June 2019 Discussion

[Damage In Tolland]

Heat wave this week for BDL and sweaty lower backs for everyone with 65-70 degree dews.. EPS finally caught on to the warm and humid pattern here on out with last nights run. Welcome to the party 

[kdxken]

7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Heat wave this week for BDL and sweaty lower backs for everyone with 65-70 degree dews.. EPS finally caught on to the warm and humid pattern here on out with last nights run. Welcome to the party 

Awt. Endless torch on the horizon.

[CoastalWx]

Does look AN overall. MCS Friday night?

[Typhoon Tip]

9 hours ago, Bostonseminole said:

Hmmm.. maybe read my next post.

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Didn't clear anything up  ... maybe write better on your previous attempt? 

"then it's down from there!"  

 ... sounds to everyone like you mean the rest of the summer   .. To each is own, and maybe you didn't mean to wish shit away ... but, there is a lot of that going on in this particular public engagement.  I keep reading posters say things like ' in 2 days the days get shorter and we're almost out '   .. .which is weirdly anachronistic to societal ways and means adds evidence to my hypothesis, that this group of users is concentrated abnormality period ha! ...  that's A  ... but B, when one is conditionalizing their statements with what amounts to ' phew! it's almost over' that is wishing the time away...  

But again... if folks need to null segments of their life to get past summer - do as they may ... 

 

[CoastalWx]

Heatwave?

[Bostonseminole]

Didn't clear anything up  ... maybe write better on your previous attempt? 
"then it's down from there!"  
 ... sounds to everyone like you mean the rest of the summer  
 

Ok, sure.

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[CoastalWx]

Emotions running high 

[Typhoon Tip]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Heatwave?

Yeah... I'm seeing that too - 

Not so much this week's deal ... which is probably 88 to 90.3 tedium...  And for some and not all, too. 

But the Euro/EPS sort of favor D6 - 9 for 90 ... 92 ...  

It's low confidence for me though.  For one, ..as is in the run it looks fragile. The flow has definitely morphed into the typical summer-seasonal nebular look .. with weakish gradients and fractured ridge trough identities.  While that's doing so ... the main mass of the continental heat is still tending to shunt south toward the mid Atllantic ..  So, we're getting fringed by +16C 850mb therms.

It seems the meandering wave structures in run and run-to-run probably means we could lose that signal pretty easily on the next...etc.etc. .. wouldn't take much of a perturbation 

[powderfreak]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Emotions running high 

Give summer it's due credit dammit.

[weatherwiz]

17 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah... I'm seeing that too - 

Not so much this week's deal ... which is probably 88 to 90.3 tedium...  And for some and not all, too. 

But the Euro/EPS sort of favor D6 - 9 for 90 ... 92 ...  

It's low confidence for me though.  For one, ..as is in the run it looks fragile. The flow has definitely morphed into the typical summer-seasonal nebular look .. with weakish gradients and fractured ridge trough identities.  While that's doing so ... the main mass of the continental heat is still tending to shunt south toward the mid Atllantic ..  So, we're getting fringed by +16C 850mb therms.

It seems the meandering wave structures in run and run-to-run probably means we could lose that signal pretty easily on the next...etc.etc. .. wouldn't take much of a perturbation 

Excellent summation of things really. 

I don't even know what this thread is about anymore or what the discussion even is. 

We are going to see typical summer weather now...what's that?

Areas which are favorable/known to be a few ticks warmer than surrounding areas will be around 90 (88-92...depending on factors like cloud cover, strength of mixing, maybe wind direction). Areas along the coast...they'll have their typical summer weather...a few degrees cooler than everyone b/c of..well obvious reasons. 

Higher elevation areas will be cooler...again for obvious reasons. Technically (IMO anyways) if you have higher elevation areas...above 1K getting close to 90...that's a torch airmass...when you factor in lapse rate and what 90 at 1K means for areas at like 200 or whatever feet. 

But what we can summarize is we are finally entering a more summer-like pattern 

[Typhoon Tip]

I still like that convection signaled over the weekend.. 

The general mechanical synopsis over those two days has persisted in models since posting about it two days ago.  The NNW mean deep layer flow ... with west or even west-southwest lower tropospheric winds, is overall a positive directional shear environment.  With models amplifying a S/W trough as it dives through there is speed sheer entering later Saturday... The whole of thing is like taking a more typical vectored situation and just rotating it around the dial 45 degrees to achieve the same result.  

Short version is...storm motion ends up moving more SE with any super's diving S.   

