frd Posted June 17, 2019 Share Posted June 17, 2019 1 hour ago, bluewave said: No surprise that the front is stalled out near 40N with a SST gradient like this. The cold pool east of New England and the Canadian Maritimes set a new record coldest SST’s for the month of May. @bluewave this SST configuration is also supporting the -NAO. is that true ? Seems according to Ventrice that the NAO may be trending down yet again. nothing extreme. But the general - NAO pattern is still there. Also, how does this cold pool dissapate or does it linger into the Fall ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 17, 2019 Share Posted June 17, 2019 1 hour ago, frd said: @bluewave this SST configuration is also supporting the -NAO. is that true ? Seems according to Ventrice that the NAO may be trending down yet again. nothing extreme. But the general - NAO pattern is still there. Also, how does this cold pool dissapate or does it linger into the Fall ? It’s just representative of a pattern with an unusually strong 50/50 low. Notice how the ensembles keep underestimating its strength around 7-10 days out. So the high temperature potential continues to get muted. New run Old run 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted June 17, 2019 Share Posted June 17, 2019 This is like the inverse of last summer when the models kept trying to break down the WAR past D10 only to get slapped back to reality in the mid range. I'm not going to complain. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted June 17, 2019 Share Posted June 17, 2019 Just now, Gravity Wave said: This is like the inverse of last summer when the models kept trying to break down the WAR past D10 only to get slapped back to reality in the mid range. I'm not going to complain. I'll be complaining when the pattern flips and the WAR rears its ugly head just in time for winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted June 17, 2019 Share Posted June 17, 2019 49 minutes ago, bluewave said: It’s just representative of a pattern with an unusually strong 50/50 low. Notice how the ensembles keep underestimating its strength around 7-10 days out. So the high temperature potential continues to get muted. That is a remarkable new run for sure. I know a couple weather pros that mention the cold pool as a signal for a -NAO next winter. That would be great if it were to happen, but I am not so sure. Also, would not the theory of peaks and valleys simply create an outcome more likely of a +NAO. And, then we keep hearing about melting sea ice and warm season blocking. Maybe the current climate argues against a -NAO in the heart of winter. More research is needed. The only thing certain now is the unlikely odds of a long extreme heat wave around these parts, any time soon. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted June 17, 2019 Share Posted June 17, 2019 What a week to be off from work. Rain everyday =( 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted June 17, 2019 Share Posted June 17, 2019 4 minutes ago, Snow88 said: What a week to be off from work. Rain everyday =( At least we have some storms to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted June 17, 2019 Share Posted June 17, 2019 Meet the new boss - same as the old boss, lol. Just noticed that the old GFS is gone and the "new and improved" GFS-FV3 is here to stay. Below is the NOAA press release. No mention of what seemed like poor performance with overpredicting snowfall all last winter. Performance was only addressed in a general fashion as performing "better" than the old GFS, which will be retired in September of this year. I assume the "GFS" on Tropical Tidbits and Pivotal and other sources is now the GFS-FV3 (Pivotal still lists "GFS-Legacy" which presumably is the old GFS). "The GFS upgrade underwent rigorous testing led by NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Environmental Modeling Center and NCEP Central Operations that included more than 100 scientists, modelers, programmers and technicians from around the country. With real-time evaluations for a year alongside the previous version of the GFS, NOAA carefully documented the strengths of each. When tested against historic weather dating back an additional three years, the upgraded FV3-based GFS performed better across a wide range of weather phenomena. The scientific and performance evaluation shows that the upgraded FV3-based GFS provides results equal to or better than the current global model in many measures. This upgrade establishes the foundation to further advancements in the future as we improve observation quality control, data assimilation, and the model physics." https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/noaa-upgrades-us-global-weather-forecast-model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted June 17, 2019 Share Posted June 17, 2019 On 6/7/2019 at 4:00 PM, RU848789 said: Hey folks - was looking to see if anyone has any input on how serious the rain threat is for Thursday afternoon in the Rahway area. We're scheduled to have a big BBQ for work and almost every major global model right now is showing what looks to be a fairly vigorous upper level trough digging pretty far into the SE with a surface low then tracking NE towards our area, with fairly significant rains from Weds night through Thursday afternoon (NWS NYC/Philly offices are talking about potentially decent rainfall that day in their AFDs). We need to make a call on having it or postponing by Monday at 4 pm - and we do have a couple of covered pavilions in case of a shower or two, but a steady rain would be worth postponing for - so there's still some time to sort things out, but it's not looking great right now. Any insight would be appreciated - thanks! Turns out I postponed our Thursday, 6/13 BBQ at 3 pm on Monday, 6/10, given too high of a probability of