frd Posted June 12, 2019 Share Posted June 12, 2019 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: It seems like all the record Pacific SST warmth west of the dateline produced more of La Niña response from the SOI, MJO, and Pacific Jet. Are you focusing at all on the area of warmth East of Aussie ? Some stated that contributed, and or supported, the robust High Pressure system in the central Pac which in turn how some effected on the WAR over in the Atlantic. I know both you and Tip from the New England forum mentioned the vastness of the warmth in the Pac, but a lack of a single focused warm area as an issue. Comparing it to a warm bathtub, just warmth everywhere and sloshing around. Lastly, the ability to couple the ocean and the atmosphere as Don S and Isotherm mentioned a few times as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 12, 2019 Share Posted June 12, 2019 54 minutes ago, frd said: Are you focusing at all on the area of warmth East of Aussie ? Some stated that contributed, and or supported, the robust High Pressure system in the central Pac which in turn how some effected on the WAR over in the Atlantic. I know both you and Tip from the New England forum mentioned the vastness of the warmth in the Pac, but a lack of a single focused warm area as an issue. Comparing it to a warm bathtub, just warmth everywhere and sloshing around. Lastly, the ability to couple the ocean and the atmosphere as Don S and Isotherm mentioned a few times as well. Yeah, the entire Pacific Basin west of the dateline. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 12, 2019 Share Posted June 12, 2019 hot and stormy 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted June 12, 2019 Share Posted June 12, 2019 At 12z the FV3 replaced the GFS. As for as NYC is concerned, the guidance is now colder throughout the MEX MOS vs. the 0z run (prior version). A similar cooling was visible on the MEX MOS forecast for San Francisco. Forecast precipitation for Thursday-Friday has diverged both from the prior GFS runs and the NAM runs (through 12z), with the FV3 showing only 0.10" rain. The 12z NAM shows approximately 0.70". The 12z GGEM shows approximately 0.90". With the last rainstorm, the consensus was 0.50"-1.50" and 1.07" fell. The FV3 showed much higher amounts. As with the last storm, I suspect NYC will pick up 0.50"-1.50" rain. If so, the FV3 will record another big "miss" within a less than one-week period. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 12, 2019 Share Posted June 12, 2019 3 hours ago, forkyfork said: hot and stormy I'll take it. The pleasant weather has been a bit too boring for my taste. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted June 12, 2019 Share Posted June 12, 2019 3 hours ago, bluewave said: Maybe the first 70-75 degree dew points of the season around Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted June 12, 2019 Share Posted June 12, 2019 Another system could bring another 0.50" to 1.50" precipitation to parts of the region tomorrow into Friday. The heaviest rain appears likely to fall in an area running from near Washington, DC northeastward across southeastern Pennsylvania into adjacent New Jersey. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.9°C for the week centered around June 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.80°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño appear likely to persist through at least late June in Region 3.4. The SOI was +9.14 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.179. The ongoing blocking will likely continue through mid-month and then could slowly fade. At the same time, blocking is consistent with warmth on the East Coast during the middle and latter part of summer. Hence, should blocking generally persist, the prospects of a warm or perhaps very warm second half of summer could increase. With respect to the current month, there were 13 cases where the AO averaged -0.75 or below during the first half of June. The mean temperature for the second half of June usually fell within 1° of normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. On June 11, the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.679 (RMM). The amplitude was somewhat lower than the June 10-adjusted figure of 0.816. Since 1974, 7 years saw the MJO in Phases 1 or 2 at an amplitude of 2.000 or above during the May 27-June 5 period. The mean temperature for those cases during the June 1-15 period in New York City was 68.2°, which was about a degree below the mean temperature for the entire period. Thus, the MJO signal may reinforce the idea of a somewhat cooler than normal to near normal first half of June indicated from the recent warming of ENSO Region 1+2. Based on the latest guidance, the implied mean temperature for the first half of June is about 68.7° (0.6° below normal). The second half of June, particularly after June 20th could feature warmer conditions relative to normal than what is likely through mid-month. However, exceptional warmth currently appears unlikely. Nevertheless, there remains a distinct possibility that the 90° isotherm will reach New York City at some point before June ends. The implied probability of a warmer than normal June in and around New York City remains near 60%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 13, 2019 Author Share Posted June 13, 2019 Looks like most of NJ and the NYC metro area is in the doughnut hole with a swath of moderate to heavy rain to our east and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 13, 2019 Share Posted June 13, 2019 30 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: Looks like most of NJ and the NYC metro area is in the doughnut hole with a swath of moderate to heavy rain to our east and west. Yeah we ain't getting much from this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted June 13, 2019 Share Posted June 13, 2019 Next 8 days are averaging 72degs., or just Normal. Month to date is +0.5[69.4]. Should be +0.3[70.4], by the 21st. We are about to start the 80/80 period, meaning 80 straight days of highs at least 80*+, peaking near 85* on July 23. July 21 has been the most likely day for 100* in NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted June 13, 2019 Share Posted June 13, 2019 I may be west of the NYC/NJ metro area.