Stormlover74 Posted June 23, 2019 Share Posted June 23, 2019 18 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: I disagree I think this summer ends up hot and dry. It’s been wet and cool. That's what I meant. The nice weather won't last. Despite the rain, the days that have been nice have been stellar 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted June 23, 2019 Share Posted June 23, 2019 This weekend makes me really want to move to San Diego. It is epically spectacular outside. Having the windows open all weekend with a strong breeze has been just amazing. Humidity returns soon, but this has been nice. Now if only the pool water would warm up quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted June 23, 2019 Share Posted June 23, 2019 Nice fight right now near jones beach with the sea breeze. In last few minutes we had wind go 180 for a few minutes then back to 310 now back to 230-250 or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted June 23, 2019 Share Posted June 23, 2019 1 hour ago, NYCweatherNOW said: I disagree I think this summer ends up hot and dry. It’s been wet and cool. As long as it's not humid, then it's fine. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 23, 2019 Share Posted June 23, 2019 3 hours ago, SACRUS said: This June should finish equal or warmer overall (departures) than 2012 - 2018 despite the wetness and lack of heat. EWR: -0.7 (thru 6/22) so far EWR Jun Departures 2018: -0.3 2017: +0.3 2016: +0.3 2015: -0.4 2014: +0.4 2013: +0.9 2012: +0.1 2011: +2.0 2010: +3.8 The chart I posted is for the entire CONUS, not NYC metro specifically. Warm minimums make it difficult to get cool monthly departures here during the warm season. We would b at -2.0 right now if the minimums kept pace with the maximums. June so far NYC Max...-2.0....Min....-0.2....avg....-1.1 LGA Max...-2.2....Min....+0.5....avg....-0.9 EWR Max...-2.0....Min.....+0.4....avg....-0.8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted June 23, 2019 Share Posted June 23, 2019 Nice recovery here from 58° am low to 84°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 23, 2019 Author Share Posted June 23, 2019 Pretty warm day out there. Current temp 86/DP 54/RH 32% 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted June 23, 2019 Share Posted June 23, 2019 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Historic June heatwave this week for portions of Europe. First 597 DM heat dome for this time of year centered near France.Our most extreme ridge in recent years was during February 2018 when Newark hit 80. Followed up by the record summer WAR into New England and Canadian Maritimes. Seems core of heat is stationary for at least 10 days, near 45N 0W/E, or 200 or so miles southeast of Paris. Lower 850's move in from east toward end of period, but do not reach main heat dome. This will probably have some upstream consequence for EC, I think, one way or another. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jun/23/paris-prepares-pools-parks-and-cool-rooms-for-predicted-heatwave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted June 23, 2019 Share Posted June 23, 2019 Looks like 85 will do it. Low was 60. Currently sitting in the shade with a nice breeze and low humidity, it feels euphoric. My tropical plants are really coming to life now. They’d prefer our typically higher humidity, but imo it can wait until July-Sept. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted June 23, 2019 Share Posted June 23, 2019 I remember the last week of school and the first days of summer vacation being hot in the 1960's...After a cool June max of 89 in 1960 the next nine years had some of the hottest temperatures of the year...the average June max for the 1960's was 95.5...highest for any June decade...94.2 in the 1950's was second... 1961 had a 96 degree day on 6/13 and 93 on 6/30... 1962 had a four day heat wave from the 16th-19th...max of 93... 1963 had a five day heat wave from the 25th-29th...max of 96...98 on 7/1...hottest of the year... 1964 had a max of 94 on 6/27...99 on 6/30 and 7/1...hottest of the year... 1965 had its hottest temp of the year on 6/28...95 degrees... 1966 saw 94 degrees on 6/23...101 on 6/27...94 on 6/30... 1967 saw the hottest temp of the year when it hit 96 on 6/16...90 on 6/25... 1968 had a 94 degree day on 6/30...97 on 7/1... 1969 had a 96 degree day on 6/28... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 24, 2019 Share Posted June 24, 2019 6 hours ago, bluewave said: The chart I posted is for the entire CONUS, not NYC metro specifically. Warm minimums make it difficult to get cool monthly departures here during the warm season. We would b at -2.0 right now if the minimums kept pace with the maximums. June so far NYC Max...-2.0....Min....-0.2....avg....-1.1 LGA Max...-2.2....Min....+0.5....avg....-0.9 EWR Max...-2.0....Min.....+0.4....avg....