weatherwiz Posted May 27, 2019 Share Posted May 27, 2019 Depending on how the airmass recovers after morning clouds and precipitation across southern NY and PA Tuesday afternoon and early evening could be fairly active in terms of t'storms; including strong-to-severe t'storms with all hazards at play (isolated tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds). While we will not warm sector here in New England, forecast models show some steep lapse rates moving overhead during the late afternoon and evening and this will promote the advection of some rather decent elevated CAPE (noted by MUCAPES perhaps approaching 1000-1500 J/KG). Very strong dynamics will be present as well. We will have to watch for any convection which develops out west to spill into portions of southern New England, and while the convection will become elevated, the degree of dynamics and elevated will yield the threat for hail with this activity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 27, 2019 Author Share Posted May 27, 2019 Tomorrow could become quite interesting in PA. If the airmass can recover after morning/early afternoon showers there is room for moderate instability along with very strong wind shear. With a stationary front over the area, if convection forms in the afternoon it is like to ride along the boundary and will have a ton of wind shear to work with and instability to tap into. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 27, 2019 Author Share Posted May 27, 2019 Could be some really nasty storms moving through western (and more specifically SW) CT during the evening. MUCAPE values forecasted to be perhaps over 1500 J/KG...that with the shear in place is quite significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 27, 2019 Share Posted May 27, 2019 Thursday looks like a big severe day SNE . Euro is sick with potential. There’s zero threat until then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 27, 2019 Author Share Posted May 27, 2019 How is Thursday sick with potential? b/c of a big red blob? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 27, 2019 Share Posted May 27, 2019 Warm front moving up into SNH in afternoon with cold front following . Tomorrow is 52 and light rain lol. No one cares about PA . We don’t live there 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 27, 2019 Author Share Posted May 27, 2019 7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Warm front moving up into SNH in afternoon with cold front following . Tomorrow is 52 and light rain lol. No one cares about PA . We don’t live there There is a surge of elevated instability moving overhead tomorrow evening. Much of CT has a solid chance at seeing t'storms and if the instability is strong enough hail is possible...including severe hail. Thursday doesn't have a severe look really...well not big severe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted May 28, 2019 Share Posted May 28, 2019 13 hours ago, weatherwiz said: There is a surge of elevated instability moving overhead tomorrow evening. Much of CT has a solid chance at seeing t'storms and if the instability is strong enough hail is possible...including severe hail. Thursday doesn't have a severe look really...well not big severe Any latest thoughts Wiz? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 28, 2019 Author Share Posted May 28, 2019 1 minute ago, Cyclone-68 said: Any latest thoughts Wiz? Given the satellite presentation I think we'll see widespread convective development across extreme southern NY and PA and this activity will work into western MA and CT during the evening. This activity will become elevated so there is no tornado threat, but hail and gusty winds will be possible. I think it could be quite active with convection down in CT...probably not much in MA outside of western MA 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 28, 2019 Author Share Posted May 28, 2019 That is quite the environment setting up over PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 28, 2019 Author Share Posted May 28, 2019 Tornado Watch a comin' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 28, 2019 Share Posted May 28, 2019 You would almost think they factored weather into this too. The Maritimes save us from damage once again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted May 28, 2019 Share Posted May 28, 2019 Think we can sneak into the warm sector down here? Warm front seems to be making progress, but a long way to go. Decent clearing out in PA. Could be a siggy event out there for someone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted May 28, 2019 Share Posted May 28, 2019 Stay safe Tornado watch out, should be a very destructive day and perhaps night there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 28, 2019 Author Share Posted May 28, 2019 15 minutes ago, Hoth said: Think we can sneak into the warm sector down here? Warm front seems to be making progress, but a long way to go. Decent clearing out in PA. Could be a siggy event out there for someone. It is actually possible the warm front sneaks into extreme southwest part of Fairfield County. In fact, looking over mesoanalysis and latest models the tornado potential may extend into Fairfield county if that is the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 28, 2019 Author Share Posted May 28, 2019 These PA cells are nasty looking. Given the ingredients and increasingly favorable conditions I think we see several TOR's out there today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 28, 2019 Author Share Posted May 28, 2019 Nasty TDS in NE PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 28, 2019 Share Posted May 28, 2019 Nothing doing in SNE later on. Too stable AWT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 28, 2019 Author Share Posted May 28, 2019 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Nothing doing in SNE later on. Too stable AWT Yes stable at the sfc. The convective potential for us is tied into elevated instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted May 28, 2019 Share Posted May 28, 2019 It may not even rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 28, 2019 Author Share Posted May 28, 2019 If this straddles the warm front this could be trouble Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 28, 2019 Author Share Posted May 28, 2019 Yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted May 28, 2019 Share Posted May 28, 2019 Good call wiz apparently large and dangerous tornado on the ground in NE PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 29, 2019 Author Share Posted May 29, 2019 Convection moving through western CT. Decent storm around Danbury Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted May 29, 2019 Share Posted May 29, 2019 Nice call Wiz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted May 29, 2019 Share Posted May 29, 2019 Few rumbles, but nothing to blow my skirt up yet. Impressive event down towards PA/NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ct_yankee Posted May 29, 2019 Share Posted May 29, 2019 Not bad, constant lightning in the sky... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 29, 2019 Author Share Posted May 29, 2019 I edited to include today. One again should see some rain and t'storms work across portions of the state later this afternoon and evening. Even a low risk for a strong-to-severe t'storm across Fairfield County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 29, 2019 Author Share Posted May 29, 2019 Becoming a bit concerned for NE PA to NYC...swath of widespread (perhaps significant) wind damage, large hail, and a few tornadoes can't be ruled out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 29, 2019 Author Share Posted May 29, 2019 may as well include tomorrow in here too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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