rain on Thursday. Ended up being a good decision as 1-2" of rain fell in the Rahway area on Thursday morning and even though the afternoon ended up being dry and cool, the fields were a muddy, puddly mess, which would've sucked for an outdoor event other than mud wrestling (which could've been a sight to see, lol). So, folks, have another event tomorrow with questions: we have a Rahway Site BBQ (different group at work) scheduled for 11:30 am to 2:30 pm tomorrow, rain or shine (we'll have tents for up to 500 people). Still can't get a good handle on tomorrow at this time from the 12Z models. GFS/CMC look quite rainy, but the more granular (in time and scale) mesoscale models are iffy. 12 km NAM just shows a passing shower, while the convection-allowing 3 km NAM shows a more robust line of storms over much of the 12-2 timeframe; presumably the 3 km NAM should be better for this kind of setup. WPC shows tomorrow as being at risk of heavy rain/flash flooding, but little risk of t-storms (same from SPC, which has us under "marginal" risk of convection). Since this is rain or shine, there's not that much to do other than hope it doesn't rain a lot and keep attendance down, especially since t-storm risks look low. Anyone have additional insight to share? Thought the NWS-NYC discussion from this morning was spot on, given the high uncertainties associated with mesoscale summertime showers along stationary fronts. As I've told the event organizer, this could easily be a dry event, but one also can't rule out a couple of showers with the potential for brief downpours and that we'll likely not know for sure until 6-12 hours before the event (and even then could be surprised). .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... The pattern doesn`t change all that much tonight and Tuesday, with rain chances being driven by the timing of weak waves of low pressure at the surface and aloft. There`s somewhat better agreement among the models for likely PoPs eventually reaching all parts of the forecast area at some point tonight and then lasting into a portion of Tuesday. Without sufficient confidence to lower PoPs from the previous forecast, will leave in likely PoPs across the entire area through all of Tuesday. With that said, there will likely be more time when it isn`t raining on Tuesday versus when it is, and greater overall coverage of rain is probably in the morning into early afternoon. Instability and lift remain lacking, so although an isolated TSTM cannot be completely ruled out, will leave it out of the forecast for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 17, 2019 Share Posted June 17, 2019 1 hour ago, RU848789 said: Turns out I postponed our Thursday, 6/13 BBQ at 3 pm on Monday, 6/10, given too high of a probability of rain on Thursday. Ended up being a good decision as 1-2" of rain fell in the Rahway area on Thursday morning and even though the afternoon ended up being dry and cool, the fields were a muddy, puddly mess, which would've sucked for an outdoor event other than mud wrestling (which could've been a sight to see, lol). So, folks, have another event tomorrow with questions: we have a Rahway Site BBQ (different group at work) scheduled for 11:30 am to 2:30 pm tomorrow, rain or shine (we'll have tents for up to 500 people). Still can't get a good handle on tomorrow at this time from the 12Z models. GFS/CMC look quite rainy, but the more granular (in time and scale) mesoscale models are iffy. 12 km NAM just shows a passing shower, while the convection-allowing 3 km NAM shows a more robust line of storms over much of the 12-2 timeframe; presumably the 3 km NAM should be better for this kind of setup. WPC shows tomorrow as being at risk of heavy rain/flash flooding, but little risk of t-storms (same from SPC, which has us under "marginal" risk of convection). Since this is rain or shine, there's not that much to do other than hope it doesn't rain a lot and keep attendance down, especially since t-storm risks look low. Anyone have additional insight to share? Thought the NWS-NYC discussion from this morning was spot on, given the high uncertainties associated with mesoscale summertime showers along stationary fronts. As I've told the event organizer, this could easily be a dry event, but one also can't rule out a couple of showers with the potential for brief downpours and that we'll likely not know for sure until 6-12 hours before the event (and even then could be surprised). I feel like it's going to be hit and miss so best of luck 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 17, 2019 Share Posted June 17, 2019 3 hours ago, RU848789 said: Turns out I postponed our Thursday, 6/13 BBQ at 3 pm on Monday, 6/10, given too high of a probability of rain on Thursday. Ended up being a good decision as 1-2" of rain fell in the Rahway area on Thursday morning and even though the afternoon ended up being dry and cool, the fields were a muddy, puddly mess, which would've sucked for an outdoor event other than mud wrestling (which could've been a sight to see, lol). So, folks, have another event tomorrow with questions: we have a Rahway Site BBQ (different group at work) scheduled for 11:30 am to 2:30 pm tomorrow, rain or shine (we'll have tents for up to 500 people). Still can't get a good handle on tomorrow at this time from the 12Z models. GFS/CMC look quite rainy, but the more granular (in time and scale) mesoscale models are iffy. 12 km NAM just shows a passing shower, while the convection-allowing 3 km NAM shows a more robust line of storms over much of the 12-2 timeframe; presumably the 3 km NAM should be better for this kind of setup. WPC shows tomorrow as being at risk of heavy rain/flash flooding, but little risk of t-storms (same from SPC, which has us under "marginal" risk of convection). Since this is rain or shine, there's not that much to do other than hope it doesn't rain a lot and keep attendance down, especially since t-storm risks look low. Anyone have additional insight to share? Thought the NWS-NYC discussion from this morning was spot on, given the high uncertainties associated with mesoscale summertime showers along stationary fronts. As I've told the event organizer, this could easily be a dry event, but one also can't rule out a couple of showers with the potential for brief downpours and that we'll likely not know for sure until 6-12 hours before the event (and even then could be surprised). .