janetjanet998 Posted May 27, 2019 Share Posted May 27, 2019 OK lets have a do over tomorrow from Friday similar set up over similar area ...active WF (maybe who knows after what has happened so far) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 27, 2019 Share Posted May 27, 2019 Tomorrow is not necessarily a higher end tornado threat day, but definitely warrants some concern especially for anything riding near the boundary. Currently think the better threat will be south (maybe around Kankakee southward) but will have to see how the morning plays out. A lot of people will be outdoors tomorrow so hopefully they are watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 27, 2019 Share Posted May 27, 2019 2 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said: OK lets have a do over tomorrow from Friday similar set up over similar area ...active WF (maybe who knows after what has happened so far) Yeah, it does look vaguely familiar to say the least lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 27, 2019 Share Posted May 27, 2019 00z HRRR is fairly concerning for Chicagoland, especially southern parts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pen_artist Posted May 27, 2019 Share Posted May 27, 2019 Was about to say the same thing. UH streaks look concerning Just now, Hoosier said: 00z HRRR is fairly concerning for Chicagoland, especially southern parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 27, 2019 Share Posted May 27, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 27, 2019 Author Share Posted May 27, 2019 46 minutes ago, Hoosier said: 00z HRRR is fairly concerning for Chicagoland, especially southern parts. 24 hours form now: That MCS not handled well by the modes really killed off that potential,,, blah blah blah,,, etc etc etc ....I'm not going to look at any more data or radar until tomorrow afternoon and only under one condition: If or when I see Towering CU in an atmosphere that hasn't been disrupted by something....clouds...sinking air....or whatever It's 1989 and I only got my eyes and NOAA weather radio ...... it's more suspenseful that way 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 27, 2019 Share Posted May 27, 2019 12 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said: 24 hours form now: That MCS not handled well by the modes really killed off that potential,,, blah blah blah,,, etc etc etc ....I'm not going to look at any more data or radar until tomorrow afternoon and only under one condition: If or when I see Towering CU in an atmosphere that hasn't been disrupted by something....clouds...sinking air....or whatever It's 1989 and I only got my eyes and NOAA weather radio ...... it's more suspenseful that way I'll say this... capping looks like less of an issue than Friday. Something could go wrong of course but I really do expect the frontal zone to light up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted May 27, 2019 Share Posted May 27, 2019 LOT touching on the tornado threat with an evening update 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted May 27, 2019 Share Posted May 27, 2019 I expect to be called into work tomorrow. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 27, 2019 Share Posted May 27, 2019 18 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: I expect to be called into work tomorrow. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Evening runs looking a bit ominous especially near I-88 southward. I think the flow off the lake should keep much of Cook and especially Lake IL with a lower tor threat. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted May 27, 2019 Share Posted May 27, 2019 2 hours ago, Hoosier said: I'll say this... capping looks like less of an issue than Friday. Something could go wrong of course but I really do expect the frontal zone to light up. The cap Friday was brutal. Probably as close to a cap bust as you can come while not actually busting, even though many did, especially in IL. If tomorrow isn't disrupted I'll probably be around Galesburg somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nflow6 Posted May 27, 2019 Share Posted May 27, 2019 3 hours ago, janetjanet998 said: 24 hours form now: That MCS not handled well by the modes really killed off that potential,,, blah blah blah,,, etc etc etc ....I'm not going to look at any more data or radar until tomorrow afternoon and only under one condition: If or when I see Towering CU in an atmosphere that hasn't been disrupted by something....clouds...sinking air....or whatever It's 1989 and I only got my eyes and NOAA weather radio ...... it's more suspenseful that way Love this post. You know we looked up at the sky back then! Love those days. Looks like some potential next few days, got to find those decaying outflow boundaries or WF's to focus lift and near sfc vorticity. Definitely a Now casting kind of spring. These MCS trains sort of remind me of 93, of course they extended well into July that year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 27, 2019 Share Posted May 27, 2019 Well, we have an ENH and a 10% tornado area on the new day 1 outlook. Gonna split this period off into a new thread in a min... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 27, 2019 Share Posted May 27, 2019 Quote DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1248 AM CDT MON MAY 27 2019 VALID 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN MICHIGAN AND NORTHWEST OHIO...AS WELL AS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING AND NORTHEAST COLORADO THROUGH MUCH OF WESTERN INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA... ..SUMMARY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, INCLUDING A RISK FOR TORNADOES, SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, ARE EXPECTED IN A CORRIDOR ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE CHEYENNE RIDGE OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, AND PERHAPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS. ..SYNOPSIS MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOW, NOW DIGGING INTO THE BASE OF LARGER-SCALE TROUGHING ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE WEST, WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. AFTER REACHING THE LOWER COLORADO VALLEY BY 12Z THIS MORNING, IT APPEARS LIKELY TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE COLORADO ROCKIES LATER TODAY, THROUGH TONIGHT. AS IT DOES, A BELT OF 60-70+ KT CYCLONIC 500 MB FLOW IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE AROUND ITS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERY, ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY 12Z TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY THE CONTINUED ADVECTION OF WARM ELEVATED MIXED-LAYER AIR NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION, IN THE WAKE OF AN INITIAL