bluewave Posted June 18, 2019 Share Posted June 18, 2019 40 minutes ago, frd said: You often read about the role of soil moisture and seasonal temps, more so in the fall and in the spring. I believe DT talks about this aspect a lot. I believe though it is many times used but may not really be a sound forecast tool. Either the area of excessive rainfall is rather small , or the anomaly is not that great and because of that it can easily be reversed by the high sun angle, longer days and high temps of late spring and early summer. Here though, in your post, it really shows this time it can not be so easily overlooked. The map is pretty impressive, not only in regards to record soil moisture, but also the vast area covered. of interest is this : Yeah, this area is so extensive that it’s able to have more of an impact. But it’s also an indication of the continuing record wet pattern. Brian B had an interesting thread on seasonal temperature trends across the US. While this year is a reflection of the extreme rains and stuck weather patterns, long term there has been muted high summer temperatures there. Maybe a combination of weather patterns and long term land use changes and irrigation. https://mobile.twitter.com/Climatologist49/status/1140048246477168640 100-year trend (change) in summer high (left) and low (right) temperatures based on NCEI county-level climate data. Notice anything different? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted June 18, 2019 Share Posted June 18, 2019 16 minutes ago, bluewave said: Maybe a combination of weather patterns and long term land use changes and irrigation. Thanks, and yes that all makes sense. Higher temps at night, looking at the East Coast possibly. Irrigation makes sense too over the past 100 years. As you know, the article mentioned this is only summer, and the other seasons are very different. ( when comparing ) seems the oceans are at play here too , the Atlantic warming and at times the +PDO, when looking at the Fall and the winter comparisons As for the rain and crazy flow this spring speculation on the low solar min as some NASA folks have looked at it and feel there may be a relationship in jet activity and weather flow from the coming solar min. Glancing a couple days ago at your chart of the NW cold pool SSTs and looking back in time I felt there was a relationship with the cold pool and the solar min . Not scientific at all just a quick glance. The recent record was pretty obvious on that chart. And, I believe we are not at the min yet. 2020 I think ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 18, 2019 Share Posted June 18, 2019 30 minutes ago, RU848789 said: Last several runs of the HRRR showing a lull in precip/storms from about 9 am until 2 pm, which would be perfect for our BBQ; crossing fingers... That batch in PA seems like it's going to stay north of 78 but there are some individual cells to watch out for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 18, 2019 Share Posted June 18, 2019 easily a widespread 1-3" of rain today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 18, 2019 Share Posted June 18, 2019 28 minutes ago, frd said: Thanks, and yes that all makes sense. Higher temps at night, looking at the East Coast possibly. Irrigation makes sense too over the past 100 years. As you know, the article mentioned this is only summer, and the other seasons are very different. ( when comparing ) seems the oceans are at play here too , the Atlantic warming and at times the +PDO, when looking at the Fall and the winter comparisons As for the rain and crazy flow this spring speculation on the low solar min as some NASA folks have looked at it and feel there may be a relationship in jet activity and weather flow from the coming solar min. Glancing a couple days ago at your chart of the NW cold pool SSTs and looking back in time I felt there was a relationship with the cold pool and the solar min . Not scientific at all just a quick glance. The recent record was pretty obvious on that chart. And, I believe we are not at the min yet. 2020 I think ? Yeah, warming SST’s are a big piece of the puzzle. Along with more moisture and clouds keeping up the minimums. But solar links to particular weather patterns can be difficult to establish. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-018-0293-3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted June 18, 2019 Share Posted June 18, 2019 13 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, warming SST’s are a big piece of the puzzle. Along with more moisture and clouds keeping up the minimums. But solar links to particular weather patterns can be difficult to establish. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-018-0293-3 Without question the ability to predict the -NAO accurately in advance is not possible. No one can I believe at this time claim to be able to. If a person states he or she can without being open and sharing how and what tool they use I just file under BS. Many pros have in the past stated using various secret formulas, solar, tripole, temps in a box over the ocean, the cold pool, cycles, ice melt, analogs etc. , etc., but to this day I have never seen a person be able to forecast the NAO more than 3 to 7 days in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted June 18, 2019 Share Posted June 18, 2019 34 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: That batch in PA seems like it's going to stay north of 78 but there are some individual cells to watch out for If purely judging by existing radar returns, we look to remain dry for the next few hours; unfortunately, convection has to start somewhere and can't rule out cells that pop up over us in that timeframe. Still, looks better than it did last night... