June 2019 temperature forecast contest

[Roger Smith]

As always, predict the anomalies (F deg) relative to 1981-2010 normal values for

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

(deadline 06z June 1st). 

[Tom]

DCA: +1.5

NYC: +1.3

BOS: +1.0

ORD: +1.8

ATL: +1.9

IAH: +1.0

DEN: +0.8

PHX: +0.5 

SEA: +0.5

[tplbge]

DCA: +0.7

NYC: +0.5

BOS: -0.6

ORD: +1.6

ATL: +1.4

IAH: +0.3

DEN: -0.4

PHX: -0.3

SEA: -0.7

[donsutherland1]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

0.5      0.5     0.2        0.5     1.0     0.6       -0.3     0.7    -0.2 

[RodneyS]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

1.6     -0.1     0.4      -2.2     1.8     1.1      -0.9    -1.3    0.9 

[wxdude64]

DCA:  -0.1

NYC:  -0.2

BOS:  -0.4

ORD:  -1.3

ATL:  +1.4

IAH:  +0.9

DEN:  -1.6

PHX:  +0.6

SEA:  +2.1

[wxallannj]

DCA: +1.9

NYC:  +1.7

BOS:  +1.2

ORD:  +0.6

ATL:  +2.3

IAH:  +0.3

DEN:  -2.2

PHX:  +1.0

SEA:  +1.4

[Scotty Lightning]

I need an email reminder or something in the future....

 

 

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

1.0    1.0       0.5        0.5    1.0     1.0         0.0      1.0      0.0 

[hudsonvalley21]

DCA: +0.2

NYC: +0.3

BOS: -0.1

ORD: +0.8

ATL: +0.8

IAH: +0.4

DEN: +0.2

PHX: -0.2

SEA: +0.2

[Roger Smith]

1 hour ago, Scotty Lightning said:

I need an email reminder or something in the future....

 

 

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

1.0    1.0       0.5        0.5    1.0     1.0         0.0      1.0      0.0 

It's all good, you are not late (deadline 06z) ...

My pathetic attempt follows ...

+1.5 _ 0.0 _ -1.5 __ --0.8 _ +2.5 _ +2.0 ___ --2.0 _ +1.5 _ +0.7

Good luck and welcome to tplbge. 

[bkviking]

Reminder goes into iPhone right after I do this. 

 

DCA:  +0.7

NYC:  +1.0

BOS:  +1.0

ORD:  +0.6

 ATL:  +1.0

IAH:  +1.0

DEN:  +0.8

 PHX:  +0.8

 SEA:  +1.6

[Roger Smith]

Table of forecasts for June, 2019

 

FORECASTER ____________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 

wxallannj _______________+1.9 _+1.7 _+1.2 __+0.6 _+2.3 _+0.3 ___--2.2 _+1.0 _+1.4

RodneyS ________________+1.6 _--0.1 _+0.4 __--2.2 _+1.8 _+1.1 ___--0.9 _--1.3 _+0.9

Tom ____________________+1.5 _+1.3 _+1.0 __+1.8 _+1.9 _+1.0 ___+0.8 _+0.5 _+0.5

Roger Smith ______________+1.5 __0.0 _--1.5 __--0.8 _+2.5 _+2.0 ___--2.0 _+1.5 _+0.7 

Scotty Lightning ___________+1.0 _+1.0 _+0.5 __+0.5 _+1.0 _+1.0 ____0.0 _+1.0 __0.0 

____ Consensus __________ +0.9 _+0.5 _+0.3 __+0.6 _+1.2 _+1.0 ___--0.3 _+0.7 _+0.6

BKViking ___ (-2%) ________+0.7 _+1.0 _+1.0 __+0.6 _+1.0 _+1.0 ___+0.8 _+0.8 _+1.6

tplbge __________________ +0.7 _+0.5 _--0.6 __+1.6 _+1.4 _+0.3 ___--0.4 _--0.3 _--0.7

DonSutherland1 __________ +0.5 _+0.5 _+0.2 __+0.5 _+1.0 _+0.6 ___--0.3 _+0.7 _--0.2

hudsonvalley21 ___________+0.2 _+0.3 _--0.1 __+0.8 _+0.8 _+0.4 ___+0.2 _--0.2 _+0.2

____ Normal ______________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __0.0 ____0.0 __0.0 __0.0 _____0.0 __0.0 __0.0

wxdude64 _______________ --0.1 _--0.2 _--0.4 __--1.3 _+1.4 _+0.9 ___--1.6 _+0.6 _+2.1

_________________________________________________________________

warmest and coldest forecasts are color coded ... normal is below all forecasts for ATL and IAH.