PERTURBATION EMANATING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE LEAD IMPULSE, IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A PERSISTENT, PROMINENT SUBTROPICAL HIGH (CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO), NORTHEAST OF THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY, THEN EASTWARD AND SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY LATE TONIGHT. ..SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES THAT THE LEAD IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BELT OF SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY, 40-50+ KT FLOW IN THE 850-500 MB LAYER, ENHANCING VERTICAL SHEAR AND FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG A STRENGTHENING WARM FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN IOWA THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS APPEARS LIKELY TO COINCIDE WITH THE NORTHWARD RETURN OF SEASONABLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIR ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT, WHICH IS FORECAST TO CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE TO LARGE MIXED-LAYER CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 2000-3000 J/KG. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES, REMNANTS OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS MAY RE-INTENSIFY ACROSS EASTERN IOWA, WITH NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE WARM FRONT INTO ILLINOIS. THE EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF ANOTHER UPSCALE GROWING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM SEEMS PROBABLE, BUT THERE MAY BE A PERIOD WITH SUSTAINED DISCRETE STORM DEVELOPMENT, INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. EITHER MODE MAY SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES, IN THE PRESENCE OF LARGE CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ALONG THE FRONT. DISCRETE ACTIVITY WOULD SEEM TO POSE A MORE SUBSTANTIVE RISK FOR A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO. OTHERWISE, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS PROBABLY WILL TEND TO BECOME THE MORE PROMINENT RISK, AS A COLD POOL CONSOLIDATES AND STRENGTHENS WITH UPSCALE GROWING CONVECTION. THIS IS EXPECTED TO TEND TO PROPAGATE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE, ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO PARTS OF THE MID/UPPER OHIO VALLEY BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted May 27, 2019 Share Posted May 27, 2019 Hope this holds. Compared to the last couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 27, 2019 Share Posted May 27, 2019 Just using the Kankakee forecast sounding as one example to point something out... It's not one of those days with obnoxiously strong flow through the column, but it's certainly sufficient along with the nice CAPE. This is a nicely sheared forecast sounding with good turning with height all the way into the mid levels. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 27, 2019 Share Posted May 27, 2019 Will likely be out tomorrow for the first chase of the season. The evolution of the AM convection will likely have something to say about where things set up later in the day, but I have a feeling we'll end up out in the La Salle-Pontiac-Kankakee area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted May 27, 2019 Share Posted May 27, 2019 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: Just using the Kankakee forecast sounding as one example to point something out... It's not one of those days with obnoxiously strong flow through the column, but it's certainly sufficient along with the nice CAPE. This is a nicely sheared forecast sounding with good turning with height all the way into the mid levels. It just takes one discrete cell to take advantage of that and we will have a big one. Likely will chase locally tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 27, 2019 Share Posted May 27, 2019 5 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Just using the Kankakee forecast sounding as one example to point something out... It's not one of those days with obnoxiously strong flow through the column, but it's certainly sufficient along with the nice CAPE. This is a nicely sheared forecast sounding with good turning with height all the way into the mid levels. Fat low-level cape and very low LCLs there. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 27, 2019 Share Posted May 27, 2019 7 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Fat low-level cape and very low LCLs there. There's a nice signal in the CAMs for a robust supercell or two. Wouldn't be surprised to get something EF2+ as the discussion hinted at, but I think they are a bit too generous with the tornado probs on the northern end. Your target area looks pretty good at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted May 27, 2019 Share Posted May 27, 2019 Note the extremely favorable 200+ 0-3km CAPE on many forecast soundings... one of the single biggest things I think this setup has going for it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted May 27, 2019 Share Posted May 27, 2019 Full sun to start the day near IKK. Let’s go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted May 27, 2019 Share Posted May 27, 2019 Buckle up, today could be interesting 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eureka22 Posted May 27, 2019 Share Posted May 27, 2019 ILX and DVN doing midday soundings per SPC request. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted May 27, 2019 Share Posted May 27, 2019 10% hatched for northern up tornado probs. Been awhile since we have seen that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted May 27, 2019 Share Posted May 27, 2019 Have to see how the activity near the river beats up the atmosphere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted May 27, 2019 Share Posted May 27, 2019 22 minutes ago, RyanDe680 said: Have to see how the activity near the river beats up the atmosphere As long as a huge MCS doesn’t blaze through, it should leave plenty of nice boundaries for intensification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted May 27, 2019 Share Posted May 27, 2019 31 minutes ago, RyanDe680 said: Have to see how the activity near the river beats up the atmosphere My bigger concern is the warm front getting hung up way south (as we have seen 1,000,000 times) and LOT ending up with boring rain and ruining a good local chase day. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted May 27, 2019 Share Posted May 27, 2019 It's still early and this line is weakening and flying NNE. Should be plenty of time for the WF to move north with destabilization in its wake, provided nothing else blows up for a while. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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