are more rare.  Theres a pic in the spring thread.

I've seen those wave clouds too (although not recently), which are pretty cool - especially if you are in a spot where you can see a long strip of them.  And yeah, if you have trees all around, it can be hard to catch some of these unique clouds.  If you are out at a mall or shopping strip and in a parking lot, you can often get a better view.

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33 minutes ago, Newman said:

Those storms rolling in from the west will at the minimum bring really heavy rains.

198923839_COD-GOES-East-subregional-Mid_Atlantic.radar.20190706.210500.gif-overmap-bars.thumb.gif.0803c7dee00277235524b89b47a07259.gif

There's a cell popping up to the west of here that with the storm motions earlier from WSW to ENE I would expect to hit here, but it appears that even those isolated cells are now moving more WNW to ESE, in advance of that main line, which looks impressive.

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Larry Cosgrove is still going with hot temps in his medium range/longer term discussions even going as far as saying 100 degree readings could perhaps get close to the big cities of the Mid-Atlantic/New England. He also believes it is worth keeping an eye on possible tropical development down in the Gulf over the next several days.

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After all was said and done yesterday, my final rain total was just a hundredth of an inch more after the main precip line came through, than what I had reported with the precursor stuff -  total for the day of 0.22" (i.e., most of the storm associated with the front had fizzled as it approached and arrived in my area).

It's currently 81 with dews in the mid-upper 60s (vs the 70s this time yesterday) so not as steam bath as yesterday, and partly sunny.

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Looks like hotter times continuing/ahead for sure with both Mt.Holly and Upton NWS offices forecasting high temperatures in the upper 80's starting on Tuesday increasing to the lower 90's by next Sunday. I was also surprised to see Mt.Holly mention we could possibly be affected by moisture from what could become a tropical system down in the Gulf later this week but there is still plenty of uncertainty with that this far out. 

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17 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Looks like hotter times ahead for sure with both Mt.Holly and Upton NWS offices forecasting high temperatures in the upper 80's starting on Tuesday increasing to the lower 90's by next Sunday. I was also surprised to see Mt.Holly mention we could possibly be effecting by moisture from what could become a tropical system down in the Gulf later this week but there is still plenty of uncertainty with that this far out. 

Could be because the water is pretty toasty there at the moment and you can see circulation trying to get going down there.

 

sst-gulfmex.cf-07062019.gif

CODNEXLAB-GOES-East-regional-gulf-13-16_21Z-20190707_map_data-7-1n-10-100-gom-disturbance.gif

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25 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

Could be because the water is pretty toasty there at the moment and you can see circulation trying to get going down there.

 

Yeah, the ocean is very warm almost everywhere.   Tropical systems shouldn't have too much trouble with strength, at least as far as the ocean is concerned.  

 

 

Ocean temp.png

Ocean temp anomaly.png

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Didnt realize it was 88F sea temps along the gulf coast of Florida, it was like bathwater. I'd never been there in the summer so it was a big shock.  Especially compared to the last time I was in the ocean which was early memorial day at sea isle, water was ~68F so I wore a 3/2 full wetsuit.

I can definitely see how theres room for tropical development, is there any shear forecasted for the area that would possible disrupt any development?  How can you look for shear in the models? That's something I've been wondering. 

Also the weather was nice this evening, there was a bit of a sun shower while I was at the skatepark in collegeville, which helped cool things off with the associated breeze. 

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15 minutes ago, ChasingFlakes said:

Didnt realize it was 88F sea temps along the gulf coast of Florida, it was like bathwater. I'd never been there in the summer so it was a big shock.  Especially compared to the last time I was in the ocean which was early memorial day at sea isle, water was ~68F so I wore a 3/2 full wetsuit.

I can definitely see how theres room for tropical development, is there any shear forecasted for the area that would possible disrupt any development?  How can you look for shear in the models? That's something I've been wondering. 

Also the weather was nice this evening, there was a bit of a sun shower while I was at the skatepark in collegeville, which helped cool things off with the associated breeze. 

They (NHC) have a little discussion on it here - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5

Quote

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A trough of low pressure located over the southeastern United States
is forecast to move southward toward the northeastern Gulf of
Mexico, where a broad area of low pressure will likely form in a few
days. Some gradual development is possible thereafter and a tropical
depression could form by the end of the week while the low meanders
near the northern Gulf Coast. Regardless of development, this system
has the potential to produce heavy rainfall along portions of the
central and eastern U.S. Gulf Coast later this week. For more
information about the rainfall threat, please see products issued by
your local weather forecast office and the Weather Prediction
Center. Interests along the northern Gulf Coast and Florida
peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

Forecaster Zelinsky

 

nhc-disturbance-two_atl_5d0-07072019.png

nhc-disturbance-two_atl_2d0-07072019.png

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Well after on and off light rain this morning, the sun is now coming out (or at least trying to).  Picked up 0.15" from the intermittent showers.  Dews are down in the lower 60s so much better than the past couple days but still a bit sticky with the rain.  Temp has stayed around 70/71 most of the day (low was 69 at one point) but it is now up to 73 and generally overcast with some breaks in the ceiling for the sun to pop in and out.

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On 7/2/2019 at 12:19 PM, stemwinder said:

This 82 year old lurker thanks you all for your observations and remarks.

For me, Summer is official when I hear the first Cicada sing.  Then it gets better when the katydids start later on, at night.   Welcome to the new, hotter Summers. - 

  Still waiting for the cicada. - cheers -

Hearing my first cicadas this afternoon. I'm sure the katydids aren't too far behind.

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