Timing is critical, duh.. usual caveats apply.  I'm not sure which day is more favored. It actually looks like 10pm to 2am late Saturday... but, the mechanical forcing may be strong enough because in addition to these shear structures there are height falls associated with the trough dive - should that occur over residual CAPE .. have to remember, ML lapse rates always over perform.  Those sensitivities could spark early action later Sat afternoon - also.. a pre ftrough but it's probably hard-ish to do that along a SW-NE axis over the ridge lines of the Greens and Whites so ... again, too many details - heh

But goes without saying at D3/4 ..these details/considerations are less clear.  I mean the trough could still speed up or slow down by 6 hours ( say )..  Or, weaken..   

[weatherwiz]

16 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I still like that convection signaled over the weekend.. 

The general mechanical synopsis over those two days has persisted in models since posting about it two days ago.  The NNW mean deep layer flow ... with west or even west-southwest lower tropospheric winds, is overall a positive directional shear environment.  With models amplifying a S/W trough as it dives through there is speed sheer entering later Saturday... The whole of thing is like taking a more typical vectored situation and just rotating it around the dial 45 degrees to achieve the same result.  

Short version is...storm motion ends up moving more SE with any super's diving S.   

Timing is critical, duh.. usual caveats apply.  I'm not sure which day is more favored. It actually looks like 10pm to 2am late Saturday... but, the mechanical forcing may be strong enough because in addition to these shear structures there are height falls associated with the trough dive - should that occur over residual CAPE .. have to remember, ML lapse rates always over perform.  Those sensitivities could spark early action later Sat afternoon - also.. a pre ftrough but it's probably hard-ish to do that along a SW-NE axis over the ridge lines of the Greens and Whites so ... again, too many details - heh

But goes without saying at D3/4 ..these details/considerations are less clear.  I mean the trough could still speed up or slow down by 6 hours ( say )..  Or, weaken..   

Really...looked more like we were dealing with predominately W to NW flow from sfc through the troposphere. 

Overall I wasn't totally impressed with the setup outside of some isolated activity but seems like we also rapidly dry out the llvls through the day Sunday

[HoarfrostHubb]

We could have a pretty much average June with regards to temps and precip (at ORH), and no significant departures on the high end.   

Right now ORH is -0.3F and -0.85”.    A few warm days and a thunderstorm could make both of those 0s.       

Big heat will be here at some point

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 hour ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

the year without a summer?

Weenies roasting by the 4th

[dendrite]

Yeah def a better bulge of ridging that euro run. We’ll see if we can get it to last into that d5 range without some rogue s/w digging through QB to frig it up. 

[Great Snow 1717]

19 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Excellent summation of things really. 

I don't even know what this thread is about anymore or what the discussion even is. 

We are going to see typical summer weather now...what's that?

Areas which are favorable/known to be a few ticks warmer than surrounding areas will be around 90 (88-92...depending on factors like cloud cover, strength of mixing, maybe wind direction). Areas along the coast...they'll have their typical summer weather...a few degrees cooler than everyone b/c of..well obvious reasons. 

Higher elevation areas will be cooler...again for obvious reasons. Technically (IMO anyways) if you have higher elevation areas...above 1K getting close to 90...that's a torch airmass...when you factor in lapse rate and what 90 at 1K means for areas at like 200 or whatever feet. 

But what we can summarize is we are finally entering a more summer-like pattern 

As usual the thread gets hijacked because of someone's desire for it to be excessively  hot with high dews every day  during the summer with no regards to the climate history of SNE. The same happens during the winter only at the opposite end of the weather spectrum. 

[Typhoon Tip]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Yeah def a better bulge of ridging that euro run. We’ll see if we can get it to last into that d5 range without some rogue s/w digging through QB to frig it up. 

bingo!  ... the surrounding total mass-field look makes that whole 'bulge' precarious ... but we'll see. 

[Typhoon Tip]

18 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Really...looked more like we were dealing with predominately W to NW flow from sfc through the troposphere. 

Overall I wasn't totally impressed with the setup outside of some isolated activity but seems like we also rapidly dry out the llvls through the day Sunday

0-3 km wind is likely 250 degrees ... trust me.  

With 6 km probably 300 or 310 and mid trop 320-340 ... 

I mean this can change between now and than but the set up is "like-able" ...  Not sure I'd throw the word "impressed" at it - haha  

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Heat wave this week for BDL and sweaty lower backs for everyone with 65-70 degree dews.. EPS finally caught on to the warm and humid pattern here on out with last nights run. Welcome to the party 

Now we know why you pimp dews so much.... You love that back view of sweaty hairy men. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

23 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

bingo!  ... the surrounding total mass-field look makes that whole 'bulge' precarious ... but we'll see. 

