doncat Posted June 19, 2019 Share Posted June 19, 2019 Still just 67° here and overcast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 19, 2019 Share Posted June 19, 2019 Classic backdoor day on Long Island with overcast skies, east winds, and upper 60’s at 2pm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 19, 2019 Author Share Posted June 19, 2019 Temps/dew point slightly lower then yesterday here, looks like some heavy rain/storms developing to our southwest heading in this direction. I think today will be more of a heavy rain threat versus any stronger storms, I will hold off on making any comments on the severe potential tomorrow until early in the morning. Current temp 69/DP 66/RH 86% **Currently getting a moderate/heavy rain shower here.** 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted June 19, 2019 Share Posted June 19, 2019 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Classic backdoor day on Long Island with overcast skies, east winds, and upper 60’s at 2pm. Loosing prime insulation days. Less energy is being imparted into the ocean. Could have a slight effect on potential tropical activity down the road. At the very least it’s making swimming in the ocean less appealing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted June 19, 2019 Share Posted June 19, 2019 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Classic backdoor day on Long Island with overcast skies, east winds, and upper 60’s at 2pm. Same here...68 was all we could do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 19, 2019 Author Share Posted June 19, 2019 4 minutes ago, doncat said: Same here...68 was all we could do. Yeah I am right across from you on the NJ side and same goes here as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted June 19, 2019 Share Posted June 19, 2019 While not fully in range yet, the extended 18z hrrr paints a pretty severe picture tomorrow for much of our area. NAM is rolling out now. Edit: NAM not as robust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 19, 2019 Share Posted June 19, 2019 28 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Loosing prime insulation days. Less energy is being imparted into the ocean. Could have a slight effect on potential tropical activity down the road. At the very least it’s making swimming in the ocean less appealing just an awful spring-constant overcast and cool temps... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted June 19, 2019 Share Posted June 19, 2019 10 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: just an awful spring-constant overcast and cool temps... It is pretty amazing. Nearly everyone has been mentioning it too now. To me it, as I am looking for a career change, it is just one less reason to keep this area high on the list of places I want to remain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted June 19, 2019 Share Posted June 19, 2019 28 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: just an awful spring-constant overcast and cool temps... Truth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted June 19, 2019 Share Posted June 19, 2019 Ooh but that sure does look like an arrow pointing at LI/RI that shows right where tropical storms and hurricanes would be directed doesn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 19, 2019 Author Share Posted June 19, 2019 Looks like once again the heavy rain/storm hot spot is the area between Philly and Trenton. Not much going on south or north of that area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 19, 2019 Share Posted June 19, 2019 meso models are all showing low-mid 70's dewpoints tomorrow. that's often the threshold for higher end events here 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted June 19, 2019 Share Posted June 19, 2019 35 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: Looks like once again the heavy rain/storm hot spot is the area between Philly and Trenton. Not much going on south or north of that area. Ocean county NJ for the win again. That’s been one hell of a good thunderstorm spot this spring! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted June 19, 2019 Share Posted June 19, 2019 Nice dry air mass coming in Fri and the weekend. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted June 19, 2019 Share Posted June 19, 2019 Misery mist on the uws right now.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted June 19, 2019 Share Posted June 19, 2019 54 minutes ago, doncat said: Nice dry air mass coming in Fri and the weekend. I just want Sunday to be nice. I'm only asking for one day. ONE DAY. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted June 19, 2019 Share Posted June 19, 2019 Interesting discussion from Mt Holly about tomorrow..SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... For the 630 PM update, made some adjustments to the PoPs with the increase delayed some eastward. Also added in a mention of heavy rain and gusty winds for the afternoon given the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms. Another day, more convection. Seems to be the theme of the week around the Mid-Atlantic but thankfully this looks to be the last day of unsettled weather as we head towards the end of the week. A low pressure system will track through the Ohio Valley and into the mid-Atlantic along the stalled boundary. Good surface heating is expected to take place on Thursday and will help with convective initiation as the majority of the forecast area looks to remain in the warm sector. SPC has placed the majority of our forecast area into a slight risk for severe weather. There is decent shear (improved in the lower levels than is present Wednesday) and CAPE >1000 J/kg present and convection should have no problem developing ahead of the approaching cold front, although there may be more forward storm motion present than there is Wednesday. Damaging winds looks to be the main threat at this time but there is some indication we could see supercells develop in which case we can`t rule out the possibility of rotating cells. May need to watch the track of the weak surface low as the surface winds back back to the southeast ahead of it resulting in enhanced low- level shear. With PWATs remaining around 2 inches, we will continue to have a heavy rain threat and though the coverage may not be as widespread, several areas have had a fair amount of rain this week. Another Flash Flood Watch may be needed for the day Thursday, although given storm motions should be faster and some uncertainty where the heaviest rain will fall we held off for now. Temperatures will rise into the 80s through much of the area and even into the lower 90s across southern Delaware and nearby areas of eastern Maryland. The limiting factor, especially across our northern areas, will be the cloud cover as the day starts off with fog/low clouds across the region and just how fast they clear will play a role in just how fast temperatures can rise through the day.https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 20, 2019 Author Share Posted June 20, 2019 53 minutes ago, NycStormChaser said: Interesting discussion from Mt Holly about tomorrow. .