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... The pattern doesn`t change all that much tonight and Tuesday, with rain chances being driven by the timing of weak waves of low pressure at the surface and aloft. There`s somewhat better agreement among the models for likely PoPs eventually reaching all parts of the forecast area at some point tonight and then lasting into a portion of Tuesday. Without sufficient confidence to lower PoPs from the previous forecast, will leave in likely PoPs across the entire area through all of Tuesday. With that said, there will likely be more time when it isn`t raining on Tuesday versus when it is, and greater overall coverage of rain is probably in the morning into early afternoon. Instability and lift remain lacking, so although an isolated TSTM cannot be completely ruled out, will leave it out of the forecast for now. models look wet for tomorrow...new NAM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 17, 2019 Author Share Posted June 17, 2019 Current temp 76/DP 69/RH 75% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted June 17, 2019 Share Posted June 17, 2019 36 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: models look wet for tomorrow...new NAM: Absolutely. Most of the activity has remained to our south the past 2 days however the 18z forecast models want to shift the convection and heavier rain further north tomorrow. The potential for 1-3 inches of rain is possible where every the heavier bands setup. 18z 3K NAM 18z HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted June 17, 2019 Share Posted June 17, 2019 Quite literally everyone on my street took the afternoon off to mow during this brief reprieve from the wet conditions. A mighty din of rattling engines greets you immediately upon egress from the house. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted June 17, 2019 Share Posted June 17, 2019 Just now, Juliancolton said: Quite literally everyone on my street took the afternoon off to mow during this brief reprieve from the wet conditions. A mighty din of rattling engines greets you immediately upon egress from the house. Which, I mean... lawns are extremely silly. Instead of being able to make actual improvements to your property, you have to spend the week's only dry day just maintaining the status quo. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 17, 2019 Share Posted June 17, 2019 31 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: Which, I mean... lawns are extremely silly. Instead of being able to make actual improvements to your property, you have to spend the week's only dry day just maintaining the status quo. native meadows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 17, 2019 Share Posted June 17, 2019 7 hours ago, frd said: That is a remarkable new run for sure. I know a couple weather pros that mention the cold pool as a signal for a -NAO next winter. That would be great if it were to happen, but I am not so sure. Also, would not the theory of peaks and valleys simply create an outcome more likely of a +NAO. And, then we keep hearing about melting sea ice and warm season blocking. Maybe the current climate argues against a -NAO in the heart of winter. More research is needed. The only thing certain now is the unlikely odds of a long extreme heat wave around these parts, any time soon. 8th longest -NAO period on record. The last top 10 run during winter was 10-11. Parts of the area had 60” of snow in just over 30 days. Remarkable that 5 out of the top 10 longest runs occurred during such a short interval from 2010 to 2012. https://mobile.twitter.com/mikarantane/status/1140676758997483520 The current negative North Atlantic Oscillation period has already lasted for 53 days, which makes it 8th longest -NAO periods on record. Still couple of days likely to be added. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted June 17, 2019 Share Posted June 17, 2019 Another day of most of the precip being south of our area. Let’s see what happens tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted June 18, 2019 Share Posted June 18, 2019 Today, readings remained in the 70s across the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. However, temperatures reached the 90s in such cities as Baltimore, Richmond, and Washington, DC. A disturbance heading eastward will bring an increased risk of showers and thunderstorms to the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions tonight through Wednesday. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.7°C for the week centered around June 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.77°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño appear likely to persist through at least late June in Region 3.4. The SOI was -7.59 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was unavailable. The AO could go positive in coming days. However, that period could be short-lived as renewed blocking develops. Blocking is consistent with warmth on the East Coast during the middle and latter part of summer. Hence, should blocking generally persist, the prospects of a warm or perhaps very warm second half of summer could increase. With respect to the current month, there were 13 cases where the AO averaged -0.75 or below during the first half of June. The mean temperature for the second half of June usually fell within 1° of normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region (73.6° is normal in New York City). In addition, since 1950, there was only a single year that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in May and -0.500 or below in June (as appears likely in 2019): 1993. 