June 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[dmillz25]

87/57 here

[bluewave]

Well defined sea breeze front pushing north on Long Island.

 

[psv88]

15 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Well defined sea breeze front pushing north on Long Island.

 

yea i can see the clouds outside my office. 88 here, hottest of the day

[FPizz]

91

[NYCweatherNOW]

Too hot but at least in the shade your okay, no humidity what so ever 87 here

[dWave]

57 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said:

86 at the Park, maybe NYC's first 90 of the year on the way? 

Pretty unlikely. The Park actually dropped a degree since then to 85, while everywhere else continued to climb. The Park fell to the same temp as JFK despite the SW wind there.

LGA 88

Newark 89

JFK 85.

 

Temp by me just hit 90.

[Gravity Wave]

Yeah it's probably not happening 

[bluewave]

33 minutes ago, psv88 said:

yea i can see the clouds outside my office. 88 here, hottest of the day

First day above 85 at Islip since May 26th.

[psv88]

3 minutes ago, dWave said:

Pretty unlikely. The Park actually dropped a degree since then to 85, while everywhere else continued to climb. The Park fell to the same temp as JFK despite the SW wind there.

LGA 88

Newark 89

JFK 85.

 

Temp by me just hit 90.

The park is a joke. FRG is 86 and its 5 miles from the ocean, and much of LI is 86-88. 

[bluewave]

15 minutes ago, psv88 said:

The park is a joke. FRG is 86 and its 5 miles from the ocean, and much of LI is 86-88. 

They should have left the thermometer up on the castle where it had been before 1996. Moving from the direct sunlight into the shade beneath the canopy created an artificial high temperature cooling trend. Notice how it’s the only station with a declining 90 degree day count since 1980 among EWR, LGA, and NYC.

 

 

[Stormlover74]

21 minutes ago, dWave said:

Pretty unlikely. The Park actually dropped a degree since then to 85, while everywhere else continued to climb. The Park fell to the same temp as JFK despite the SW wind there.

LGA 88

Newark 89

JFK 85.

 

Temp by me just hit 90.

Maybe tomorrow or Friday but certainly no guarantee

[Rtd208]

Current temp 91//DP 61/RH 33%

[Stormlover74]

90 now Newark, Caldwell and teterboro 

[forkyfork]

4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

90 now Newark, Caldwell and teterboro 

still 85 at the park. lol

[CIK62]

Remainder of June now averaging 81*, or +7.      The next 8 days are averaging 82*, or +7.5.      What if the jetstream begins to suffer from Lock Jaw?      Beach was still tolerable even w/o any clouds, and 70 degree water still a relieve.     I do not want to see it any hotter on the holidays, neither does EMS.  

Nothing untoward here:

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/ensemble/data2/combine/images3/2019062612_054@007_E1_knyc_I_NAEFS@EPSGRAMS_dz1000@500_360.png 

Paris getting the worst of their heatwave now.    At least it sounds like it won't be Chicago 1995 for the disadvantaged.    Good prep apparently, from many articles I have noticed.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-48770248

[dWave]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

Maybe tomorrow or Friday but certainly no guarantee

Todays warmth and sunshine may set the stage for one of the next 2 days. Gotta dry out that area some to have a shot, absent of more intense mid 90s type of day.  That or get to 90 before the mid/late afternoon shade sets in there.

[NycStormChaser]

Some nice severe warned storms moving into the Hudson Valley. They shouldn't survive much longer though.

[Cfa]

Made it up to 89, cooled down a bit though.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

3 hours ago, psv88 said:

Soil moisture doesn't seem to be holding us back today. Forecast was 84, and its currently 88

I’m talking about the larger scale environment. There is a reason NYC had it’s all time record during the dust bowl years. 

And it’s amazing how quickly things dry out this time of year! Already back to watering 

[uofmiami]

86.3 for my high in Syosset.

