NycStormChaser Posted June 20, 2019 Share Posted June 20, 2019 Pretty significant flooding event unfolding across the Reading area. Radar estimates 4 inch of rain fell in one hour with more on the way tonight. Areas south of Philly have received a similar amount. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 20, 2019 Author Share Posted June 20, 2019 Marginal risk holds for the NYC metro in the new day 1 outlook. Have to see what happens in later updates. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted June 20, 2019 Share Posted June 20, 2019 3 hours ago, NycStormChaser said: Pretty significant flooding event unfolding across the Reading area. Radar estimates 4 inch of rain fell in one hour with more on the way tonight. Areas south of Philly have received a similar amount. Northwest of Philly under the gun now. Serious rainfall rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted June 20, 2019 Share Posted June 20, 2019 Next 8 days averaging 76degs., or 3degs. AN. Month to date is -0.9[69.1]. Should be +0.3[71.1], by the 28th. Next week looks like a modified version of this week with higher temps. and lower precip. chances---week 2 really looks drier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted June 20, 2019 Share Posted June 20, 2019 This non stop rain is getting insane. It’s not the quantity (at least on the uws) but the duration. It has rained a good portion of the last few days. I would much rather be south of the boundary with occasional convection then this non stop stratiform rain. I will say, the lawns here on campus are looking the best they ever have! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 20, 2019 Author Share Posted June 20, 2019 Uh oh it looks like the KDIX radar isn't updating, maybe its down again?? And its back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted June 20, 2019 Share Posted June 20, 2019 Totally fogged in here. Can't see 300 yards to the end of the block. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted June 20, 2019 Share Posted June 20, 2019 16 minutes ago, bluewave said: Early indications are that at least the beginning of July will continue with the cool trough east of New England. Tough to go against that record cold pool. Back door after back door. Bring it on... lets see if we can get some sun for destabilization. If we stay socked in the chances for any decent thunderstorms will be crushed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 20, 2019 Share Posted June 20, 2019 16 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Back door after back door. Bring it on... lets see if we can get some sun for destabilization. If we stay socked in the chances for any decent thunderstorms will be crushed The one consolation prize looks to be a dry NW flow weekend with lower dewpoints. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted June 20, 2019 Share Posted June 20, 2019 1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Back door after back door. Bring it on... lets see if we can get some sun for destabilization. If we stay socked in the chances for any decent thunderstorms will be crushed For me Id rather stay socked in because I have a doubleheader for softball later at 630/730. We have had 4 rainouts we don't need more! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 20, 2019 Share Posted June 20, 2019 Foggy misty and 66. Warm front still south of CT..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 20, 2019 Share Posted June 20, 2019 2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Foggy misty and 66. Warm front still south of CT..... Hasn't even cleared central nj yet...long way to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted June 20, 2019 Share Posted June 20, 2019 15 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Hasn't even cleared central nj yet...long way to go That seems to be the theme it's season...often times we'll see the warm front jump north just ahead of the cold front, but that doesn't give much time for destabilization. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted June 20, 2019 Share Posted June 20, 2019 15 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Hasn't even cleared central nj yet...long way to go So that would mean more hours of overcast skies? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 20, 2019 Share Posted June 20, 2019 10 minutes ago, allgame830 said: So that would mean more hours of overcast skies? Would seem so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted June 20, 2019 Share Posted June 20, 2019 3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Would seem so Just before nine it started to brighten in the 11231 area. In the winter there was always a temptation, on my part, to wish cast for snow. I never thought I could do it during meteorological summer for sunshine. As always ...... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted June 20, 2019 Share Posted June 20, 2019 22 minutes ago, allgame830 said: So that would mean more hours of overcast skies? Personally I think by the early afternoon hours Central NJ on south is clear. You can see the clearing already starting to happen to our west / south west. Lower to mid 70s dew points are moving north through New Jersey into NYC and once areas get daytime heating CAPE values should be in the 2000-3000 J/KG. I do think this will be a mostly Hudson River on west day though with some severe storms thunderstormspopping up throughout the late afternoon and evening. (Might have to click play on the GIF) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 20, 2019 Share Posted June 20, 2019 More than a month of rainfall in just 3 hours around Philly. https://mobile.twitter.com/weatherchannel/status/1141329701178368000 Philadelphia has received more than 4 inches of rain in the past 3 hours. Normal rainfall for the entire month of June is 3.43 inches. Several Flash Flood Warnings are in effect, please heed them https://mobile.twitter.com/Maxar_Weather/status/1141673939468529664 The 4.04" that Philly saw within a three-hour span overnight has an annual exceedance probability of 1%, or a so-called "100-year flood" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted June 20, 2019 Share Posted June 20, 2019 It looks like it's trying to brighten outside looking south. Also the fog has lifted above 30th fl window in lower manhattan and I can see outside again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted June 20, 2019 Share Posted June 20, 2019 8.03" in Tabernacle NJ yesterday, crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted June 20, 2019 Share Posted June 20, 2019 Keep in mind it was the warm front that produced the flooding in NJ/PHL last evening. The small circulation currently in southern PA will help produce fairly numerous storms along the warm front this afternoon, which will likely be right over the city. The setup is different from yesterday and the day before, but I think we should see fairly numerous thunderstorms ~2-7PM. Already getting development in NJ/PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted June 20, 2019 Share Posted June 20, 2019 7 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: Keep in mind it was the warm front that produced the flooding in NJ/PHL last evening. The small circulation currently in southern PA will help produce fairly numerous storms along the warm front this afternoon, which will likely be right over the city. The setup is different from yesterday and the day before, but I think we should see fairly numerous thunderstorms ~2-7PM. Already getting development in NJ/PA. HRDPS is showing your thoughts also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted June 20, 2019 Share Posted June 20, 2019 12 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: Keep in mind it was the warm front that produced the flooding in NJ/PHL last evening. The small circulation currently in southern PA will help produce fairly numerous storms along the warm front this afternoon, which will likely be right over the city. The setup is different from yesterday and the day before, but I think we should see fairly numerous thunderstorms ~2-7PM. Already getting development in NJ/PA. So where is the warm front currently. What about up in the Lower Hudson Valley? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted June 20, 2019 Share Posted June 20, 2019 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2019 Northern PA/NJ/NY into New England... Persistent cloud cover is limiting heating/destabilization from northern PA/NJ northward into New England. Despite the limited thermodynamic environment, model guidance and recent radar trends suggest the potential for scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Forecast soundings show very favorable vertical shear profiles for organized or even rotating storms capable of gusty winds and perhaps a tornado. However, given the weak CAPE profiles, it appears that the severe risk in this area will remain widely spaced and primarily marginal. Nevertheless, have extended the SLGT risk area northward into central NY ahead of ongoing strong activity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted June 20, 2019 Share Posted June 20, 2019 3 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said: Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2019 Northern PA/NJ/NY into New England... Persistent cloud cover is limiting heating/destabilization from northern PA/NJ northward into New England. Despite the limited thermodynamic environment, model guidance and recent radar trends suggest the potential for scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Forecast soundings show very favorable vertical shear profiles for organized or even rotating storms capable of gusty winds and perhaps a tornado. However, given the weak CAPE profiles, it appears that the severe risk in this area will remain widely spaced and primarily marginal. Nevertheless, have extended the SLGT risk area northward into central NY ahead of ongoing strong activity. The SPC also added a 2% tornado risk for the upstate ny / new england area. The HRRR has been showing a chance of tornado up there for the last 12 runs so SPC must feel it is on to something. If there is a tornado up there it will be embedded in that messy line. I think the EPA / South Jersey area will cash in like they always do. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 20, 2019 Share Posted June 20, 2019 up to 77 now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted June 20, 2019 Share Posted June 20, 2019 3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: up to 77 now Yep 77/72 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 20, 2019 Share Posted June 20, 2019 progress Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted June 20, 2019 Share Posted June 20, 2019 2 minutes ago, forkyfork said: progress Yeah sun is out here burning through the clouds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bikerman262 Posted June 20, 2019 Share Posted June 20, 2019 Sun’s out on the upper east side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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