weatherwiz Posted June 21, 2019 Author Share Posted June 21, 2019 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: heh... I wonder if it is possible to calculate the SB CAPE prior to the detonation of Tsar Bomba, 1961, Soviet nuclear test probably would have broke the formula Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 21, 2019 Share Posted June 21, 2019 11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: There's always been a Lyme disease hot bed down there... In fact, the origin/identification of the pathogenic spectrum began there, in "LYME" Connecticut. I think it's interesting that although the disease(s) that are tick borne have been found to focus all over ( really ...), that these hot bed regions seem to concentrate it. Where other regions don't. Probably the deer and other fauna species that are part of the whole life-cycles ( of which Humans share in that cycle) have over-lapping population .. But, all of that is changing too, because species migration appears to be bring non-native species of ticks to northern regions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 21, 2019 Author Share Posted June 21, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: HRRR is fairly active tomorrow afternoon. Either way it will be a nice day just some pop-up showers and maybe a thunderstorm or two in the afternoon. good to see. I know the HRRR has been handling convective activity quite well over the central US/OV/TN Valley this week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 21, 2019 Share Posted June 21, 2019 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Looks like they need better doctors in W and C MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 21, 2019 Share Posted June 21, 2019 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: HRRR is fairly active tomorrow afternoon. Either way it will be a nice day just some pop-up showers and maybe a thunderstorm or two in the afternoon. It was never a slam dunk anyway - if anyone's chiding ...heh. I mean, it was always just a sneaky thing... We have a mlv lapse cold plume with a weak surface trough associated, pivoting through as an exit/encore performance around the back side of that Maritime trough ...so dicey and I agree, it's hit or miss. NAM's been stalwart refusing to give up on -3 LIs and warm T1 under cold 500 mb temps though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 21, 2019 Share Posted June 21, 2019 Just now, dendrite said: Looks like they need better doctors in W and C MA. Crazy how underreporting, CDC says 30k reported each year they estimate 300K is more likely 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 21, 2019 Share Posted June 21, 2019 31 hr HRRR? Yea I would wait for inside 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted June 21, 2019 Share Posted June 21, 2019 Lyme is the least of our worries with these new tick-borne diseases popping up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 21, 2019 Author Share Posted June 21, 2019 Just now, Ginx snewx said: 31 hr HRRR? Yea I would wait for inside 18 actually I think it's done quite well past the 18-hr...it's actually been a huge help Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 21, 2019 Share Posted June 21, 2019 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: Lyme is the least of our worries with these new tick-borne diseases popping up. yeah...I was more than less trying to intimate that as well.. . Seems ticks are just an overall, ...exceedingly efficient delivery system for hell-on-earth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 21, 2019 Share Posted June 21, 2019 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: Lyme is the least of our worries with these new tick-borne diseases popping up. Babesiosis is a killer. My former coworker an elderly retired teacher was given last rites until by luck a Dr reviewed her chart and started IV treatments, the next day she was sitting up in bed. Lyme is brutal however and certainly a huge worry and a brutal disease, don't downplay it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 21, 2019 Share Posted June 21, 2019 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: actually I think it's done quite well past the 18-hr...it's actually been a huge help We haven't had a thunderstorm in a month. I wouldn't know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 21, 2019 Author Share Posted June 21, 2019 Just now, Ginx snewx said: We haven't had a thunderstorm in a month. I wouldn't know it's been at least helpful out west. What I think kinda sucks is the NAM NEST. CHECK OUT THESE MCS/BOWING LINES in MO AND IL!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted June 21, 2019 Share Posted June 21, 2019 5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Babesiosis is a killer. My former coworker an elderly retired teacher was given last rites until by luck a Dr reviewed her chart and started IV treatments, the next day she was sitting up in bed. Lyme is brutal however and certainly a huge worry and a brutal disease, don't downplay it Not downplaying it at all. It's at least treatable. Powassan is not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted June 21, 2019 Share Posted June 21, 2019 3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: it's been at least helpful out west. What I think kinda sucks is the NAM NEST. CHECK OUT THESE MCS/BOWING LINES in MO AND IL!!! is it coming here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 21, 2019 Author Share Posted June 21, 2019 Just now, Bostonseminole said: is it coming here? might get some of the cirrus 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted June 21, 2019 Share Posted June 21, 2019 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: might get some of the cirrus sweet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted June 21, 2019 Share Posted June 21, 2019 34 minutes ago, dendrite said: Looks like they need better doctors in W and C MA. 33 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Crazy how underreporting, CDC says 30k reported each year they estimate 300K is more likely nah we just built the wall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 21, 2019 Share Posted June 21, 2019 This is how we like our backside CAA from anomalous exiting deep layer vortexes! 