With ten forecasts, the consensus is the mean of fifth and sixth ranked (rounded upwards). 

[Roger Smith]

After one week ... 

_______________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

8th _______ (7d) ________ +2.1 _+2.0 _+1.5 __ +0.1 _+2.6 _+2.1 ___+1.7 _--0.2 _+1.6

8th _______(p14d) _______+0.7 _+0.7 _+0.7 __ --0.2 _+0.3 _+2.5 ___--0.6 _+2.0 _+2.0

8th _______(p24d) _______+0.2 __0.0 _--0.5 __ --0.8 _--1.0 _+2.0 ___+0.5 _+2.0 _+2.0

__________________________________________________________

8th _ the story this coming week is a gradual build up of heat in the west, PHX has excessive heat warnings posted for mid-week. Rather cool for mid-June in the east and north central states. These trends seem likely to continue for most of the outlook period but anomalies in the east will remain fairly close to normal. 

Note: The 2018-19 snowfall contest is probably done with no snow chances in the DEN forecast or on any maps out to 384h, so you can find the latest updated table in the March thread; RodneyS is the winner. 

[Roger Smith]

Anomaly tracker updates and forecasts ... 

_______________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 8th ______ (7d) ________ +2.1 _+2.0 _+1.5 __ +0.1 _+2.6 _+2.1 ___+1.7 _--0.2 _+1.6

15th ______ (14d) _______--0.5 _--0.7 _+0.6 __ --0.9 _--0.1 _+1.2 ___--0.7 _+1.3 _+4.6

22nd ______ (21d) _______+0.6 _--1.0 _+0.3 __ --3.2 _+0.3 _+1.2 ___--2.0 _+0.8 _+3.6

29th _______(28d) ______ +0.9 __ 0.0 _+0.4 __ --1.7 _+0.4 _+0.6 ___--2.4 _--0.1 _+2.6

 

 8th ______(p14d) _______+0.7 _+0.7 _+0.7 __ --0.2 _+0.3 _+2.5 ___--0.6 _+2.0 _+2.0

15th ______(p21d) ________0.0 __0.0 _+1.0 __ --1.3 _--0.4 _+1.5 ___--0.8 _+0.9 _+3.0

22nd ______(p28d) ______ +1.2 _--0.5 _+0.7 __ --1.5 _+0.5 _+1.5 ___--1.3 _+0.5 _+2.2

 

 8th ______(p24d) _______+0.2 __0.0 _--0.5 __ --0.8 _--1.0 _+2.0 ___+0.5 _+2.0 _+2.0

15th ______(p30d) _______+0.5 __0.0 _+0.5 __ --0.6 _--0.5 _+0.5 ___--1.0 _+1.0 _+2.0

22nd ______(p30d) ______ +1.0 _--0.5 _+0.5 __ --1.4 _+0.5 _+1.5 ___--1.0 _+1.0 _+2.0

29th ______(p30d) ______ +1.0 _--0.5 _+0.5 __ --1.4 _+0.5 _+0.5 ___--1.5 _+0.5 _+2.5

 

1st July __ final anoms ___ +1.2 _+0.2 _+0.5__ --1.2 _+0.4 _+0.3 ___--1.8 _+0.3 _+2.7

__________________________________________________________

8th _ the story this coming week is a gradual build up of heat in the west, PHX has excessive heat warnings posted for mid-week. Rather cool for mid-June in the east and north central states. These trends seem likely to continue for most of the outlook period but anomalies in the east will remain fairly close to normal. 

15th _ The past week NWS forecasts appear to have been quite accurate with an average error of about 0.9 deg. ... as expected the west had a heat wave, PHX has already hit 112 and SEA 95 towards the seasonal max contest. I don't think there are any other contenders yet. This coming week looks relatively bland almost everywhere while staying rather hot in the Pac NW. The portion of the month derived from the GFS 8 to 16 day charts also looked quite close to average for late June with faint signs of a heat wave towards the very end of the guidance in the east, but probably a bit below average for most of the period. 

22nd _ The past week had reasonably good forecasts, the average error was 0.8 deg (compare blue text lines). The coming week will be generally a bit warmer than normal except in the Pacific northwest, and trends for 29th-30th appear similar.