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... For the 630 PM update, made some adjustments to the PoPs with the increase delayed some eastward. Also added in a mention of heavy rain and gusty winds for the afternoon given the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms. Another day, more convection. Seems to be the theme of the week around the Mid-Atlantic but thankfully this looks to be the last day of unsettled weather as we head towards the end of the week. A low pressure system will track through the Ohio Valley and into the mid-Atlantic along the stalled boundary. Good surface heating is expected to take place on Thursday and will help with convective initiation as the majority of the forecast area looks to remain in the warm sector. SPC has placed the majority of our forecast area into a slight risk for severe weather. There is decent shear (improved in the lower levels than is present Wednesday) and CAPE >1000 J/kg present and convection should have no problem developing ahead of the approaching cold front, although there may be more forward storm motion present than there is Wednesday. Damaging winds looks to be the main threat at this time but there is some indication we could see supercells develop in which case we can`t rule out the possibility of rotating cells. May need to watch the track of the weak surface low as the surface winds back back to the southeast ahead of it resulting in enhanced low- level shear. With PWATs remaining around 2 inches, we will continue to have a heavy rain threat and though the coverage may not be as widespread, several areas have had a fair amount of rain this week. Another Flash Flood Watch may be needed for the day Thursday, although given storm motions should be faster and some uncertainty where the heaviest rain will fall we held off for now. Temperatures will rise into the 80s through much of the area and even into the lower 90s across southern Delaware and nearby areas of eastern Maryland. The limiting factor, especially across our northern areas, will be the cloud cover as the day starts off with fog/low clouds across the region and just how fast they clear will play a role in just how fast temperatures can rise through the day. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off The clearing out in the morning will be the key to the severe threat for northern areas and the NYC metro. The earlier it happens the better so if it doesn't happen by 11 am at the latest we are cooked IMO. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 20, 2019 Author Share Posted June 20, 2019 Burlington and Ocean Co's have been getting hammered with heavy rain over the last couple of hours, Seeing reports of multiple roads closed due to flooding and houses flooded as well in Burlington Co. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted June 20, 2019 Share Posted June 20, 2019 4 hours ago, Brian5671 said: just an awful spring-constant overcast and cool temps... It seems to never end. Days and days of clouds and rain. Only 60's today and it's June 19th. Ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted June 20, 2019 Share Posted June 20, 2019 Tomorrow, a cold front will press eastward, The potential exists for a line of strong to severe thunderstorms to impact the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. Parts of the region will likely see heavier rain than had occurred in today's more limited rounds of showers and thundershowers. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.7°C for the week centered around June 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.77°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño appear likely to persist through at least late June in Region 3.4. The SOI was -11.88 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.864. In coming days, the ensembles suggest that blocking could redevelop. However, that round of blocking may not reach the previous round in terms of magnitude. Blocking is consistent with warmth on the East Coast during the middle and latter part of summer. Hence, should blocking generally persist, the prospects of a warm or perhaps very warm second half of summer could increase. With respect to the current month, there were 13 cases where the AO averaged -0.75 or below during the first half of June. The mean temperature for the second half of June usually fell within 1° of normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region (73.6° is normal in New York City). According to the latest guidance, the June 16-30 temperature could finish near 74.6°. In addition, since 1950, there was only a single year that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in May and -0.500 or below in June (as appears likely in 2019): 1993. 1993 featured much above normal readings in the East during the late summer (August 15-September 15 period) and predominantly cooler than normal readings across the western third of the nation during much of the summer. On June 18, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.043 (RMM). The June 17-adjusted amplitude was 1.506. Since 1974 when MJO data was reported, years in which the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for at least two days, as was the case this year, were typically warmer than normal and drier than normal during the first 10 days of July. 1975 and 1985 were somewhat cooler than normal and very wet during the July 1-10 period. Some the extended guidance is suggesting just such an outcome. The implied probability of a warmer than normal June in and around New York City is currently 53%. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted June 20, 2019 Share Posted June 20, 2019 Made it up to 71 here, only 0.03” of precip. Mid 70’s in CT though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted June 20, 2019 Share Posted June 20, 2019 12 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: The clearing out in the morning will be the key to the severe threat for northern areas and the NYC metro. The earlier it happens the better so if it doesn't happen by 11 am at the latest we are cooked IMO. Agree with your thoughts. We would defiantly increase our severe chances if we clear out early.The HRRR maps a few posts back from NycStormChaser are showing a non-linear descrete Storm cell look. Well definitely have to keep a close eye on things tomorrow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 20, 2019 Author Share Posted June 20, 2019 5 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said: Agree with your thoughts. We would defiantly increase our severe chances if we clear out early.The HRRR maps a few posts back from NycStormChaser are showing a non-linear descrete Storm cell look. Well definitely have to keep a close eye on things tomorrow. Also keep an eye on the dew point as well, if they start rising into the low-mid 70's overnight and in the morning then we could be in business. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted June 20, 2019 Share Posted June 20, 2019 GEFS continues the theme of diminishing the longevity and strength of the Southwest Ridge between 06/26-06/29. It even hints at a backdoor trough trying to form over the Northeast as we approach July 4th. If this trend continues, I think it is more likely than not that Central Park ends up with a below-normal June. If this happens, then it would be the only below-normal May-June couplet in many years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted June 20, 2019 Share Posted June 20, 2019 Just a 2° diurnal range today... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 20, 2019 Author Share Posted June 20, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 20, 2019 Author Share Posted June 20, 2019 It looks like the area of rain/storms to our southwest is trying to move into the NYC metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted June 20, 2019 Share Posted June 20, 2019 ILS 13 approach into LGA tonight. Tells you how soupy it is out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now