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June 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208
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2 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

When you look up and see a widebody is on final approach to Islip, you know something bad is happening in the JFK area!

They are still looping up by me for final approach before landing, trying to get them in before storms put a hold on them.  

 

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2 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

Hold in effect. No more landings. 

 

76BCD1A5-A7D5-40BC-A1A1-3DB1D1D89A5F.thumb.jpeg.d7a552ef19bbb650971b4dcb4cf46c74.jpeg

Seeing the planes circling here too. Looks like north shore Suffolk is the big loser today. Congrats everyone else. Just put the sprinklers on lol

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Not often southern Nassau and Suffolk cash in on storms when the north shore is mainly dry. Southwest Suffolk been slammed twice today. Not even a sprinkle up here. I do hear thunder in the distance though, as I have all day

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9 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Not often southern Nassau and Suffolk cash in on storms when the north shore is mainly dry. Southwest Suffolk been slammed twice today. Not even a sprinkle up here. I do hear thunder in the distance though, as I have all day

It seems to go in streaks. Numerous wind and hail reports along the South Shore since May. Other times the convection focuses near the North Shore. 

 

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1 minute ago, bluewave said:

It seems to go in streaks. Numerous wind and hail reports along the South Shore since May. Other times the convection focuses near the North Shore. 

 

Definitely in streaks. It’s incredible that storms hit the exact same areas twice, weather is crazy 

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The historic heat wave that has been affecting western Europe centered on France and Spain abated somewhat today. Nevertheless, daily and, in some cases, monthly records were still matched or broken.

Select high temperatures included: Aurillac, France: 99° (Tied June record); La Heve, France: 97° (Tied all-time record); Le Mans, France: 102° (June record); Logrono, Spain: 108° (June record); Pamplona, Spain: 104° (June record); Pirineos, Spain: 104° (June record); Poitiers, France: 100° (Tied June record); Torrejon, Spain: 106° (June record); Toulouse, France: 104° (Tied June record); Tours, France: 102° (June record); and, Zaragoza, Spain: 109° (June record).

Ahead of the cold front that brought strong and severe thunderstorms to parts of the Middle Atlantic region from Staten Island southward, high temperatures included: Baltimore: 97°; New York City: 91°; Newark: 93°; Philadelphia: 94°; Richmond: 96°; Washington, DC: 96°; and, Wilmington, DE: 93°.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around June 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.02°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.77°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions could develop later this month and then continue into at least the first half of July.

The SOI was -25.87 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.946. Blocking will likely persist through at least the first week of July and likely beyond it.

Blocking is consistent with warmth on the East Coast during the middle and latter part of summer. Hence, should blocking generally persist, the prospects of a warm or perhaps very warm second half of summer could increase.

With respect to the current month, there were 13 cases where the AO averaged -0.75 or below during the first half of June. The mean temperature for the second half of June usually fell within 1° of normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region (73.6° is normal in New York City). According to the latest guidance, the June 16-30 temperature could finish near 74.6°. As suggested by the guidance and pattern, the closing week of June has experienced some of the warmest temperatures so far this summer.

In addition, since 1950, there was only a single year that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in May and -0.500 or below in June (as appears likely in 2019): 1993. 1993 featured much above normal readings in the East during the late summer (August 15-September 15 period) and predominantly cooler than normal readings across the western third of the nation during much of the summer.

On June 28, the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.036 (RMM). The June 27-adjusted amplitude was 1.164.

Since 1974 when MJO data was reported, years in which the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for at least two days, as was the case this year, were typically warmer than normal and drier than normal during the first 10 days of July.

Since 1994, there have been 6 cases where the SOI fell to -35.00 or below during the June 16-30 period as occurred on June 21-22. Following such SOI outcomes, the July 1-15 temperature averaged approximately 3.5° above the June 16-30 figure in New York City. Based on the modeled June 16-30 outcome, that would imply that the first half of July would be among the top third warmest first halves of the month on record. In addition, 4/6 (67%) of those cases were followed by an El Niño winter (one was followed by a La Niña winter and one was followed by a neutral ENSO winter).

The implied probability of a warmer than normal June in and around New York City is currently 76%. The most likely monthly mean temperature figure is 71.6° (71.5° to 71.7°). New York City also remains on track for 50" or more precipitation this year. With today's 0.08" figure, there is an implied 70% probability of such an outcome this year.

Overall, July looks to be warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions.

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3 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

Another shot of the storms passing to the S from Woodbury. 

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Montauk getting clobbered now. One of those frustrating days. When the east end gets nailed and I get nothing I consider that a real kick in the nuts. Couldn’t buy a drop today, storms all around.

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