June 2019 Discussion

[BombsAway1288]

4 hours ago, powderfreak said:

That seems humid...

72/44 up this way at the ASOS with 10-20mph breeze.

Really doesn't get any better. 

Yeah, too humid for me. DP's in the 60's starts to get in uncomfortable range even with temps in the 70's.

Your splits are more like it! Perfect really.

[kdxken]

2 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Interesting pattern, no prolonged big heat but definitely summer heat and dews at times interspersed with some BN temps.  Just wish we could get a 5 day stretch with no rain to kind of hit the climate reset button.

 Five? How about a three day stretch . When was the last time ? Has to be a year ago . 

[Torch Tiger]

Yikes that 0z gfs was warm to scolding hot at times with a few days of drenching dews.

[weathafella]

3 hours ago, Dr. Dews said:

Yikes that 0z gfs was warm to scolding hot at times with a few days of drenching dews.

“Old man winter-you better stop messing up summer!”

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

13 hours ago, powderfreak said:

That seems humid...

72/44 up this way at the ASOS with 10-20mph breeze.

Really doesn't get any better.  

We have different criteria’s down here. Anything 60 or below in dews with temps 80 or below is enjoyable. We can grill, do yardwork, let the kids and dogs run around without having to worry about a heat stroke. Each combo temp tickle upwards from 80/60+ and our guards go up. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

9 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Interesting pattern, no prolonged big heat but definitely summer heat and dews at times interspersed with some BN temps.  Just wish we could get a 5 day stretch with no rain to kind of hit the climate reset button.

It’s really just a 24hr dew wave from Monday PM to Tue PM and, as usual, it comes with clouds and rain. Great weekend and a great Tue night onwards.

[powderfreak]

2 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

We have different criteria’s down here. Anything 60 or below in dews with temps 80 or below is enjoyable. We can grill, do yardwork, let the kids and dogs run around without having to worry about a heat stroke. Each combo temp tickle upwards from 80/60+ and our guards go up. 

Very true.  

41F overnight and now another perfect day of 70s over 40s.

[SnoSki14]

7 hours ago, Dr. Dews said:

Yikes that 0z gfs was warm to scolding hot at times with a few days of drenching dews.

And it'll be wrong as it was in the past. 

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It’s really just a 24hr dew wave from Monday PM to Tue PM and, as usual, it comes with clouds and rain. Great weekend and a great Tue night onwards.

And then the 00z suite came out ...   

I've been biding my time in expectation for this normalcy.

All the models did this.  They "tendency" the geopotential heights ( the baser metric for the pattern orientation) to elevate higher, post each successive trough passage.   Such that by D10 ...all majors, the Euro, GFS, GGEM ...  and the parallel GFS for that matter, actually end up on average some 10 DAM height higher as the canvased layout across all of North America.  Perhaps more concomitant, the 850mb thermal layout/oscillatory waves between cool and warm plumes is also warmer on both sides.   

This happens ever year ...much in the same way it goes the other direction in October... ( circa ).  You're in this tug-o-war between seasons ...edging cooler in time, but still seeing stubborn ridges bouncing back. Then all at once, the ridges only bounce back to a lower latitude and lower height expansion in the total averaged lay-out, are also farther south... Usually around Halloween.  Recent mid October grapple and/or outright parachute odd balls we've been observing are in increasing frequency ... That's sort of a separate matter having to do with the general circulation "irregularity" of the planet in deep deep crisis due to GW... But that's a digression... In a normal autumn, one can see the kind of 'click back' period of time, if they are paying attention. 

This?  It's the antithesis to that that also happens circa late April to Junes...  Whether this will reflect in the sensible weather at the surface ( where... when etc) is an operational concern. But the mid level geopotential medium 'ends up' at a higher rest state by D10 ...  sort of a hallmark entry into summer from a geophysical perspective.   For those that embrace summer, ...want heat and DP and all that ... it's a better probability time for you, not so ironically... about right when it typically should at that.   

 

[dendrite]

27 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

And then the 00z suite came out ...   

I've been biding my time in expectation for this normalcy.

All the models did this.  They "tendency" the geopotential heights ( the baser metric for the pattern orientation) to elevate higher, post each successive trough passage.   Such that by D10 ...all majors, the Euro, GFS, GGEM ...  and the parallel GFS for that matter, actually end up on average some 10 DAM height higher as the canvased layout across all of North America.  Perhaps more concomitant, the 850mb thermal layout/oscillatory waves between cool and warm plumes is also warmer on both sides.   