29th _ The past week was well predicted, the average error was about 0.5 deg. The provisionals have been retained for the first five locations and changed slightly for the last four. Scoring will be adjusted and annual totals added soon.

_______________________________

Note: The 2018-19 snowfall contest is probably done with no snow chances in the DEN forecast or on any maps out to 384h, so you can find the latest updated table in the March thread; RodneyS is the winner. 

[Roger Smith]

Final scoring for July 2019 

Scoring is based on final anomalies shown in the previous post. 

High scores in bold type. Warmest forecasts in red, coldest in blue. Late penalties (BKV) are ** for 2 point and * for 1 point deductions.

 

FORECASTER ____________DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__c/e___ DEN_PHX_SEA__west ___ TOTAL (all nine)

 

wxdude64 _______________74 _ 92 _ 82 __ 248 __ 98 _ 80 _ 88 __ 266 __514 __ 96_ 94 _ 88__ 278_____ 792

____ Consensus __________ 94 _ 94 _ 96 __ 284 __ 64 _ 84 _ 86 __ 234 __ 518 __ 70 _ 92 _ 58 __ 220 _____738

RodneyS ________________92 _ 94 _ 98 __ 284 __ 80 _ 72 _ 84__ 236 __ 520 __ 82 _ 68 _ 64 __ 214 _____ 734

____ Normal _____________ 76 _ 96 _ 90 __ 262 __ 76 _ 92 _ 94 __ 262 __524 __ 64 _ 94 _ 46 __ 204 _____ 728

DonSutherland1 __________ 86 _ 94 _ 94 __ 274 __ 66 _ 88 _ 94 __ 248 __ 522 __ 70 _ 92 _ 42 __ 204 _____726

wxallannj _______________ 86 _ 70 _ 86 __ 242 __ 64 _ 62 _100__ 226 __ 468 __ 92 _ 86 _ 74 __ 252 _____ 720

Scotty Lightning __________ 96_ 84 _100__ 280 __ 66 _ 88 _ 86 __ 240 __ 520 __ 64 _ 86 _ 46 __ 196 _____ 716 

hudsonvalley21 ___________80 _ 98 _ 88 __ 266 __ 60 _ 92 _ 98__ 250 __ 516 __ 60 _ 90 _ 50 __ 200 _____ 716

BKViking ___ (-2%) _______ 88**82**88**_ 258 __ 63*_86**84**__233 __491 __ 47*_88**76**_ 211 _____ 702

Roger Smith _____________ 94 _ 96 _ 60 __ 250 __ 92 _ 58 _ 66 __ 216 __ 466 __ 96 _ 76 _ 60 __ 232 _____ 698 

tplbge __________________ 90 _ 94 _ 78 __ 262 __ 46 _ 80 _100__ 226 __ 488 __ 72 _ 88 _ 32 __ 192 _____ 680

Tom ___________________ 94 _ 78 _ 90 __ 262 __ 40 _ 70 _ 86 __ 196 __ 458 __ 48 _ 96 _ 56 __ 200 _____ 658

_________________________________________________________________

 

Extreme forecasts for June 2019

Five locations qualify ...

ORD (-1.2) _ wxdude (--1.3) has high score with second coldest forecast, takes a win, RodneyS (-2.2) would take a loss (changes to a win if -1.8 or colder).

ATL (+0.4) _ hudsonvalley (+0.8) has high score and wins for ATL at any outcome colder than +0.9 ... Normal has a loss here (shares win if outcome +0.4 or lower).

IAH (+0.3) _ wxallannj and tplbge  share a win.

DEN (-1.8) _ Wxdude64 (-1.6) and Roger Smith (-2.0) share a win with high scores, wxallannj takes a loss (-2.2) with coldest forecast.

SEA (+2.7) _ wxdude64 (+2.1) has high score and wins for SEA.

___________________________________________________________________

 

 

[Roger Smith]

<<<<< ===== ----- ----- ----- ----- Annual Contest Scoring Jan-June 2019 ----- ----- ----- ----- ===== >>>>>

 

A new look for the annual table this year, will continue with the all nine format of monthly scoring. Best score tallies will be handled in a separate table. From now to end of 2019, best scores will be tabulated for the eleven regular participants and this will continue with any new or temporary additions getting best scores in addition to those. 

Highest cumulative scores are shown in red in this table (for nine locations) or bold for subtotals. 

