June 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[forkyfork]

more good mid level lapse rates wednesday 

[etudiant]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

thats why I turn all electronics off during storms.  I've lost thousands of dollars of equipment because of thunderstorms.

Oh wow, that is really painful.  A good UPS might cost several hundred dollars, but would protect the expensive electronics.

 

[LibertyBell]

11 minutes ago, etudiant said:

 

Yes I have one of those now, but I still worry about damage and turn everything off regardless.  I have large voltage fluctuations here (I see that on the UPS's LCD panel) and sometimes have brownouts that last a fraction of a second which happen when the wind gusts or a storm comes in.  The UPS batteries are hard for me to replace so every few years I get a new one.  I'm on my fourth one now lol.

 

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

frost warnings in the Poconos!

Strongest 500 mb blocking over Greenland on record for the month of May.

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Strongest 500 mb blocking over Greenland on record for the month of May.

Would be nice if this could hold for next fall/winter. 

Also wow at the dramatic turnaround from record low heights. 

[Juliancolton]

The 00z Albany balloon was within a degree of minimum climo 850mb temp, and radiating conditions are close to ideal. 44/42 at the moment. If sunrise were an hour or two later, I'd have some serious frost concerns. As it stands, not difficult to envision getting down to 37-38 and putting the brakes on plant vigor for the next week.

[CIK62]

Next 8 days averaging 73degs., or about 3degs AN.

Finally reached 60* here at 8:30am.   Low was near 58*.      Ocean keeping me warmer now, uncharacteristically.   

Just an embarrassing 63* by Noon.

[ForestHillWx]

45/41 currently. 

[MJO812]

57 here

[IrishRob17]

7 hours ago, Juliancolton said:

The 00z Albany balloon was within a degree of minimum climo 850mb temp, and radiating conditions are close to ideal. 44/42 at the moment. If sunrise were an hour or two later, I'd have some serious frost concerns. As it stands, not difficult to envision getting down to 37-38 and putting the brakes on plant vigor for the next week.

Only 43 for me, too much moisture around me this time of year but I see KMGJ a couple miles away from here hit 39. 

[LAVistaNY]

37º in Westchester

 

[dmillz25]

55 here

[bluewave]

The 36 out at FOK is the coldest June temperature since 2014.

 

[doncat]

Overnight models  look quite wet next 10 days, just continuing the pattern  we've seen the past year and a half.

[dWave]

8 hours ago, Juliancolton said:

The 00z Albany balloon was within a degree of minimum climo 850mb temp, and radiating conditions are close to ideal. 44/42 at the moment. If sunrise were an hour or two later, I'd have some serious frost concerns. As it stands, not difficult to envision getting down to 37-38 and putting the brakes on plant vigor for the next week.

Shout out to the UHI for taking care of that problem..

[Cfa]

Bottomed out at 46, already pushing 60.

[Isotherm]

43. Pretty impressive for early June.

[psv88]

45 last night. Impressive 

[Byrdhousebv]

Bottomed out at 48. Currently T-61   DP-38, beautiful morning. 

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, dWave said:

Shout out to the UHI for taking care of that problem..

Yup a good 10 degrees colder just away from the metro. 47F for me, probably the coldest we'll see until September.

[NYCweatherNOW]

3 hours ago, doncat said:

Overnight models  look quite wet next 10 days, just continuing the pattern  we've seen the past year and a half.

I think the models correct themselves the next few days and starts drying out... 

[TriPol]

1 minute ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

I think the models correct themselves the next few days and starts drying out... 

Why? What evidence do you have to submit that shows that we're breaking out of a long-term weather pattern?

[bluewave]

18 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Would be nice if this could hold for next fall/winter. 

Also wow at the dramatic turnaround from record low heights. 

You can see this record blocking focused near Greenland reflected in the NAO. It’s been negative every day since the end of April with no changes in sight.

 

[purduewx80]

Not as confident on where the best precip chances set up after tomorrow night's deluge, but it looks increasingly likely we'll be backdoored from late Thursday through the weekend. Most guidance suggests we'll be drier and probably sunnier this round.

My guess is that if wet weather doesn't return Sunday, it will Monday...lingering into much of next week. That trough @bluewave posted above will produce stormy, southwest flow here as long as it's in the Great Lakes. Once the trough axis is as far east as the ECMWF above, wet weather would probably settle into the Southeast and southern Mid-Atlantic.

[forkyfork]

20 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

Not as confident on where the best precip chances set up after tomorrow night's deluge, but it looks increasingly likely we'll be backdoored from late Thursday through the weekend. Most guidance suggests we'll be drier and probably sunnier this round.

My guess is that if wet weather doesn't return Sunday, it will Monday...lingering into much of next week. That trough @bluewave posted above will produce stormy, southwest flow here as long as it's in the Great Lakes. Once the trough axis is as far east as the ECMWF above, wet weather would probably settle into the Southeast and southern Mid-Atlantic.

kind of surprised by this outlook 

[purduewx80]

Reference: tomorrow night's heavy rain threat - with the lapse rates pointed out by @forkyfork and 1.75 - 2" precipitable water available, this low-level jet will focus multiple rounds of convection in the region. 

[purduewx80]

4 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

kind of surprised by this outlook 

Yeah, don't see why marginal won't cover NYC and southern New England on subsequent updates. Flow is fairly weak in mid-levels and lapse rates aren't like they were w/ the SI hail event last week, but there is some impressive moisture/theta-e return and focus in the region. Could maybe see some brief spin-ups along with isolated wet microbursts, in addition to the tropical downpours.

[LibertyBell]

18 hours ago, Juliancolton said:

The 00z Albany balloon was within a degree of minimum climo 850mb temp, and radiating conditions are close to ideal. 44/42 at the moment. If sunrise were an hour or two later, I'd have some serious frost concerns. As it stands, not difficult to envision getting down to 37-38 and putting the brakes on plant vigor for the next week.

the new moon will help lower your temps even more ;-)

 

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

You can see this record blocking focused near Greenland reflected in the NAO. It’s been negative every day since the end of April with no changes in sight.

 

Chris, what are the reasons we didn't have this at any point during the winter but somehow as soon as spring comes along we got this NAO signal?  It seems to be a pattern that happens a lot - is a neg NAO more common in the spring than in the winter for some reason?

I love this weather- nice and dry and sunny.  I just dont like it when it rains every other day and you dont see the sun for a month.  My ideal weather would be sunny 6 days out of every week and rain on the seventh day.  Maybe one day when humankind can finally control the weather we'll be able to do that ourselves.  And get rid of all the horrible flooding that happens when systems stall and the same pattern keeps repeating like they are having in the middle of the country.

 

 

[LibertyBell]

10 hours ago, bluewave said:

The 36 out at FOK is the coldest June temperature since 2014.

 

Wow they must've had some frost out there!  They were colder than Monticello which only got down to 40!  Chris, what did KMPO (Mount Pocono) get down to for a low?