Baroclinic Zone Posted June 27, 2019 Share Posted June 27, 2019 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Saturday and even Sunday look decent for convection. The guidance is all over WRT timing, but it looks favorable. How's it looking up North? I have a wedding to go to at Sunday River on Saturday. Found a cool AirBnB to stay at in Bethel off of Flat Rd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 27, 2019 Share Posted June 27, 2019 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: How's it looking up North? I have a wedding to go to at Sunday River on Saturday. Found a cool AirBnB to stay at in Bethel off of Flat Rd. I'd say showers are a good bet at some point. I'm not sure it will be all that nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted June 27, 2019 Share Posted June 27, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: I'd say showers are a good bet at some point. I'm not sure it will be all that nice. That's what I was figuring. I'm pretty sure its indoors though, so no worries there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 27, 2019 Share Posted June 27, 2019 17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Saturday and even Sunday look decent for convection. The guidance is all over WRT timing, but it looks favorable. yeah...hard to get a bead on details still.. the Euro looks initially like some kind of uinque freak-show explosion is about to erupt up for New England... Being the warmest BL guidance ( synoptic chart suggested ) out of all, it then careens that sharply curved 500 mb surface right down over top and across the area during the evening and overnight. Long track TOR rips from Rutland VT to ORH and ignores hills doing it. hahaha. But, what the model then exposes is that there's not much CAA behind this thing ... a suggestion that's been slowly modifying further for the Sunday/Mon backside environment. This run looks like we're still making 80 Sunday afternoon at this point, if the sun comes out. What I'm getting at is .. it's making me wonder/question the amount of actual lower tropospheric baroclinicity there really is... That could impede and or morph the convection types ... I mean talk about details ... If this thing ends up more of a fast moving ML lapse rate plume with primarily mid level... This may also be the hottest run out of the last three btw follks. Just a comment on that... there are two oddities about the D8 layout I wanted to point out. virtually the entire U.S. S of ND-ME ...everyone, is above 90 F ... That's a pretty rare feat if that verifies, getting that much geographical expanse in a homogenized/same air mass ... not withstanding theta-e I should say. But the model only lays down one isobaric interval between the Gulf Stream off the EC to St Louis MO... Then, another 500 miles west to western KA before exceeding the next. That's a distance of 2,500 K miles with a pressure variance of 8 or 12 mb. The entire region from Des M. IA to ORD-BOS and south has very little wind ... while in the 90s ...all the way down to TX-FL. That in all is a very rare set up. I'm not making a comment as to whether people want that... or what the implications may be to sensible weather and preferences and all that subjective tedium. I'm just saying that parametric layout is unusual/interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 27, 2019 Author Share Posted June 27, 2019 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I see what Wiz is saying regarding NAM. But it's all over the place. Can't really say one way or another. Agreed. I have an intern I'm working with and one thing I'm doing is having him practice technical discussions...and right now with severe wx so I'm doing an example as well and basically what you just said is how I finished my discussion lol. Why it totally can't be ruled out either is that plume of steep lapse rates which works in. Hey...sometimes are best severe wx events aren't even modeled well until like 12 hours out so maybe this will work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 27, 2019 Share Posted June 27, 2019 12 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Yep. Coastal areas will be about 15F cooler than inland areas. maybe a late high? I could see that coming in and dimming NE/E coastal zones as far west as 495 ... terminating to nothing...then, the wind comes around at 4pm and flushes the interior to the beaches for a late spike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 27, 2019 Share Posted June 27, 2019 GEFS look pretty troughy in the extended...haven't seen the EPS past d10. Maybe a few days near 90F late next week and then we mild it back down or even throw in a few normal days after that? It kinda has that feel where we're going from 3 BN days/1 AN to 3 AN days/1 BN. But nothing too extreme though...just typical summer warmth. I mean, it's normal for everyone to hit 90F in the summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted June 27, 2019 Share Posted June 27, 2019 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: maybe a late high? I could see that coming in and dimming NE/E coastal zones as far west as 495 ... terminating to nothing...then, the wind comes around at 4pm and flushes the interior to the beaches for a late spike. Can't rule that out. Need to burn off all this low level crud too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 27, 2019 Share Posted June 27, 2019 These low clouds are vaporizing quickly. Socked in for now at CON, but I can see blues to the west on my cam at home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 27, 2019 Share Posted June 27, 2019 This BD ... ( or BD like behavior on satellite..) doesn't appear to be gaining latitude.. it appears to be more of a N-->S fist... probably confines to < I-95 .. and I wonder if it makes it all the way S even because there hints that it may be terminating as it is... Interesting watching that this morning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 27, 2019 Share Posted June 27, 2019 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: This BD ... ( or BD like behavior on satellite..) doesn't appear to be gaining latitude.. it appears to be more of a N-->S fist... probably confines to < I-95 .. and I wonder if it makes it all the way S even because there hints that it may be terminating as it is... Interesting watching that this morning... Phil says it’s an undular bore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 27, 2019 Share Posted June 27, 2019 I just wanted to annotate this ... Seems I've seen this quite often. It's like 'air-hockey'...where the puck really floats on a cushion of air.. .in this case, a cold core vortex skips off the top of a ridge like it's bouncing off the the top of a balloon.. But it seems to be there is a local-scaled teleconnector behavior where there is one of these near by air masses that are hot. Many eastern CONUS warm episodes will witness one of these things denting over top across central and eastern Canada. It's like if don't see that ... we can question the veracity of the ridge its self ( I wonder ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 27, 2019 Share Posted June 27, 2019 Gonna be a warm COC afternoon as the drier air moves in and dews drop to the 50s. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 27, 2019 Share Posted June 27, 2019 For that matter.. all BDs are undular in nature when gets right down to it... There's really a blurred distinction at best clarity between undular phenomenon and DB acceleration under an preexisting environmental static atmosphere. Both are doing the precisely the same thing mechanically... If we want to distinguish them by source ..perhaps depth in the atmosphere... meh, maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 27, 2019 Share Posted June 27, 2019 49 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: How's it looking up North? I have a wedding to go to at Sunday River on Saturday. Found a cool AirBnB to stay at in Bethel off of Flat Rd. Nice man, that area is a top notch summer area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted June 27, 2019 Share Posted June 27, 2019 7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Gonna be a warm COC afternoon as the drier air moves in and dews drop to the 50s. Good. This fog needs to disperse. My whole house is damp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted June 27, 2019 Share Posted June 27, 2019 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Nice man, that area is a top notch summer area. It's only a couple nights. Just wanted to be closer to the festivities, otherwise, we would have stayed at the house. We are heading back up next Wednesday Night to Bridgton for the long 4th weekend though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 27, 2019 Share Posted June 27, 2019 Anyone surprised JB uses the worst Tornado in Mass history as an analog. Go big or go home. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 27, 2019 Share Posted June 27, 2019 Just now, Hoth said: Good. This fog needs to disperse. My whole house is damp. No AC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 27, 2019 Share Posted June 27, 2019 40 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Can't rule that out. Need to burn off all this low level crud too. yeah.. this thing's momentum is terminating as we type. it doesn't even look like it makes Logan beyond perhaps some g-wave flag wobble... Sat even hints at westerly component helping the fog erosion from the west to perhaps impede its progress up over Essex Co. there is a some kind of low lvl g-wave arcing ahead of it though. the gradient's weak over all so ...breezes will probably flip on shore within 20 clicks of the coast anyway but, this thing appears to be in the process of exhausting momentum. we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 27, 2019 Share Posted June 27, 2019 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: It's only a couple nights. Just wanted to be closer to the festivities, otherwise, we would have stayed at the house. We are heading back up next Wednesday Night to Bridgton for the long 4th weekend though. Awesome. My nephew has rented a house for a week halfway between Misquamicut and Weekapaug on the beach. Will be spending a couple of days and a night here or there depending on the buzz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 27, 2019 Share Posted June 27, 2019 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Awesome. My nephew has rented a house for a week halfway between Misquamicut and Weekapaug on the beach. Will be spending a couple of days and a night here or there depending on the buzz. Will you stalk Taylor again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 27, 2019 Share Posted June 27, 2019 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: yeah.. this thing's momentum is terminating as we type. it doesn't even look like it makes Logan beyond perhaps some g-wave flag wobble... Sat even hints at westerly component helping the fog erosion from the west impeding its progress up over Essex Co. the gradient's weak over all so ...breezes will probably flip on shore within 20 clicks of the coast anyway but, this thing appears to be in the process of exhausting momentum. we'll see Yea I always thought what differentiates Undulation from BD is transverse gravity waves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 27, 2019 Share Posted June 27, 2019 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Will you stalk Taylor again? Taylor lives in Watch Hill, your geographic knowledge is an issue 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted June 27, 2019 Share Posted June 27, 2019 JB, Wow, I would NEVER quote him on anything, And lol Kev included Scott with him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted June 27, 2019 Share Posted June 27, 2019 1 hour ago, Baroclinic Zone said: How's it looking up North? I have a wedding to go to at Sunday River on Saturday. Found a cool AirBnB to stay at in Bethel off of Flat Rd. Bring a rain slicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 27, 2019 Share Posted June 27, 2019 I was surprised to dig into modeling dewpoints and find how pleasant this afternoon / night and most of tomorrow is. When the humidity returns so do the clouds and showers. Weekend could be a misty rain out with pockets of heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 27, 2019 Share Posted June 27, 2019 13 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: No AC? We installed and ran them in the bedrooms yesterday evening Not downstairs yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 27, 2019 Share Posted June 27, 2019 Suns out, tan time commences, garden work, play with the dogs, then we pool with tunes blasting, some Netflix under the deck umbrella, some grillin, some poolin rinse repeat. I could not wait to retire, people said you will be bored, um no. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 27, 2019 Share Posted June 27, 2019 Mm... should be 89/63 for most away from the oceanic influence... You may want to set your comfort dial plans accordingly - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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