powderfreak Posted June 22, 2019 Share Posted June 22, 2019 Outside my buddy's apartment in Winter Park, Colorado this morning. June 22nd lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 22, 2019 Share Posted June 22, 2019 32 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Be safe mowing and posting. Enjoy sitting watching tv this morning instead of getting out enjoying one of last coc ks of summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted June 22, 2019 Share Posted June 22, 2019 Thick mid layer smoke moving through SNE now. Can't tell origin, N Quebec? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 22, 2019 Share Posted June 22, 2019 Anyway, back here on planet Now ... Hey, a warm week looking more likely. Could it be, we actually succeed this time? The GFSX MOS ... despite the synoptic evolution of that particular model looking like a cool distraction whenever physics can allow it to ... has maintained warmer series of days relative to that synoptic appeal. It's funny when its machine numbers do that - look warmer(cooler) relative to its synoptics ... its like 'actions speak louder than words.' Its telling us lube up on the cool(warm) side in those instances, yet the statistics prove that under similar circumstances in the past, it must have busted - so the model kind of 'gets caught' lying. Heh. I don't know of any Euro MOS in existence ... but its synoptic evolution has now survived some four cycles back-to-back where it maintains 850 mb temperatures over +12 C for pretty much everyone in the pan-sub-forum, with the plausible exception of seagull-fecal glazed low-tide cays off Kennebunkport ME. Nick may be SOL up his way as the vestigial tendency to not establish a westerly component off the continent will still plague the NF/NS maritime regions... But for here back through the OV... provided there isn't substantive cloud contamination ... that's probably mid 80s to near 90 every day from D4 to 9. Tell you the truth, D6 threatens a very serious couple of days of SW heat releases but ... phew, duck. The pattern just gets it that close and then doesn't pull the trigger to really bulge the Chicago ridge axis in...which would probably ignite a continental conveyor out of the SW if that happened... But instead, despite the clear aggressive ( at long last ) rising NAO modeled by it, and the GEFs mean ( btw ) for that matter, the model deflates and re-establishes a NW ablation of the heat signal by late D9 ... It's close. I'd watch it... I'm not totally opposed to the notion so long as the NAO looks like this out there in time: The PNA is less correlative in JJA ... that reduction in that particular teleconnector is thought to be because the R-wave structuring around the globe becomes less orderly and also, meandering ... So statistically, a ridge in x doesn't correlate to a trough in y as frequently as it would in January...and on and so on. However, the NAO ... by virtue of both being a smaller domain space, and...close to us, might be why of the two it appears to maintain at least some usefulness during JJA N. hemisphere. Usual caveats apply... This is notwithstanding continuity ... We've seen stochastic behavior in the NAO prognostics from the GEFs mean. Also... the EPS ( thanks Steve ) was a little less emphatic with the NAO rise ...although it still had some. These curves above are also mop-ended... which means there's some disagreement with how positive the domain gets - which quite likely means 'where' is a problem too. But by and large, the mean is positive... If it finally breaks that way ... mm, okay. We heat up.. however much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted June 22, 2019 Share Posted June 22, 2019 20 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Outside my buddy's apartment in Winter Park, Colorado this morning. June 22nd lol. My brother is on I 70 right now near Vail and sent me pictures of snowcover. Trees covered too. I also see Aspen Mt got snow overnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 22, 2019 Share Posted June 22, 2019 Right on cue... when models and machines and man start the warm discussion, for very empirical reasons ..not merely speculative, too, snow finds a way into the fray. These utterly antithetical winter/snow themes ... they always happen. Not just because someone out there is snowing now - if they weren't ... we'd up on crag in the Himalayas somewhere... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 22, 2019 Share Posted June 22, 2019 23 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Right on cue... when models and machines and man start the warm discussion, for very empirical reasons ..not merely speculative, too, snow finds a way into the fray. These utterly antithetical winter/snow themes ... they always happen. Not just because someone out there is snowing now - if they weren't ... we'd up on crag in the Himalayas somewhere... I just picture you having a minor stroke at the keyboard. That snow out west is getting down to relatively low levels for the summer solstice. Had an exciting low of 48F last night and now up into the 60s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 22, 2019 Share Posted June 22, 2019 Emotional posting 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 22, 2019 Share Posted June 22, 2019 Red thread alive and well. Need sun to dry out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 22, 2019 Share Posted June 22, 2019 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Red thread alive and well. Need sun to dry out. Thanks I was wondering what that was when I mowed the upper 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 22, 2019 Share Posted June 22, 2019 1 hour ago, wxeyeNH said: Thick mid layer smoke moving through SNE now. Can't tell origin, N Quebec? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted June 22, 2019 Share Posted June 22, 2019 Rabbit ears pass CO 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 22, 2019 Share Posted June 22, 2019 Yeah... still yet another way to look at it... some have real angst issues with summer weather/climate, to the point where they have to do whatever they can to offset and escape the unmitigated horror of an 82 sunny outside - Anyway ...nice towers out there. A few even glaciating already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 22, 2019 Share Posted June 22, 2019 Tippy is triggered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 22, 2019 Share Posted June 22, 2019 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Tippy is triggered Close to a 7-paragraph psych analysis time. I mean, people post lightning videos from Oklahoma, huge hail from Nebraska, wind from Italy...hell, 18 soundings from Iowa by Wiz but nothing triggers though like posts of a widespread winter storm after the summer solstice . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted June 22, 2019 Share Posted June 22, 2019 Lot of popcorn showers dropping south up here, Surgarloaf getting a few bangers, My oldest up there golfing and has reported two TS so far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 22, 2019 Share Posted June 22, 2019 Tippy isolated fat drops as a tower pops over my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 22, 2019 Share Posted June 22, 2019 9 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Close to a 7-paragraph psych analysis time. I mean, people post lightning videos from Oklahoma, huge hail from Nebraska, wind from Italy...hell, 18 soundings from Iowa by Wiz but nothing triggers though like posts of a widespread winter storm after the summer solstice . You have any isolated patches on the mountain to post? LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted June 22, 2019 Share Posted June 22, 2019 A few rumbles and some lightning to the east of Lew with that cell going thru Lisbon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 22, 2019 Share Posted June 22, 2019 What a beast a few miles south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 22, 2019 Share Posted June 22, 2019 We Thunder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 22, 2019 Share Posted June 22, 2019 12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: You have any isolated patches on the mountain to post? LOL Lol a rotting dirty pile under an evergreen at 4kft? So as to not show my angst and inner hatred for 82F weather, I'll post some crispy Cu today... this cell coming over the ridge line from the west side led to an isolated 5-min downpour on the mountain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted June 22, 2019 Share Posted June 22, 2019 Just missed it here but it blew up over Lisbon Falls, Watching the tower build on that one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 22, 2019 Share Posted June 22, 2019 See ... NAM's convective parameterization kind of saves that models usefulness in my mind. I've noticed this in the past... particularly at < 36 hour leads ...tho this one it seemed to peg further out in time... It sees these sort of tower days pretty well... I said two days ago, tongue-in-cheek, that SPC would hash New England out when it got closer in time ... based solely on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted June 22, 2019 Share Posted June 22, 2019 22 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: What a beast a few miles south. Lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted June 22, 2019 Share Posted June 22, 2019 iso rain showers incoming, folks; heed warnings and take appropriate shelter! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted June 22, 2019 Share Posted June 22, 2019 Just came in from a couple of hours of mowing. Screen shot from webcam a little while ago. Lots of towers/anvils around. These things are booking SSE. Free visual entertainment as I mowed with my 52" zero turn. Listen to music as I went along.... all is good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 22, 2019 Share Posted June 22, 2019 8 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: Just came in from a couple of hours of mowing. Screen shot from webcam a little while ago. Lots of towers/anvils around. These things are booking SSE. Free visual entertainment as I mowed with my 52" zero turn. Listen to music as I went along.... all is good. We got the lapse rates but lack CAPE These remind me of desert SW/western plateau capillatus that start forest fire - heh... but seriously - they seem to explode more so into virga shrouded messes with only brief tendrils of rain making it all the way down. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 22, 2019 Share Posted June 22, 2019 altho I am hearing CC grumbling ... but it's these kind ... notice the abandoned anvil 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 22, 2019 Share Posted June 22, 2019 I think SE Mass has a sneaky tendency to steal scenes in plays like today... I see that all the time... we're struggling with virga CBS up here, ...someone down there pops a pea hailer with a house fire CG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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