Agree.

[weatherwiz]

32 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

As usual the thread gets hijacked because of someone's desire for it to be excessively  hot with high dews every day  during the summer with no regards to the climate history of SNE. The same happens during the winter only at the opposite end of the weather spectrum. 

 

26 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

0-3 km wind is likely 250 degrees ... trust me.  

With 6 km probably 300 or 310 and mid trop 320-340 ... 

I mean this can change between now and than but the set up is "like-able" ...  Not sure I'd throw the word "impressed" at it - haha  

you know what I think happens...I think a pre-frontral trough (or some type of boundary) pushes through super early in the day and that results in the llvl wind shift I had mentioned along with the drier air working on. 

Certainly agree...things could change.

Actually...I think this could be a good setup out in E. MA 

[Cyclone-68]

Would their be any EML associated with this weekends storm chances? Asking as a novice 

[Ginx snewx]

My totally sunny float in the pool has been interrupted by some clouds, oops back to my regularly scheduled tan time, we clear up. 75 /66 

 

[weatherwiz]

17 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

Would their be any EML associated with this weekends storm chances? Asking as a novice 

Unfortunately that doesn't seem to be the case. 

Although...there may be a pocket of fairly decent lapse rates as it's a pretty strong cold pool

[tamarack]

Total of exactly 1.00" by 7 this morning, though nearly all came 6:30-11 last evening with a few fairly heavy bursts.  Month's total now 4.56" and my average thru 6/26 is 4.54".  Had enough early sun yesterday to reach 70 after a chilly 41, making the day 8° BM.  Guessing June finishes about 2° under my 21-year average; have not had an AN month since Sept (nor a lightning strike within 5 miles of home since August.)

heading into peak climo in 3 weeks or so

Peak climo here is more of a lengthy plateau - average daily mean rises to 65.0° on July 9 and remains 65+ thru August 9 without ever quite reaching 66.  Warmest day (at present) is July 29 at 65.94°, but that could shift a few days pending this year's temps.

[weatherwiz]

Fun for Chicago tomorrow.

NAM has upper 70's and GFS 90  

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

Fun for Chicago tomorrow.

NAM has upper 70's and GFS 90  

Everything ok bud? I know you’re starving for severe but both programs have Chi pushing 90.

[weatherwiz]

5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Everything ok bud? I know you’re starving for severe but both programs have Chi pushing 90.

I am not ok  

 

but on second thought...for today they do but not tomorrow. 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

25 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Unfortunately that doesn't seem to be the case. 

Although...there may be a pocket of fairly decent lapse rates as it's a pretty strong cold pool

Was just looking at some of the GFS' point soundings and the SB CAPEs are anomalously large for this region..   Particularly down in PA ... where it approaches the mid 4Ks ... but even up in northern Massachusetts the GFS is sporting nearly 3000 SB CAPE at 18z Saturday. 

The EML question is a good one ... because that would be nice ( for tor enthusiasts..).   But a concern for severe ... with climate-saturated CAPE and lapse rates > 7 C/KM ... hill top triggers might cause things to erupt too early ... in a lower CIN/EML lacking cap

I looked around and didn't see much EML sigs in soundings E of Iowa actually..  Course, I'm not sure the GFS is really good at that sort of thing so that...and these stability indices are all predicated on that models handling.  

[weatherwiz]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

Was just looking at some of the GFS' point soundings and the SB CAPEs are anomalously large for this region..   Particularly down in PA ... where it approaches the mid 4Ks ... but even up in northern Massachusetts the GFS is sporting nearly 3000 SB CAPE at 18z Saturday. 

The EML question is a good one ... because that would be nice ( for tor enthusiasts..).   But also, with climate-saturated CAPE and lapse rates > 7 C/KM ... hill top triggers might cause things to erupt too early ... 

I looked around and didn't see much EML sigs in sounding E of Iowa actually..  but, I'm not sure the GFS is really good at that sort of thing so that...and these stability indices are all predicated on that models handling.  

Actually yeah for Saturday there does seem to be some hints of an EML plume out across PA.

One thing I have noticed though (at least here in the Northeast) is these point-and-click soundings have been generating excessively high dewpoints which of course with lapse rates > 7 and Td's well into the 70's is going to spit out crazy CAPE.