 

FORECASTER _____________DCA_NYC_BOS __east__ ORD_ATL_IAH__cent __ c/e ___ DEN_PHX_SEA __west___all 9 TOTAL

 

RodneyS ________________ 377 _492 _478__1347 __402 _402 _506__1310__2657__437 _402 _352 __1191___3848

DonSutherland.1 __________367 _518 _414 __1299 __352 _364 _500 __1216 __ 2515 __ 389 _450_354__1193___3708

 

___ Consensus ___________ 419_526_456 __1401__378 _358 _468 __1204 __ 2605 __ 349 _382 _306 __1037 ___3642

 

wxdude64 _______________395 _495 _433 __1323 __443_318 _453 __1214 __ 2537 __ 380 _375 _301 __1056____3593

wxallannj ________________402 _436 _458 __1296 __316 _396 _476 __1188 __2484 __ 318 _380 _300 __ 998 ____3482

hudsonvalley21 ___________357 _530 _464__1351 __334 _384 _466 __1184 __2535 __ 251 _390 _294 __ 935 ____3470

Roger Smith _____________ 412 _456 _408 __1276 __314 _302 _422 __1038 __2314 __ 427 _322 _318 __1067 ____3381

BKViking ________________ 415 _512 _446 __1373__348_314 _427 __1089 __2462 __ 278 _328 _287 __ 893 ____3355

Scotty Lightning ___________371 _476 _468 __1315 __336 _360 _452 __1148 __2463 __ 210 _322 _260 __ 792 ____3255

Tom ____________________327 _470 _382 __1179 __ 410 _246 _468 __1124 __2303 __257 _368 _284 __ 909 ____3212

___ Normal ______________ 288 _508 _430 __1226 __374 _258 _470 __1102 __2328 __ 229 _417 _237__ 883 ____3207

Stebo (4/6) ______________ 283 _327 _310 __ 920 __242 _219 _275 __ 736 __1656 __ 227 _217 _125 __ 569 ____2225

RJay (4/6) _______________ 162 _246 _216 __ 624 __256 _185 _288 __ 729 __1353 __ 263 _279 _188 __ 730 ____2083

tplbge (1/6) ______________  90 __ 94 _ 78 __ 262 __ 46 __ 80 _100 __ 226 ___ 492 ___ 72 _ 88 __32 __ 192 _____684

_______________________________________________________________________

 

Best scores in each category 

_ (nine locations, three regional subtotals, and central-eastern or "original six" subtotal (c/e) as well as all nine).

_ These are best scores in each monthly contest, best total scores are highlighted in the table above in red. Order for best scores will be based on rank in table above.

 

FORECASTER __________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__c/e__DEN_PHX_SEA__west___all nine

 

RodneyS _______________ 1 ___1 ___1 ___ 3 ___ 3 ___1 ___1 ___ 3___ 2 ___ 2 ___1 ___0 ___ 2 ____ 2 _ APR,MAY

DonSutherland.1 _________0 ___1 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___0 ___1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___1 ___3 ___ 1 ____ 0

___Consensus ___________1 ___0 ___1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0

wxdude64 ______________ 1 ___0 ___0 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___0 ___0 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___1 ___2 ___ 1 ____ 2 __ MAR, JUN

wxallannj _______________0 ___1 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___1 ___1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___1 ___ 0 ____ 0

hudsonvalley21 __________0 ___2 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___1 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___0 ___0 ___ 1 ____ 1 __ JAN

Roger Smith ____________ 3 ___0 ___0 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___2 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 2 ___1 ___0 ___ 1 ____ 0

BKViking _______________ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0

Scotty Lighning __________1 ___0 ___2 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___0 ___1 ___ 0 ____ 0

Tom ___________________0 ___1 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___0 ___1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___1 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0

___ Normal _____________ 1 ___2 ___1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___0 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0

Stebo __________________1 ___0 ___1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 1 ___ FEB

RJay ___________________0 ___0 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___1 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0

 

__________________________________________________________________________________

 

Extreme forecasts  

 

STANDINGS to date in 2019

RodneyS ____________ 9-4

Roger Smith _________ 9-3

DonSutherland1 ______ 7-0

Scotty Lightning ______ 3-0

Normal __________ 3-1

Stebo ______________ 3-1

wxallannj ____________3-2

wxdude64 ___________ 3-0

hudsonvalley21 _______2-0

RJay ________________1-0

Tom ________________1-1

tplbge ______________ 1-0

 

______________________________________________________________________________