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June 2019 Discussion


weatherwiz
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3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You notice Dryslut won’t reply directly to any of my posts, yet most of his posts he’s referring to me :lol:

Do you want me to keep telling you you're high? This spring has been cool and wet, Total opposite of what your trying to sell here, And why would i be "afraid" to answer your post? Most of them are nonsense and not worth my time.

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

It will eventually move...and I don't need the heat...but ****ing tired of clouds. Early July should have it retro a bit. 

it's true .. this plagued pattern really hasn't verified demonstratively cold...  Perhaps subjectively 'cool' and in some regards, yeah... negative ticks show up in the monthlies to date. But by and large, we've had cooler months relative to normals than the last 60 days.   

it's been about drab more than cold ... as that relates to sun and .S.A.D. haha...  but you get my drift.  You need it dry and sunny - ish ( at least) to get bike rides, outdoor runs, yard projects, soccer games...etc etc... to not be miserable ventures...

all that.  

what's interesting is there's been some all or nothing days in there.  we're on a pretty amazing lucky streak for timing good weekends in that regard.  Not much in between sensible weather ... we either get this crap today, or cerulean-cobalt blue skies at 80/44 with sun so unabated fair-skinned types may as well skip the dermatologist and opt for chemo therapy as an assumption ..   That vortex can be a mixed blessing I guess

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45 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not to rub it in buuut... na na na-na na  

There's a reason I've been saying not to buy into the heat for next week.  And it played out exactly like that too - the 'circular sander' over ~ NF came right back and ground the heat signal right out of New England right on schedule ... all over agin. 

This is an unrelenting trend folks. Rinse and repeating one, and I strongly suggest that unless the hemispheric mode switches to something new, it's one that will not go away any time soon... And by that, we could certainly be talking about the whole summer - it's happened before..  

Something like this took place in the year 2000 ... a season with surplus cool misty days ... stole every warmth.  It particularly annoying for those that are entertained by extremes because the previous winter was a complete cluster - and that's what patience rewarded? Basically 18 straight months of drawn shades.  Oh, it got warm for one week in early October as an exit insult... 

2007 and 2008 were back to back summers where we had this weakness if not L/W axis parked over 80 W; though it kept temps from getting out of control, it did set us up for daily mid level lapse rates and pulse sever chances.   I remember mid early mid July in 2008 I think it was... it was 64/62 just before sunset, after a thundery afternoon had the region into rain cooled air. Yet ... somehow there was enough instability to last a super cell that brought nickle hail along a 30 mil swath up astride I-495.. 

Point is, sometimes these set ups lock in ruin seasons.  The winter of 2012 .. same deal going the other direction.  And at times when the excitement starved enthusiasts can't really bear it, that when the models seem to know it's time to faux advertise the longing change ... Only to correct suddenly right back to the same look.   I'm not prepared to say this whole summer gets eaten and eroded by the vortex of NF ... but, if so, meh. 

Oh it'll prolly go on and get hotter 'n holy next week ... as though purposefully to smite this very veracious hot take ... Excluding the possibility that there are indeed outre forces at work, I wouldn't be shocked if not only does the heat fail next week, but we comically end up with a couple of those days at 68 instead of the 88 GFSX MOS was selling up through 00z.     

 

We are not getting >20C 850's in here with the height configuration the way it is...both at 500 and 850. Even when the models "show this" you can still see it isn't going to happen. Until the field north of us weakens or something becomes displaced...we will not see much in terms of about climo for highs. As we move into July climo starts getting near the mid 80's or so...that isn't "heat". 

Anyways...even forget the pattern over North America...check it out on a global level. Rather unusual northern hemisphere summer configuration...correct me if I'm wrong but shouldn't wavelengths be lengthening as you enter summer? Globally (across the NH) wavelengths looks to be much shorter than you would think so we're seeing like an amplified type pattern. 

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3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Do you want me to keep telling you you're high? This spring has been cool and wet, Total opposite of what your trying to sell here, And why would i be "afraid" to answer your post? Most of them are nonsense and not worth my time.

Here lies the problem. I think he needs a gummy or a cookie to zone him down some. Too many micro brewery IPA’s has lead him astray.

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7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

We are not getting >20C 850's in here with the height configuration the way it is...both at 500 and 850. Even when the models "show this" you can still see it isn't going to happen. Until the field north of us weakens or something becomes displaced...we will not see much in terms of about climo for highs. As we move into July climo starts getting near the mid 80's or so...that isn't "heat". 

Anyways...even forget the pattern over North America...check it out on a global level. Rather unusual northern hemisphere summer configuration...correct me if I'm wrong but shouldn't wavelengths be lengthening as you enter summer? Globally (across the NH) wavelengths looks to be much shorter than you would think so we're seeing like an amplified type pattern. 

mm, no actually the wave-lengths shorten in the summer.  