1993 featured much above normal readings in the East during the late summer (August 15-September 15 period) and predominantly cooler than normal readings across the western third of the nation during much of the summer. On June 16, the MJO moved into Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.845 (RMM). The June 15-adjusted amplitude was 1.425. The implied probability of a warmer than normal June in and around New York City is currently 46%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted June 18, 2019 Share Posted June 18, 2019 I'll take a hot summer like 1993 if next winter is like 1993-94... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted June 18, 2019 Share Posted June 18, 2019 5 hours ago, Juliancolton said: Quite literally everyone on my street took the afternoon off to mow during this brief reprieve from the wet conditions. A mighty din of rattling engines greets you immediately upon egress from the house. Here that was Sunday. They let it dry out on Saturday with the wind then mowed and trimmed and blew clean and ran the chainsaws and chippers and... It was loud. I'm so glad I've got the front lawn down to about 20 minutes of good solid hill work with the mower and have all but given up on the back because nobody can see it but us. I'll have to run through it a few times but with all the trees and stuff down from the winter it's a disaster that I don't feel like tackling. I'd rather spend my yard time growing food, the garden is looking great this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted June 18, 2019 Share Posted June 18, 2019 Does a cooler than normal Summer mean lower sst going into fall? And do lower than average SST in summer mean rainy summer days with a NE wind temps can hover at 60 even in mid august which i have seen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted June 18, 2019 Share Posted June 18, 2019 On 6/15/2019 at 8:36 AM, TriPol said: So, not to get into any climate change debates or anything, but there is MASSIVE ice melt from Greenland coming early this year. Would the melting ice have anything to do with the cool waters off of the NE coast and our weather being cooler than normal? Yup. I suspected this from a couple of months ago. The cold pool of water may actually limit the heat up here, but a strong SE ridge can easily counter that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 18, 2019 Author Share Posted June 18, 2019 Flash Flood Watch extended until late tonight for my area, also a marginal risk for severe storms today which could be upgraded in later outlooks according to the SPC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted June 18, 2019 Share Posted June 18, 2019 Today looks like a washout. Upstream radar is juiced. Hopefully we do not get stuck between convection to the south and stratiform rains to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted June 18, 2019 Share Posted June 18, 2019 Next 8 days are averaging 73.5degs., or 0.5degs. AN. Month to date is -0.6[69.6]. Should be -0.2[70.4], by the 26th. 67.4* here with FOG, Vis. <200' at 6am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 18, 2019 Share Posted June 18, 2019 8 hours ago, IntenseBlizzard2014 said: Yup. I suspected this from a couple of months ago. The cold pool of water may actually limit the heat up here, but a strong SE ridge can easily counter that. The other thing that is currently countering any major heat for us is the near record soil moisture and rains to our west. Record cool temperatures for this time of year there. https://mobile.twitter.com/NWSChicago/status/1140410971426398208 Today's high temperature of 60 degrees at Chicago O'hare is the coldest high during the second half of June that Chicago's experienced in over a quarter century. The last time it was this cold during the second half of June was back on June 20,1992 when the high was 57 degrees 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted June 18, 2019 Share Posted June 18, 2019 2 hours ago, CIK62 said: Next 8 days are averaging 73.5degs., or 0.5degs. AN. Month to date is -0.6[69.6]. Should be -0.2[70.4], by the 26th. 67.4* here with FOG, Vis. <200' at 6am. Improved Vis. in favor of some rain here at 8am 68.5*, Fog 1/2mi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted June 18, 2019 Share Posted June 18, 2019 1 hour ago, bluewave said: The other thing that is currently countering any major heat for us is the near record soil moisture and rains to our west. Record cool temperatures for this time of year there. You often read about the role of soil moisture and seasonal temps, more so in the fall and in the spring. I believe DT talks about this aspect a lot. I believe though it is many times used but may not really be a sound forecast tool. Either the area of excessive rainfall is rather small , or the anomaly is not that great and because of that it can easily be reversed by the high sun angle, longer days and high temps of late spring and early summer. Here though, in your post, it really shows this time it can not be so easily overlooked. The map is pretty impressive, not only in regards to record soil moisture, but also the vast area covered. of interest is this : 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted June 18, 2019 Share Posted June 18, 2019 Last several runs of the HRRR showing a lull in precip/storms from about 9 am until 2 pm, which would be perfect for our BBQ; crossing fingers... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now