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June 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208
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1 hour ago, jfklganyc said:

Islandia area

05AE771F-FA26-4085-9DD9-302B3D063820.jpeg

6ADF6D4E-9F04-4429-9416-78475590F214.jpeg

Literally just came down this street, trees still there.

In my immediate area I mainly see downed branches, debris, and flooding, core of the storm did go right over this area as well.

Lol I missed what would’ve been my first legit severe thunderstorm, should’ve stayed home today.

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What a pleasant surprise:

CB23DD78-DC8E-4D41-A4B0-B82D3CC13A00.thumb.jpeg.f18f04992815a3f40d39d0561ac97924.jpeg

My weather radio has been dead silent for the last 2-3 years but it received an alert today, the alert is also stuck which is the only reason why I’m even able to see this.

I wonder if this is a sign that KWO35 is undergoing testing at its new location, I hope so.

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This is what can happen with a record breaking -NAO and 50/50 vortex in June. One of the most potent Long Island severe thunderstorm events associated with an upper low dropping south from New England. A new low pressure record for June was set with this persistent feature on the 23rd.

https://mobile.twitter.com/NWSWPC/status/1142932056101416960

A strengthening low pressure system that ushered in cooler conditions across the Northeast this weekend is bringing gales near Atlantic Canada per

. Gander, Newfoundland set a low pressure record for the month of June from this Low at 10 am AST Sun: 978.3 mb/28.89".

01DEEAC1-A39D-4832-AE61-96DF5F87CD65.thumb.png.33a1c56e575a38a349a7eadfb647b71c.png

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Just now, psv88 said:

there he is. storm raked western suffolk north to south. remarkable.

Yeah, nasty. Those storms that drop northwest to southeast like that always seem to pack the strongest punch. I’ve never seen hail like that on LI. Literally dumping hail. 

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1 minute ago, Parsley said:

Yeah, nasty. Those storms that drop northwest to southeast like that always seem to pack the strongest punch. I’ve never seen hail like that on LI. Literally dumping hail. 

yea hail was slamming against our windows too. Half of commack is still without power, and 60% of brentwood. This is one for the books. 

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2 minutes ago, Parsley said:

Yeah, nasty. Those storms that drop northwest to southeast like that always seem to pack the strongest punch. I’ve never seen hail like that on LI. Literally dumping hail. 

the storms actually almost dropped north to south, only a slight eastward component, especially as they strengthened right after coming ashore. i thought we would get grazed to the east but the storms almost made a right turn south

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Just now, psv88 said:

the storms actually almost dropped north to south, only a slight eastward component, especially as they strengthened right after coming ashore. i thought we would get grazed to the east but the storms almost made a right turn south

Damn. Crazy. Anyone have a loop of it rolling through? I missed it. Only saw the radar as it moved offshore. 

1EA53731-1DCB-452C-B032-3CBBC11CDC72.png

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3 hours ago, tdp146 said:

Up in Lloyd harbor this afternoon at a relatives. Lost power as that cell hit. Almost immediately. We were right on the edge of the worst too. 

I was in Massapequa park and all they got were a couple drops.  The gust front knocked down a lot of branches and power lines. I couldn't believe how windy it got.  

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1 hour ago, Rjay said:

I was in Massapequa park and all they got were a couple drops.  The gust front knocked down a lot of branches and power lines. I couldn't believe how windy it got.  

I got the gust front here in SW Suffolk also. Rapid increase in winds to around 50-55 mph with numerous broken branches.There was even a large tree uprooted nearby pulling down power lines. The brief downpour arrived after the winds subsided.

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More high temperature records were shattered in Europe earlier today.

Select high temperatures included: Breman, Germany: 95° (tied June record); Dijon, France: 99° (June record); Frankfurt: 102° (tied all-time record); Innsbruck: 99° (tied all-time record); Paderborn, Germany: 95° (June record); Pamplona, Spain: 104° (tied June record); Strasbourg, France: 102° (tied June record); and, Wiesbaden, Germany: 102° (All-time record).

In the region, New York City finished June with a monthly mean temperature of 71.6°. That was 0.2° above normal.

This afternoon, severe thunderstorms tracked southeastward from Connecticut across Long Island producing hail and damaging winds. Trees were toppled in parts of Long Island. More tranquil weather now lies ahead.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around June 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.02°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.77°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions could develop later this month and then continue into at least the first half of July.

The SOI was -9.49 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.547. Blocking will likely persist through at least the first week of July and likely beyond it.

Blocking is consistent with warmth on the East Coast during the middle and latter part of summer. Hence, should blocking generally persist, the prospects of a warm or perhaps very warm second half of summer could increase.

With respect to the current month, there were 13 cases where the AO averaged -0.75 or below during the first half of June. The mean temperature for the second half of June usually fell within 1° of normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region (73.6° is normal in New York City). The final figure for this timeframe was 74.7°. As suggested by the guidance and pattern, the closing week of June has experienced some of the warmest temperatures so far this summer.

In addition, since 1950, there was only a single year that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in May and -0.500 or below in June (as appears likely in 2019): 1993. 1993 featured much above normal readings in the East during the late summer (August 15-September 15 period) and predominantly cooler than normal readings across the western third of the nation during much of the summer.

On June 29, the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 0.981 (RMM). The June 28-adjusted amplitude was 1.034.

Since 1974 when MJO data was reported, years in which the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for at least two days, as was the case this year, were typically warmer than normal and drier than normal during the first 10 days of July.

Since 1994, there have been 6 cases where the SOI fell to -35.00 or below during the June 16-30 period as occurred on June 21-22. Following such SOI outcomes, the July 1-15 temperature averaged approximately 3.5° above the June 16-30 figure in New York City. Based on the modeled June 16-30 outcome, that would imply that the first half of July would be among the top third warmest first halves of the month on record. Based on the current guidance, the July 1-10 period is likely to have a mean temperature near 78.0°. That would be the 30th warmest first 10 days of July since records were kept back in 1869.

Overall, July looks to be warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions.

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5 hours ago, jconsor said:

Many of the most intense severe thunderstorms on LI approach from the N or NW.  Can't think of examples off the top of my head, but I'm sure others here can.

Yes, some examples I can think of are 06/26/2009 where there was like 2 inch diameter hail near Stony Brook and 06/24/2010 where Great Neck had a microburst and extensive tree damage and hail. 

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