Rtd208 Posted June 25, 2019 Author Share Posted June 25, 2019 Looks like both Mt.Holly and Upton lowered temps slightly from tomorrow thru Saturday with temps forecast to be in the upper 80's to around 90. Still hot though and humidity and dewpoints should be fairly uncomfortable especially late week/early weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted June 25, 2019 Share Posted June 25, 2019 59 minutes ago, bluewave said: The midlevel lapse rates look like they may be really impressive later Friday into Saturday. Lapse rates are one of the things we're usually lacking for severe wx. Definitely something to look out for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted June 25, 2019 Share Posted June 25, 2019 76/74....this is more like it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted June 25, 2019 Share Posted June 25, 2019 My time lapse video from this mornings storms over Manhattan. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted June 25, 2019 Share Posted June 25, 2019 Daily and, in cases, monthly record heat stretched from the Middle East to Europe today. On account of several remarkable outbreaks of heat, the global temperature anomaly of +0.98°C for 2019 ranks 3rd highest on record for the January-May period. Nine of the ten and 17 of the 20 warmest January-May periods occurred 2000 and afterward. All occurred 1990 or later. Nevertheless, the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas have yet to experience excessive heat. However, that region could see its warmest readings so far this summer during the next several days. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around June 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.02°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.77°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions could develop later this month and then continue into at least the first half of July. The SOI was -3.87 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.569. Blocking is consistent with warmth on the East Coast during the middle and latter part of summer. Hence, should blocking generally persist, the prospects of a warm or perhaps very warm second half of summer could increase. With respect to the current month, there were 13 cases where the AO averaged -0.75 or below during the first half of June. The mean temperature for the second half of June usually fell within 1° of normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region (73.6° is normal in New York City). According to the latest guidance, the June 16-30 temperature could finish near 74.6°. During the closing week of June, parts of the Northeast could see their warmest temperatures so far this summer. In addition, since 1950, there was only a single year that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in May and -0.500 or below in June (as appears likely in 2019): 1993. 1993 featured much above normal readings in the East during the late summer (August 15-September 15 period) and predominantly cooler than normal readings across the western third of the nation during much of the summer. On June 24, the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 0.696 (RMM). The June 23-adjusted amplitude was 0.708. Since 1974 when MJO data was reported, years in which the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for at least two days, as was the case this year, were typically warmer than normal and drier than normal during the first 10 days of July. 1975 and 1985 were somewhat cooler than normal and very wet during the July 1-10 period. Some of the extended guidance is continuing to suggest a warmer and drier outcome with the warmest anomalies likely during the second half of that period. Since 1994, there have been 6 cases where the SOI fell to -35.00 or below during the June 16-30 period as occurred on June 21-22. Following such SOI outcomes, the July 1-15 temperature averaged approximately 3.5° above the June 16-30 figure in New York City. Based on the modeled June 16-30 outcome, that would imply that the first half of July would be among the top third warmest first halves of the month on record. In addition, 4/6 (67%) of those cases were followed by an El Niño winter (one was followed by a La Niña winter and one was followed by a neutral ENSO winter). The implied probability of a warmer than normal June in and around New York City has increased to 57%. In addition, the probability that New York City will receive 50" or more precipitation is currently 72%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted June 25, 2019 Share Posted June 25, 2019 Partly sunny with a little shower that popped up over me. 82 dew 73 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 26, 2019 Share Posted June 26, 2019 6/25 Highs ACY: 89 EWR: 88 PHL: 88 New Brnswick: 88 TEB: 88 LGA: 87 TTN: 87 BLM: 86 NYC: 84 JFK: 81 ISP: 74 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted June 26, 2019 Share Posted June 26, 2019 This is some of the densest fog I’ve ever seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 26, 2019 Author Share Posted June 26, 2019 High for the day was 89 here. This looks to be the theme for the next 4 days, temps hovering right around 90. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted June 26, 2019 Share Posted June 26, 2019 Here we go with typical summer weather. Today should be fine with dews lower, last evening was the first true steam bath of the season in the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted June 26, 2019 Share Posted June 26, 2019 Last 5 days of June are averaging 80degs., or 6degs. AN. Month to date is -0.7[70.1]. June should end near +0.4[71.7]. 