I realize that probably stomps a bit on your hypothesis/explanation for whatever it is that looks odd about the flow construct but, theoretically the opposite should happen. 

It ultimately has to do with torque balancing, but can be explained in numerous ways.  In the winter, the ambiet gradient is much steeper between 30N and 60 N ...that's the strengthening of the westerlies velocity that concomitantly results, as well...  Fast flow then integrating the corriolis conserves angular momentum in a "stretched" capacity ... by virtue of the c-force being constant in a fluid medium with higher wind speeds; which is why the wave lengths get longer and the R-wave configuration tends to feature fewer identifiable structures (by number) from late October to ..circa early April... 

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8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

mm, no actually the wave-lengths shorten in the summer.  

I realize that probably stomps a bit on your hypothesis/explanation for whatever it is that looks odd about the flow construct but, theoretically the opposite should happen. 

It ultimately has to do with torque balancing, but can be explained in numerous ways.  In the winter, the ambiet gradient is much steeper between 30N and 60 N ...that's the strengthening of the westerlies velocity that concomitantly results, as well...  Fast flow then integrating the corriolis conserves angular momentum in a "stretched" capacity ... by virtue of the c-force being constant in a fluid medium with higher wind speeds; which is why the wave lengths get longer and the R-wave configuration tends to feature fewer identifiable structures (by number) from late October to ..circa early April... 

makes perfect sense. I always get confused with the shortening/lengthening of wave-lengths and the corresponding season but I never thought to try and look at it the way you explained...doing it this way completely explains it. 

I would be curious to see how MT is behaving the last several weeks...there used to be a great site for this and I think it was NCDC (or one of the agencies) used too but the person retired and it is no longer maintained. I'm going to try and find but I think University of Albany has products on MT. 

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22 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

makes perfect sense. I always get confused with the shortening/lengthening of wave-lengths and the corresponding season but I never thought to try and look at it the way you explained...doing it this way completely explains it. 

I would be curious to see how MT is behaving the last several weeks...there used to be a great site for this and I think it was NCDC (or one of the agencies) used too but the person retired and it is no longer maintained. I'm going to try and find but I think University of Albany has products on MT. 

I would give serious consideration for the multi-cycle superposition of solar minima in any such research.  This is a three-pillar statistical landing ...not too dissimilar to the Maunder of lore. 

the 11, 22, ... and I think its 300 ( ? ) year curves are timed in the same bed ...starting over the last couple three years and running out to 2025 .. That orgy can give birth to blocking; it is statistically shown to be favored - it's quite possible some of this retrograde tendency between 40 and 70 N is related to that...   

 

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There's a sneaky convective signal for eastern NE on Saturday afternoon...  

It's been growing on the NAM since that time frame came into the range.  It's still beyond 30 hours in an inherently untrustworthy source buuut... suppose for a minute that real, regional LI's are down -3 and there's ample heating.  Unusual on a NNW flow -

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14 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I would give serious consideration for the multi-cycle superposition of solar minima in any such research.  This is a three-pillar statistical landing ...not too dissimilar to the Maunder of lore. 

the 11, 22, ... and I think its 300 ( ? ) year curves are timed in the same bed ...starting over the last couple three years and running out to 2025 .. That orgy can give birth to blocking; it is statistically shown to be favored - it's quite possible some of this retrograde tendency between 40 and 70 N is related to that...   

 

solar cycle influences is something I really need to explore more. I have hardly any understanding of this and am not even really sure what constitutes the difference between "low" and "high" solar activity. From what I gather it has to do with sunspot data? If so...what is the threshold between low and high? 

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

There's a sneaky convective signal for eastern NE on Saturday afternoon...  

It's been growing on the NAM since that time frame came into the range.  It's still beyond 30 hours in an inherently untrustworthy source buuut... suppose for a minute that real, regional LI's are down -3 and there's ample heating.  Unusual on a NNW flow -

I saw that. Leftover cool pool with June sun. Could be showers with a few rumbles. 

 

Also near dawn tomorrow as s/w approaches..may have convection on s coast. 

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4 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

wow.. SPC not impressed yet.. maybe next day 1 updagte

That would be a super crazy cap anyways. 

But the convective scenarios out that way are crazy, crazy difficult. could see an MCS evolve tonight and move through there in the morning (potentially with very large hail and significant winds) then another potential complex tomorrow evening. 

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it's all about triggers ... 

Although I've wondered if not fantasized before, stability factoring just gets so absurd the atmosphere spontaneously detonates in the absence of having an identifiable one.  ha.    just like booom  

But I've seen CAPEs approach 5 grand do nothing because of thin layers of CIN and zippo convergence underneath... Like -10 dt/dh over top too... A kid launching a bottle rocket should fire something off but nope -

Can you 'magine that?  Like when a California wild fire gets traced back to a couple of teen agers ...in this case, they're fuggin around with fireworks in a Kansas field and it causes a tornado blow a tunnel through KC -  

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