82 at most sites for a high tomorrow ...with spot towers for weather-nerdology. Then Sunday is starting to sneak up as a toasty day. The FRH grid has T1's of 25 C for Logan on a 290 wind over 10 kts, with RH numbers indicative of essentially 0 cloud. That's 84 or 85 in the 2-meter temperature ...and it wouldn't shock me if verification adds a tick or two over top. That's a damn warm day in an overall synoptic regime that 'looks' at a glance like a cool flow - This hearkens back to Brian and my mentioning last week that the flow is different. It's not as cold despite the blocking/vortex still hanging on for dear life. In fact ... despite the GFS fields, it's MOS numbers are all over climate next week. Interesting... It seems deterministic weather is more difficult than we think ... Lord have mercy if we ever do dome this bastard - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted June 21, 2019 Share Posted June 21, 2019 The drying out has begun out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 21, 2019 Share Posted June 21, 2019 82 may be tough outside of a runway or two given rather cool aloft and CU field developing, but 75-80 will be common in low spots. Maybe BDL 82 ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 21, 2019 Share Posted June 21, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: 82 may be tough outside of a runway or two given rather cool aloft and CU field developing, but 75-80 will be common in low spots. Maybe BDL 82 ish. FRH is also 23 C at t1 tomorrow over Logan ... using the NAM? risky. That said, ... it's seeing the backside thickness between 0 and 4,000 k as warmer than we may think - we'll see if it's right. That could also be contributing to it's LI's being so low. sumpin like that - also, keep in mind that the flow is very kadabatic tomorrow so we could over perform from that alone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted June 21, 2019 Share Posted June 21, 2019 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: I contacted Lyme in 1994, it was virtually unknown. I was afflicted by the Babesiosis strain spending 3 days in the fetal position unable to move with a fever of 105. Seriously thought it was over. 2 teenage kids died while I was in South County hospital from the same. I again contacted regular Lyme the next year unknown to me, I thought I had the flu. It passed and I went on with my life. The next summer I developed joint pain so bad I sought help. Luckily for me one of the first Drs to correctly diagnose Lyme treated me. He immediately put me on Doxcycline with a port for regular treatments for 90 days. Gradually I got better but never fully recovered from the arthritis. Never forget at the time Drs were ostracized by CDC and the medical community for diagnosing Lyme. The govt developed Lyme as a biological weapon at their Fishers Island Plum Island secret animal disease test facility. The first cases were detected directly across from Plum Island in Lyme Ct. One of the greatest undercover secrets. Sorry to hear about the Lyme disease. My cousin contracted it years ago, but thankfully it was caught early and he hasn't had any recurring symptoms. The Plum Island facility I believe worked with anthrax and small pox. I doubt Fishers hosted any biological testing, given the large civilian population. The only military facility left out here is an underground bunker that once stored shells and powder during the days of Fort H.G. Wright and was later employed as a sonar monitoring station during the Cold War. And I think that has been abandoned for quite some time as well. Actually can fit the whole island in the event of a major hurricane, nuclear meltdown/attack etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted June 21, 2019 Share Posted June 21, 2019 1 hour ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Not downplaying it at all. It's at least treatable. Powassan is not. My uncle's mother contracted eastern equine encephalitis and was left a vegetable in days. Rarely contracted by humans but very scary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 21, 2019 Share Posted June 21, 2019 2 hours ago, weatherwiz said: 8,0000 SBCAPE showing up later on...that's probably about as high as you'll ever see in the states. I think I've seen some soundings from like India before which showed like 10,000-12,000. Something just tickles me about seeing values that high. I have seen a hair over 10,000 J/kg progged in the Corn Belt before... believe it was in Iowa or perhaps Illinois. Don't believe it was ever observed on a sounding there because it either didn't happen or occurred in between the observation sites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 21, 2019 Author Share Posted June 21, 2019 Just now, Hoosier said: I have seen a hair over 10,000 J/kg progged in the Corn Belt before... believe it was in Iowa or perhaps Illinois. Don't believe it was ever observed on a sounding there because it either didn't happen or occurred in between the observation sites. oh man...that would have been fun if it did. I would imagine that is certainly possible (or at least close to) in the corn belt...especially later in the summer where the dews can get into the lower 80's and you get temps into the 90's and an EML can advect overhead. I think I've seen LI's around -15 there before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 21, 2019 Share Posted June 21, 2019 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: FRH is also 23 C at t1 tomorrow over Logan ... using the NAM? risky. That said, ... it's seeing the backside thickness between 0 and 4,000 k as warmer than we may think - we'll see if it's right. That could also be contributing to it's LI's being so low. sumpin like that - also, keep in mind that the flow is very kadabatic tomorrow so we could over perform from that alone If we get a lot of sun it’s probably gonna be 80 to 82 for sure. I just sort of envisioned a lot of CU popping up to temper the clouds but I could be wrong too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 21, 2019 Share Posted June 21, 2019 This has been the great ass-pack spring/early summer of all time for eastern New England. Yeah...tomorrow and Sunday in particular will put all this in memory but today is basically a microcosm of the whole last 75 days. everywhere east of the Berks and Whites is indundated... west of there... lots of sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 21, 2019 Share Posted June 21, 2019 It could be worse. We could be in St. Johns with Nick. Some of those Julys that they get are cringeworthy...makes July 2009 look like Key West. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted June 21, 2019 Share Posted June 21, 2019 1 hour ago, Hoth said: My uncle's mother contracted eastern equine encephalitis and was left a vegetable in days. Rarely contracted by humans but very scary. Yup. That's another one that sucks, albeit, not from a tick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now