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted June 18, 2019 Share Posted June 18, 2019 12 minutes ago, RU848789 said: If purely judging by existing radar returns, we look to remain dry for the next few hours; unfortunately, convection has to start somewhere and can't rule out cells that pop up over us in that timeframe. Still, looks better than it did last night... 0.36 in the Davis so far today up this way. Nice AFD from Upton, a section below; Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1010 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2019 .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Warm front in close proximity to the NYC metro and this will be key this afternoon as a frontal wave approaches from the west. The 06Z NAM NEST and latest HRRR continue to keep showers across the area for much of the day with the potential for strong/severe convection around the NYC/NJ metro in the 18Z to 22Z timeframe. Conditions are favorable at the very least for some heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding (see below). Weak low pressure over central PA rides along the stationary front located near the NYC metro, and passes over the area this afternoon into this evening. Synoptic scale setup supports moderate to heavy rain, with H8 frontogenesis and weak elevated instability in the cool sector north of the front across the interior especially from the lower Hudson Valley into SW CT, an upper level jet streak over southern CT possibly enhancing lift, also via sfc-based instability in the warm sector or very close to NE NJ and the NYC metro area. With WSW mid level flow 35-40 kt a few storms from NYC metro south/west could produce strong to locally severe wind gusts, as well as produce locally heavy rain as PW increases to near 2 inches. Some CAM`s and also the ECMWF are forecasting bands of heavy rain to the tune of 2-4 inches across the interior. Previous waves of low pressure have not lived up to model QPF expectations, so think this is overdone and have played the forecast more conservatively than otherwise might be the case for the time being. Given the more favorable larger scale factors coming into play this afternoon, this situation might be different, and it is still possible that a short fused flash flood watch may become necessary for parts of the area for this afternoon/evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted June 18, 2019 Share Posted June 18, 2019 10 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said: 0.36 in the Davis so far today up this way. Nice AFD from Upton, a section below; Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1010 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2019 .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Warm front in close proximity to the NYC metro and this will be key this afternoon as a frontal wave approaches from the west. The 06Z NAM NEST and latest HRRR continue to keep showers across the area for much of the day with the potential for strong/severe convection around the NYC/NJ metro in the 18Z to 22Z timeframe. Conditions are favorable at the very least for some heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding (see below). Weak low pressure over central PA rides along the stationary front located near the NYC metro, and passes over the area this afternoon into this evening. Synoptic scale setup supports moderate to heavy rain, with H8 frontogenesis and weak elevated instability in the cool sector north of the front across the interior especially from the lower Hudson Valley into SW CT, an upper level jet streak over southern CT possibly enhancing lift, also via sfc-based instability in the warm sector or very close to NE NJ and the NYC metro area. With WSW mid level flow 35-40 kt a few storms from NYC metro south/west could produce strong to locally severe wind gusts, as well as produce locally heavy rain as PW increases to near 2 inches. Some CAM`s and also the ECMWF are forecasting bands of heavy rain to the tune of 2-4 inches across the interior. Previous waves of low pressure have not lived up to model QPF expectations, so think this is overdone and have played the forecast more conservatively than otherwise might be the case for the time being. Given the more favorable larger scale factors coming into play this afternoon, this situation might be different, and it is still possible that a short fused flash flood watch may become necessary for parts of the area for this afternoon/evening. Yep, just saw the new first paragraph; latest 3 km NAM and HRRR keep the Rahway area dry through 2-3 pm, which is what we need; of course the 12 km NAM has showers for us in that time, as do the globals. Going to be a close call... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 18, 2019 Share Posted June 18, 2019 24 minutes ago, RU848789 said: Yep, just saw the new first paragraph; latest 3 km NAM and HRRR keep the Rahway area dry through 2-3 pm, which is what we need; of course the 12 km NAM has showers for us in that time, as do the globals. Going to be a close call... Storms seem to be lining up now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted June 18, 2019 Share Posted June 18, 2019 7 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Storms seem to be lining up now Looks as if the storm hitting Allentown will be here by around 1pm. Then perhaps a break for a few hours before another round later in the afternoon. 12z RGEM shows the 2 rounds hitting us, one early afternoon and another late afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 18, 2019 Share Posted June 18, 2019 Sun poking through. Super muggy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 18, 2019 Share Posted June 18, 2019 For the LI crew, heavy downpour moving along the South Shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted June 18, 2019 Share Posted June 18, 2019 Make it stop for the love of god my veggies are drowning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted June 18, 2019 Share Posted June 18, 2019 I'm between storms and like it that way...0.13" so far... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted June 18, 2019 Share Posted June 18, 2019 June really hasn't been particularly wet here, 1.58” so far so I’m probably slightly behind on precipitation. Driest first half of a month since January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 18, 2019 Share Posted June 18, 2019 GFS is advertising a wet week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 18, 2019 Share Posted June 18, 2019 1-2” per hour maximum radar rainfall estimates showing up with those training cells moving east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 18, 2019 Share Posted June 18, 2019 Hopefully that stays away from my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 18, 2019 Share Posted June 18, 2019 over an inch so far in springfield Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 18, 2019 Author Share Posted June 18, 2019 Looks like I am about to get in on some heavy rain here shortly. Current temp 75/DP 70/RH 83% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted June 18, 2019 Share Posted June 18, 2019 3 hours ago, RU848789 said: Yep, just saw the new first paragraph; latest 3 km NAM and HRRR keep the Rahway area dry through 2-3 pm, which is what we need; of course the 12 km NAM has showers for us in that time, as do the globals. Going to be a close call... We got incredibly lucky here in Rahway. Had no rain from 9 am until 1:00 pm, allowing setup to proceed for our big BBQ (1500 people) without any issues and giving us the first 90 minutes (11:30-2:30 pm BBQ, with most people visiting before 1:30 pm) rain-free, when that entire time the radar had it raining <5 miles north of us in most of the rest of Union County. Got some spotty showers until 1:30 pm and then the rain hit with a vengenace. Been raining moderately to occasionally heavily since 1:30 pm. Kind of funny to see everyone hanging out under the tents we have (enough for about 500) and then those who forgot umbrellas walking away under the plastic tablecloths being used as rain gear. Luckily I'm under a gazebo with my equipment (I'm DJ-ing the event) and everything is dry. Could've been way, way worse... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 18, 2019 Author Share Posted June 18, 2019 It looks to me like the best area for severe potential maybe be from about New Brunswick south with heavy rain/strong storms possible north of there. Have to see how the rest of the afternoon/evening plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted June 18, 2019 Share Posted June 18, 2019 If it were me I’d warn that right-mover sup passing through central jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 18, 2019 Share Posted June 18, 2019 Just now, Drz1111 said: If it were me I’d warn that right-mover sup passing through central jersey. Looks kinda nasty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 18, 2019 Author Share Posted June 18, 2019 Yep looks like Union, Somerset and Middlesex Co's are in a good spot for heavy rain right now especially Somerset and Middlesex. I also just started getting some thunder here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted June 18, 2019 Share Posted June 18, 2019 Up to 1.24 in the bucket so far today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted June 18, 2019 Share Posted June 18, 2019 Flash flood warning just issued for NE Mercer, SE Somerset and Central Middlesex up to just about Metuchen. Up to 1-2" more rain to come in the next few hours. https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 18, 2019 Author Share Posted June 18, 2019 Severe warning issued for the storm in southern Somerset/Middlesex Co. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted June 18, 2019 Share Posted June 18, 2019 There's definitely some rotation with that storm near Dayton NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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