(40 miles). It's raining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 13, 2019 Share Posted June 13, 2019 3 hours ago, Rtd208 said: Looks like most of NJ and the NYC metro area is in the doughnut hole with a swath of moderate to heavy rain to our east and west. the ol 7-10 split--models showed this nicely last couple of days... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 13, 2019 Share Posted June 13, 2019 Only the 2nd time this decade that LGA hasn’t reached 90 degrees by June 13th. Less warm is the new cool as our high temperature potential remains muted. Time Series Summary for LA GUARDIA AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Highest Max Temperature Mar 1 to Jun 13 Missing Count 1 2014-06-13 87 0 2 2019-06-13 89 1 3 2012-06-13 90 0 4 2016-06-13 92 0 - 2015-06-13 92 0 6 2018-06-13 93 0 - 2013-06-13 93 0 8 2010-06-13 94 0 9 2011-06-13 97 0 10 2017-06-13 101 0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted June 13, 2019 Share Posted June 13, 2019 Getting some strong winds in Wantagh right now. Looks like everyone should get at least an inch of rain too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted June 13, 2019 Share Posted June 13, 2019 4 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: Yeah we ain't getting much from this. Let’s see how that works out. Area of training heavy rains is going to move through the whole area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 13, 2019 Author Share Posted June 13, 2019 Pouring here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted June 13, 2019 Share Posted June 13, 2019 61 and heavy rain here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted June 13, 2019 Share Posted June 13, 2019 52 and rain. Not bad for April 13th...oh wait. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 13, 2019 Share Posted June 13, 2019 4 minutes ago, JerseyWx said: 52 and rain. Not bad for April 13th...oh wait. The near record 588 DM ridge was over Greenland instead of our area. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted June 13, 2019 Share Posted June 13, 2019 0.50" here so far, 56°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 13, 2019 Share Posted June 13, 2019 The heaviest rain looks to be out of the area in the next hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted June 13, 2019 Share Posted June 13, 2019 As of 10 am, NYC (Central Park) had received 0.25" rain. Already, that's well above the yesterday's 12z FV3, which was a low outlier. Yesterday, following the 12z runs, I had noted that with the implementation of the FV3, forecast precipitation for today into tomorrow had diverged both from the prior GFS runs and the NAM runs (through 12z), with the FV3 showing only 0.10" rain. It appears that this event could be the FV3's second large miss on qpf within 24 hours of an event for NYC for the second time this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted June 13, 2019 Share Posted June 13, 2019 7 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: Yeah we ain't getting much from this. 4 hours ago, Brian5671 said: the ol 7-10 split--models showed this nicely last couple of days... Who is winning the game tonight? Cant wait to make bank on the opposite bet. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted June 13, 2019 Share Posted June 13, 2019 .4", 54* and the heavy stuff is incoming in the next little bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted June 13, 2019 Share Posted June 13, 2019 0,60" so far...it's almost over... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 13, 2019 Share Posted June 13, 2019 26 minutes ago, uncle W said: 0,60" so far...it's almost over... Looks like NYC will continue the record setting monthly 3.00” streak which began in February 2018. This should be the 17th consecutive month with no end in sight. NYC could even do it next week with all the convection in the forecast. Monthly Total Precipitation for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual 2018 2.18 5.83 5.17 5.78 3.53 3.11 7.45 8.59 6.19 3.59 7.62 6.51 65.55 2019 3.58 3.14 3.87 4.55 6.82 1.97 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted June 13, 2019 Share Posted June 13, 2019 ^^^It been an amazing stretch...every event either lives up to or over performs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 13, 2019 Share Posted June 13, 2019 2 hours ago, BxEngine said: Who is winning the game tonight? Cant wait to make bank on the opposite bet. got about .30 here That's not much. Models showed the dryslot pretty well the last 2 days.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted June 13, 2019 Share Posted June 13, 2019 Roads were flooded in Hackensack around 10:30 this morning. Breaks of sun now in the Parsippany area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 13, 2019 Share Posted June 13, 2019 Sun is out, looks like a decent afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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