-0.8 Saw that , just pointing out similar June departures last 5 years. This year may wind up being warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 24, 2019 Share Posted June 24, 2019 Glorious day 6/23 Highs EWR: 87 LGA: 86 TEB: 86 JFK: 85 New Brunswick: 85 ACY: 85 BLM: 84 PHL: 84 ISP: 84 TTN: 83 NYC: 83 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 24, 2019 Author Share Posted June 24, 2019 Pretty typical summertime weather coming up for the next several days. A couple of chances of showers/storms with temps ranging anywhere from the low to uppers 80's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted June 24, 2019 Share Posted June 24, 2019 The pattern is undergoing a transition that could lead to some of the young summer's warmest readings to date from the middle of this week onward across parts of the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.7°C for the week centered around June 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.77°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño appear likely to persist through at least late June in Region 3.4. The SOI was -18.63 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.434. Blocking is consistent with warmth on the East Coast during the middle and latter part of summer. Hence, should blocking generally persist, the prospects of a warm or perhaps very warm second half of summer could increase. With respect to the current month, there were 13 cases where the AO averaged -0.75 or below during the first half of June. The mean temperature for the second half of June usually fell within 1° of normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region (73.6° is normal in New York City). According to the latest guidance, the June 16-30 temperature could finish near 74.0°. During the closing week of June, parts of the Northeast could see their warmest temperatures so far this summer. In addition, since 1950, there was only a single year that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in May and -0.500 or below in June (as appears likely in 2019): 1993. 1993 featured much above normal readings in the East during the late summer (August 15-September 15 period) and predominantly cooler than normal readings across the western third of the nation during much of the summer. On June 22, the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 0.852 (RMM). The June 21-adjusted amplitude was 0.638. Since 1974 when MJO data was reported, years in which the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for at least two days, as was the case this year, were typically warmer than normal and drier than normal during the first 10 days of July. 1975 and 1985 were somewhat cooler than normal and very wet during the July 1-10 period. Some of the extended guidance is continuing to suggest a warmer and drier outcome with the warmest anomalies likely during the second half of that period. However, the most recent run of the EPS weeklies suggests a cooler first 10 days of July. For now, the base case remains a warmer outcome overall. The base case is supported by the recent steep decline in the SOI. The SOI's sharp and dramatic decline may well mark the start of a larger process that will kick start downstream changes that will lead to a period of above to perhaps much above normal warmth in the first half of July, some relaxation in the warmth afterward, and then a very warm second half of summer (perhaps along the lines of the evolution of 1993 in August into September). Since 1994, there have been 6 cases where the SOI fell to -35.00 or below during the June 16-30 period as occurred on June 21-22. Following such SOI outcomes, the July 1-15 temperature averaged approximately 3.5° above the June 16-30 figure in New York City. Based on the modeled June 16-30 outcome, that would imply that the first half of July would be among the top third warmest first halves of the month on record. In addition, 4/6 (67%) of those cases were followed by an El Niño winter (one was followed by a La Niña winter and one was followed by a neutral ENSO winter). The implied probability of a warmer than normal June in and around New York City is currently near 50%. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted June 24, 2019 Share Posted June 24, 2019 The last 7 days of June are averaging 78degs., or 4degs. AN. Month to date is -1.0[69.5]. June should end near +0.3[71.6]. 69.2* here at 6am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted June 24, 2019 Share Posted June 24, 2019 16 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said: Nice fight right now near jones beach with the sea breeze. In last few minutes we had wind go 180 for a few minutes then back to 310 now back to 230-250 or so ...yeah..noticed that too..out here in west hampton dunes, sea breeze kicked in around 3pm..was kinda surprised as the NNW wind stayed busy all day..in fact the NWS discussion on sunday morning made me chuckle.."the weather question of the day is IF the sea breeze will develop in the afternoon".. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 24, 2019 Share Posted June 24, 2019 12 hours ago, SACRUS said: Saw that , just pointing out similar June departures last 5 years. This year may wind up being warmer. The typical 2010’s June has finished with a small + departure. The last time we saw a +2 to +4 was way back in 2010 and 2011. 2018...EWR...-0.3...NYC...+0.3...LGA...+0.7 2017...EWR..+0.3...NYC..+0.6....LGA...+1.4 2016...EWR...+0.5..NYC..+0.9....LGA...+1.4 2015...EWR...-0.4...NYC...-0.2....LGA...-0.9 2014...EWR...+0.4..NYC...+1.1....LGA...+0.3 2013...EWR...+0.9..NYC..+1.3....LGA....+1.8 2012...EWR.....0.0..NYC...-0.4....LGA...+0.7 2011...EWR...+2.1..NYC...+0.9....LGA...+0.5 2010..EWR...+3.8...NYC...+3.3....LGA...+3.8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted June 24, 2019 Share Posted June 24, 2019 Already 82 here, 5 degrees ahead of yesterday at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted June 24, 2019 Share Posted June 24, 2019 4 minutes ago, Cfa said: Already 82 here, 5 degrees ahead of yesterday at this time. 83 here, baking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 24, 2019 Share Posted June 24, 2019 Tuesday/Wednesday will be mid-upper 80s for most locations away from the immediate coast, and Thurs-Saturday has a shot at the first heat wave for much of NJ [inland]. The pattern overall should be warmer than normal prospectively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted June 24, 2019 Share Posted June 24, 2019 1 hour ago, psv88 said: 83 here, baking. I’m thinking some of the typical hot spots might sneak in a 90 today. 88 in NW Nassau. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted June 24, 2019 Share Posted June 24, 2019 37 minutes ago, Isotherm said: Tuesday/Wednesday will be mid-upper 80s for most locations away from the immediate coast, and Thurs-Saturday has a shot at the first heat wave for much of NJ [inland]. The pattern overall should be warmer than normal prospectively. And most importantly we're finally going into a dry pattern. Much needed after the weeks and weeks of constant rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted June 24, 2019 Share Posted June 24, 2019 21 minutes ago, Cfa said: I’m thinking some of the typical hot spots might sneak in a 90 today. 88 in NW Nassau. Looks like 88-89 in Melville. Scorcher out there today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted June 24, 2019 Share Posted June 24, 2019 33 minutes ago, Cfa said: I’m thinking some of the typical hot spots might sneak in a 90 today. 88 in NW Nassau. Clouds may stop a 90 degree temp. I'm starting to cloud up out here and went from 83 to 81 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted June 24, 2019 Share Posted June 24, 2019 Up to 85 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted June 24, 2019 Share Posted June 24, 2019 And most importantly we're finally going into a dry pattern. Much needed after the weeks and weeks of constant rain.I wouldnt say a dry pattern just less rain than we've had. There's a few rainy days over the next 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted June 24, 2019 Share Posted June 24, 2019 1 hour ago, NycStormChaser said: 1 hour ago, winterwx21 said: And most importantly we're finally going into a dry pattern. Much needed after the weeks and weeks of constant rain. I wouldnt say a dry pattern just less rain than we've had. There's a few rainy days over the next 10. I don't see any rainy days. Just a few days with isolated t-storms. Overall a dry pattern the next 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted June 24, 2019 Share Posted June 24, 2019 2 hours ago, Cfa said: I’m thinking some of the typical hot spots might sneak in a 90 today. 88 in NW Nassau. 86 did it, down to 83 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted June 24, 2019 Share Posted June 24, 2019 2 hours ago, jm1220 said: Looks like 88-89 in Melville. Scorcher out there today. Yup, car thermometer hit 90 briefly at the Queens/Nassau border. Slightly cooler now. 1 hour ago, frankdp23 said: Clouds may stop a 90 degree temp. I'm starting to cloud up out here and went from 83 to 81 now. Yeah, if it weren’t for the clouds much of the area would be flirting with 90 today. 13 minutes ago, psv88 said: 86 did it, down to 83 85 here, down to 83. June hasn’t been able to outdo May’s 87 yet, hopefully this week it will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 24, 2019 Share Posted June 24, 2019 well that changed in a hurry .WEDNESDAY...Sunny. Highs in the lower 90s. Northwest winds around 5 mph, becoming west in the afternoon. .THURSDAY...Sunny. Highs in the lower 90s. .FRIDAY...Sunny. Highs in the mid 90s. .SATURDAY...Partly sunny. A chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs in the lower 90s. Chance of rain 30 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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