[SnoSki14]

We're getting 90s with relatively modest ridging and wet soils, imagine what would happen if a giant heat dome were ever to set up. 

[NycStormChaser]

Uptons latest discussion regarding this weekend into next week.

[Dan76]

3 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I’m talking about the larger scale environment. There is a reason NYC had it’s all time record during the dust bowl years. 

And it’s amazing how quickly things dry out this time of year! Already back to watering 

Grass starting to burn already.

[donsutherland1]

Historic June heat enveloped parts of Europe today. High temperature highlights included: Brive, France: 100° (tied all-time record); Clermont-Ferrand, France: 106° (all-time record); Dresden: 97° (June record); Frankfurt: 99° (June record); Innsbruck: 95° (tied June record); Luxeuil, France: 99° (June record); Nancy, France: 99° (June record); Orange, France: 102° (June record); Poznan, Poland: 100° (tied all-time record); Prague: 97° (June record); Wiesbaden: 98° (June record); and, Wroclaw, Poland: 99° (June record).

In the Northeast, the warmest temperatures so far this summer will likely be experienced tomorrow and Friday. New York City could approach or even reach 90° for the first time this summer on either day.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around June 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.02°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.77°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions could develop later this month and then continue into at least the first half of July.

The SOI was -19.47 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.673.

Blocking is consistent with warmth on the East Coast during the middle and latter part of summer. Hence, should blocking generally persist, the prospects of a warm or perhaps very warm second half of summer could increase.

With respect to the current month, there were 13 cases where the AO averaged -0.75 or below during the first half of June. The mean temperature for the second half of June usually fell within 1° of normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region (73.6° is normal in New York City). According to the latest guidance, the June 16-30 temperature could finish near 74.6°. During the closing week of June, parts of the Northeast could see their warmest temperatures so far this summer.

In addition, since 1950, there was only a single year that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in May and -0.500 or below in June (as appears likely in 2019): 1993. 1993 featured much above normal readings in the East during the late summer (August 15-September 15 period) and predominantly cooler than normal readings across the western third of the nation during much of the summer.

On June 25, the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 0.769 (RMM). The June 24-adjusted amplitude was 0.695.

Since 1974 when MJO data was reported, years in which the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for at least two days, as was the case this year, were typically warmer than normal and drier than normal during the first 10 days of July. 1975 and 1985 were somewhat cooler than normal and very wet during the July 1-10 period. Some of the extended guidance is continuing to suggest a warmer and drier outcome with the warmest anomalies likely during the second half of that period.

Since 1994, there have been 6 cases where the SOI fell to -35.00 or below during the June 16-30 period as occurred on June 21-22. Following such SOI outcomes, the July 1-15 temperature averaged approximately 3.5° above the June 16-30 figure in New York City. Based on the modeled June 16-30 outcome, that would imply that the first half of July would be among the top third warmest first halves of the month on record. In addition, 4/6 (67%) of those cases were followed by an El Niño winter (one was followed by a La Niña winter and one was followed by a neutral ENSO winter).

The implied probability of a warmer than normal June in and around New York City is currently 65%.

　

[SACRUS]

6/26

ACY: 91
EWR: 91
TEB: 91
PHL: 90
LGA: 90
New Brnswick: 89
BLM: 89
TTN: 88
ISP: 87
NYC: 87
JFK: 86

 

[TriPol]

53 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Historic June heat enveloped parts of Europe today. High temperature highlights included: Brive, France: 100° (tied all-time record); Clermont-Ferrand, France: 106° (all-time record); Dresden: 97° (June record); Frankfurt: 99° (June record); Innsbruck: 95° (tied June record); Luxeuil, France: 99° (June record); Nancy, France: 99° (June record); Orange, France: 102° (June record); Poznan, Poland: 100° (tied all-time record); Prague: 97° (June record); Wiesbaden: 98° (June record); and, Wroclaw, Poland: 99° (June record).