74.3* here at 6am. 75.7* at 7am. 78.9* at 10am(slower rise than I expected) 80.2* at 11am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 26, 2019 Share Posted June 26, 2019 A rare hot, dry day on tap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 26, 2019 Share Posted June 26, 2019 June dep thru 6/25 PHL: -0.1 TTN: -0.3 LGA: -0.4 EWR: -0.6 NYC: -0.7 JFK: -0.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 26, 2019 Share Posted June 26, 2019 First widespread 90s for many (even the park?) the next 4 days ahead of the next front sunday. July 4th week 7/1-7/5 and beyond looking warm starting 7/3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 26, 2019 Author Share Posted June 26, 2019 Current temp 80/DP 64/RH 55% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 26, 2019 Share Posted June 26, 2019 10AM Roundup New Brnswick: 82 TEB: 82 EWR: 82 JFK: 81 ACY: 81 LGA: 80 PHL: 79 TTN: 79 ISP: 78 NYC: 78 BLM: 78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted June 26, 2019 Share Posted June 26, 2019 2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said: A rare hot, dry day on tap Textbook day shaping up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 26, 2019 Share Posted June 26, 2019 9 minutes ago, JerseyWx said: Textbook day shaping up. Looks like a long stretch of 85 and above now too even if we don't have anything above the low 90s. The "cooldown" for Sunday and Monday seems muted now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted June 26, 2019 Share Posted June 26, 2019 While there is only about 5 degrees F to play with in July between the mean and the all time record of 81.4*, the first halve of July looks to be +2.5 to +4.0, if clouds and rain do not interfere, while no BDCF's kick in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 26, 2019 Share Posted June 26, 2019 26 minutes ago, CIK62 said: While there is only about 5 degrees F to play with in July between the mean and the all time record of 81.4*, the first halve of July looks to be +2.5 to +4.0, if clouds and rain do not interfere, while no BDCF's kick in. +4 would be a massive inferno for July, like 2013 (first 3 weeks) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 26, 2019 Share Posted June 26, 2019 Pretty impressive for NYC to have 10 months with over 5.00” of precipitation since February 2018. 2018 2.18 5.83 5.17 5.78 3.53 3.11 7.45 8.59 6.19 3.59 7.62 6.51 65.55 2019 3.58 3.14 3.87 4.55 6.82 5.32 M M M M M M 27.28 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted June 26, 2019 Share Posted June 26, 2019 29 minutes ago, bluewave said: Pretty impressive for NYC to have 10 months with over 5.00” of precipitation since February 2018. 2018 2.18 5.83 5.17 5.78 3.53 3.11 7.45 8.59 6.19 3.59 7.62 6.51 65.55 2019 3.58 3.14 3.87 4.55 6.82 5.32 M M M M M M 27.28 11 such days here also....Precipitation amounts of 69.50" in 2018 and 31.87" so far this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted June 26, 2019 Share Posted June 26, 2019 Friday, Saturday and Sunday all need to be monitored for potential thunderstorm activity. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 26, 2019 Share Posted June 26, 2019 18 minutes ago, doncat said: 11 such days here also....Precipitation amounts of 69.50" in 2018 and 31.87" so far this year. 2018 set the record for the most days with measurable rainfall in NYC. 2019 is currently in 3rd place for Jan-Jun. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Precipitation >= .01 Missing Count 1 2018 158 0 2 1996 152 0 3 1972 145 0 4 2003 142 0 5 2008 141 0 - 1950 141 0 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Number of Days Precipitation >= .01 Jan 1 to Jun 30 Missing Count 1 1950-06-30 84 0 2 1972-06-30 81 0 3 2019-06-30 79 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted June 26, 2019 Share Posted June 26, 2019 86/64 here. A sultry 83/67 at JFK with sw winds off the water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 26, 2019 Share Posted June 26, 2019 2 hours ago, Brian5671 said: +4 would be a massive inferno for July, like 2013 (first 3 weeks) Not necessarily, will probably be a high min type of deal with highs hovering at or in the low 90s. That's enough for a +4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted June 26, 2019 Share Posted June 26, 2019 2 hours ago, Brian5671 said: +4 would be a massive inferno for July, like 2013 (first 3 weeks) Yes it would....a +4 departure is huge for a summer month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted June 26, 2019 Share Posted June 26, 2019 35 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Not necessarily, will probably be a high min type of deal with highs hovering at or in the low 90s. That's enough for a +4 Agreed. Soil moisture is way too high upstream. You need hot/dry air masses to advect from the SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted June 26, 2019 Share Posted June 26, 2019 3 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Agreed. Soil moisture is way too high upstream. You need hot/dry air masses to advect from the SW. Soil moisture doesn't seem to be holding us back today. Forecast was 84, and its currently 88 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted June 26, 2019 Share Posted June 26, 2019 86 at the Park, maybe NYC's first 90 of the year on the way? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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