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E PA/NJ/DE Summer 2019 OBS Thread


Rtd208
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Had near constant thunder preceding the line that just came through. Then it poured enough to completely overwhelm the gutters (again!). I think we even had a brief moment of pea-sized hail towards the end as well. Was reading 89.3° right before I went out to check on things; now it's down to 69.4° F. Holy temperature gradient, batman!

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Getting the seven-ten split here as the best of these storms are passing to my north and south. The most impressive part was the gust front, but even that was probably only in the 30-35mph range. Nothing more than a heavy shower with some thunder & lightning. Maxed out at 88F again, down to 79F now.

 

Looks like the 18Z NAM wants to bring another line through later tonight.

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Looks like it was falling apart as it came over here in NW Philly.  Must have hit the hills here and got disrupted.  Have had some occasional thunder but am not seeing any lightning.  Winds have been gusty but not excessive and the rain has been more garden-variety thundershower, not gully washer.  Currently at 0.08" of rain so far.  Temp is down to 79.

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Looks like more heat similar to what we just had coming up mid/late this week with a chance of rain/storms. 

 

Mt.Holly:

 

 

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... 
   
  Synoptic Overview: 
   
  The mid-lvl low will have cleared the area by the start of the 
  period, and generally zonal mid-lvl flow will then prevail for  
  most of the extended as the area finds itself on the northern  
  periphery of an increasing flat ridge centered over the SE US.  
  Active weather will largely be driven diurnally-driven 
  convection aided by weak convectively- enhanced waves  
  interacting with nearby weak thermal boundaries.  
   
  Specifics regarding precipitation chances are difficult in this  
  regime as precipitation will largely be in the form of diurnal  
  convection with dynamic forcing being weak due to a lack of  
  appreciable height/temperature gradients (and resulting flow). 
   
  Dailies: 
   
  Monday... Monday will likely be the nicest day of the week as  
  high pressure briefly builds in SW of the area. High  
  temperatures will generally be in the 80s (with dewpoints only  
  reaching around 60) with limited clouds, and fairly light winds. 
   
  Tuesday... A weak shortwave will approach the area on Tuesday  
  bringing a chance of showers and perhaps thunderstorms. Last 
  night`s 00Z guidance were in fairly good agreement that this 
  system would be fairly weak and arrive Tuesday morning. The  
  Euro and Canadian still retain this solution, however the NAM  
  and GFS have trended slower with the system, holding off until  
  Tuesday afternoon/evening. This would potentially lead to 
  stronger precipitation due to better diurnal-convective timing. 
  Although I added slight Chc.PoPs Tuesday PM to account for  
  these new solutions, generally left higher PoPs (still only  
  Chc.) for Tuesday AM. High temperatures will run about 5 degrees 
  warmer than Monday with winds remaining light. 
   
  Wednesday... Moisture will be on the increase into Wednesday  
  however guidance is not in agreement on if it will yet be  
  sufficient to initiate diurnal convection Wednesday PM  
  (therefore went with only Slight Chc. PoPs) Temperatures will  
  remain warm with highs generally in the 90s outside of the  
  coast and higher elevation areas. 
   
  Thursday-Saturday... Sufficient Moisture (PWATs near or above 2 
  inches, dewpoints at or above 70) should be present by the end 
  of the week to support (at least) scattered afternoon 
  thunderstorms each day. It will also become increasing muggy  
  and heat indices approaching 100 will be possible for portions  
  of the urban corridor Friday and Saturday. On the plus side  
  (after the last couple of days) the organized severe threat  
  looks limited due to very weak flow (at all levels). Given the 
  abundant moisture and weak flow there may be somewhat of a hydro 
  threat, however, it is currently too far out to say for sure. 
   
  && 

Upton:

 

 

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Region will be on the northern edge of southern ridging, with a
relatively active flow mid to late week. Models signaling
flattening of the ridge this weekend as Hudson`s Bay low begins
to slide into Quebec and exert more influence on Great lakes and
Northeast.

Generally increasingly warm and humid conditions Wed through
Fri, with a low to moderate potential for heat indices to reach
95 degrees for NYC/NJ metro and surroundings Thursday thru
Saturday.

Potential for afternoon convection Thu and Fri. At this
point, the bulk of this convective activity and even possible
MCS`s appear more likely to the south of the area, based on
ridge orientation, but will have to monitor. Better chance for
organized convection may come next weekend with approach of cold
front, but low predictability this far out.

&&
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1 hour ago, stemwinder said:

This 82 year old lurker thanks you all for your observations and remarks.

For me, Summer is official when I hear the first Cicada sing.  Then it gets better when the katydids start later on, at night.   Welcome to the new, hotter Summers. - 

  Still waiting for the cicada. - cheers -

Hey there. Don't be such a stranger/lurker....join in. My old man just had his 86th birthday last Thursday. I always like seeing him doing something. If he's just staring at the TV or isolating I get worried. 

Agree about the Cicada and katydids....I haven't heard anything yet. Their sound just screams summer.

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2 hours ago, stemwinder said:

This 82 year old lurker thanks you all for your observations and remarks.

For me, Summer is official when I hear the first Cicada sing.  Then it gets better when the katydids start later on, at night.   Welcome to the new, hotter Summers. - 

  Still waiting for the cicada. - cheers -

My mom would have been 89 this year but her younger sister will be 84 in a couple months.  God bless your generation!

Actually made it up to 85 yesterday and the dews stayed below 60 so a really nice day. Today is a different story where the dp is @ 63 and slowly climbing with a temp of 91. Have been seeing on and off cirrus clouds overhead earlier today but now the cumulus is coming in from the south and it's getting a little hazy, but still mostly sunny.  Summer = lightning bugs, crickets, cicadas, and katydids for sure!

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Small but powerful storm just blew through. Completely different from the last time, where there was literally continuous rumbling thunder throughout the event; this time there was a whole lot of flickering and very little thunder... until the storm passed by. Now my apartment is shaking from the thunder every minute or so.

Torrential rain once again overwhelmed the gutters. Cooled right off though, which is nice. 70.5°F and 89% RH.

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11 minutes ago, KamuSnow said:

Pretty vigorous storm here, had everything except hail. Lots of lightning and thunder, pretty gusty winds. Picked up 0.90" of rain in about 30 minutes.

Dealing with the same storm now.  Velocity was showing severe winds but they only hit the surface at 38 MPH, at least at my station.  Very little lightning here.  Decent rain, though.  

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1 hour ago, BBasile said:

Dealing with the same storm now.  Velocity was showing severe winds but they only hit the surface at 38 MPH, at least at my station.  Very little lightning here.  Decent rain, though.  

Yeah it was warned here, but the winds imby weren't much over 40, which I'm okay with due to liking the tall trees!

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