In the Northeast, the warmest temperatures so far this summer will likely be experienced tomorrow and Friday. New York City could approach or even reach 90° for the first time this summer on either day.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around June 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.02°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.77°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions could develop later this month and then continue into at least the first half of July.

The SOI was -19.47 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.673.

Blocking is consistent with warmth on the East Coast during the middle and latter part of summer. Hence, should blocking generally persist, the prospects of a warm or perhaps very warm second half of summer could increase.

With respect to the current month, there were 13 cases where the AO averaged -0.75 or below during the first half of June. The mean temperature for the second half of June usually fell within 1° of normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region (73.6° is normal in New York City). According to the latest guidance, the June 16-30 temperature could finish near 74.6°. During the closing week of June, parts of the Northeast could see their warmest temperatures so far this summer.

In addition, since 1950, there was only a single year that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in May and -0.500 or below in June (as appears likely in 2019): 1993. 1993 featured much above normal readings in the East during the late summer (August 15-September 15 period) and predominantly cooler than normal readings across the western third of the nation during much of the summer.

On June 25, the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 0.769 (RMM). The June 24-adjusted amplitude was 0.695.

Since 1974 when MJO data was reported, years in which the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for at least two days, as was the case this year, were typically warmer than normal and drier than normal during the first 10 days of July. 1975 and 1985 were somewhat cooler than normal and very wet during the July 1-10 period. Some of the extended guidance is continuing to suggest a warmer and drier outcome with the warmest anomalies likely during the second half of that period.

Since 1994, there have been 6 cases where the SOI fell to -35.00 or below during the June 16-30 period as occurred on June 21-22. Following such SOI outcomes, the July 1-15 temperature averaged approximately 3.5° above the June 16-30 figure in New York City. Based on the modeled June 16-30 outcome, that would imply that the first half of July would be among the top third warmest first halves of the month on record. In addition, 4/6 (67%) of those cases were followed by an El Niño winter (one was followed by a La Niña winter and one was followed by a neutral ENSO winter).

The implied probability of a warmer than normal June in and around New York City is currently 65%.

　

Perhaps we shall have an interesting winter?

[Rtd208]

High for the day yesterday was 91 here.

Current temp 78/DP 66/RH 64%

[Rtd208]

SPC introduces a marginal risk for our area on Saturday. I think we will eventually see a slight risk as we move closer.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html

 

[CIK62]

Last 4 days of June are averaging 79.6degs , or about 5.6degs. AN.

Month to date is  -0.5[70.4].      June should end at +0.3[71.6].

76.2* here at 6am.  77.3* at 7am.  Hit 80.0* by 9:15am.  Temperature going nowhere here, 80.2* at 11am.  84.4* at 1pm.

[bluewave]

5th latest day in the season to go above 90 degrees at Newark. 8th latest first day to reach 90 degrees at LGA. You can thank all the rain and the -NAO for the hold up.

First/Last Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	First	Value	Last	Value	Difference
1935	07-11 (1935)	91	08-01 (1935)	92	20
1982	07-08 (1982)	94	07-26 (1982)	95	17
1972	07-02 (1972)	91	09-17 (1972)	93	76
1947	07-01 (1947)	92	08-26 (1947)	94	55
2019	06-26 (2019)	91	-	-	-

 

 

First/Last Summary for LA GUARDIA AP, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	First	Value	Last	Value	Difference
1978	07-21 (1978)	91	08-17 (1978)	90	26
1972	07-19 (1972)	90	09-17 (1972)	90	59
1985	07-14 (1985)	94	09-06 (1985)	92	53
1947	07-14 (1947)	90	08-26 (1947)	92	42
1960	07-09 (1960)	90	09-01 (1960)	90	53
1982	07-08 (1982)	93	07-26 (1982)	93	17
2014	07-02 (2014)	91	09-06 (2014)	91	65
1958	07-01 (1958)	93	08-15 (1958)	92	44
2019	06-26 (2019)	90	-	-	-