This happens ever year ...much in the same way it goes the other direction in October... ( circa ).  You're in this tug-o-war between seasons ...edging cooler in time, but still seeing stubborn ridges bouncing back. Then all at once, the ridges only bounce back to a lower latitude and lower height expansion in the total averaged lay-out, are also farther south... Usually around Halloween.  Recent mid October grapple and/or outright parachute odd balls we've been observing are in increasing frequency ... That's sort of a separate matter having to do with the general circulation "irregularity" of the planet in deep deep crisis due to GW... But that's a digression... In a normal autumn, one can see the kind of 'click back' period of time, if they are paying attention. 

This?  It's the antithesis to that that also happens circa late April to Junes...  Whether this will reflect in the sensible weather at the surface ( where... when etc) is an operational concern. But the mid level geopotential medium 'ends up' at a higher rest state by D10 ...  sort of a hallmark entry into summer from a geophysical perspective.   For those that embrace summer, ...want heat and DP and all that ... it's a better probability time for you, not so ironically... about right when it typically should at that.   

 

Agree. This weekend is verifying on the warmer side of the range of guidance from earlier in the week. We're sneaking in 2-3 days of solid shortwave ridging and there's not much of a push in the extended of CAA behind the next cold fropa. We'll probably dry it out and drop the dews down a bit, but we'll still be managing 70s to low 80s.

[Damage In Tolland]

Beginnings of a special yore one folks 

[dendrite]

Big recovery already today with full sun. Currently 70F off of a min of 46.9F. Should be some good range up north after mid 30s in the north country ASOS rad pits.

[dendrite]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Beginnings of a special yore one folks 

We need more poor farming practices across the Plains and Midwest like the early 1900s. Pump a monster ridge out there that would make Sonora jelly and sneak some of those 100/60 type airmasses in here like 1911.

[Torch Tiger]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

And it'll be wrong as it was in the past. 

yeah it'll verify hotter and more muggy, good point

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

We need more poor farming practices across the Plains and Midwest like the early 1900s. Pump a monster ridge out there that would make Sonora jelly and sneak some of those 100/60 type airmasses in here like 1911.

I've read that people were dropping dead on the streets during that July - not many, I'm sure, but it only would take a handful to make headlines.  SNE/MA were plenty hot in that one but not record-smashing, while all 3 NNE states were recording their all-time hottest days.  Farmington co-op had 4 days at 102-104 in an 8-day stretch, and they've cracked 100 just twice since then, in June 1944 and Hot Saturday in August 1975.

[dendrite]

50 minutes ago, tamarack said:

I've read that people were dropping dead on the streets during that July - not many, I'm sure, but it only would take a handful to make headlines.  SNE/MA were plenty hot in that one but not record-smashing, while all 3 NNE states were recording their all-time hottest days.  Farmington co-op had 4 days at 102-104 in an 8-day stretch, and they've cracked 100 just twice since then, in June 1944 and Hot Saturday in August 1975.

I would've loved to see the 850s for that. There was probably some kind of extreme +25C plume that went up into Canada and advected in via NW flow. Granted it was drier times back the,n as we approached the dust bowl era, but we were still pulling off max 102/min 60 type days in the countryside. I should check out the obs south of James Bay for that 7/1-7/10 period.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, tamarack said:

I've read that people were dropping dead on the streets during that July - not many, I'm sure, but it only would take a handful to make headlines.  SNE/MA were plenty hot in that one but not record-smashing, while all 3 NNE states were recording their all-time hottest days.  Farmington co-op had 4 days at 102-104 in an 8-day stretch, and they've cracked 100 just twice since then, in June 1944 and Hot Saturday in August 1975.

Heat waves fascinating me ....  ( seeing as you asked  )  ... probably not 'quite' as OCD as the winter stat bent 'round deez pahts ...but, I do find them to be a worth-while study/science as far as recognizable synoptic presaging markers, and also an empirically significant sensible phenomenon that is  ( imho ) not nearly respected enough.   Heat should be right up there with the fab four weather phenomenon,  tornadoes, floods, hurricanes and lightning.   

Firstly ... typically when we hear the word "heat .." it's conflated with "drought" ....  'Heat and drought already taking massive tolls due to climate change' ...etc. 

That's certainly true. The two "tend" to overlap.  But, heat in and of its self is not a requirement for drought... Nor ( really ) is drought required for heat.   They may exacerbate one another ...true, if we wanna get into that.  

But, we can certainly suffer a historic number of triple digit days in a summer season while maintaining only a modest drought footprint on the landscape.  Case in point ...as far as I can quickly look up on the Web ...1911 was not a particularly 'drought' stricken season - it did however have big heat.  

Most to point ...  2012 was a huge costly season to agriculture sectors, as well as those industrial sectors that are either directly or indirectly disposed to 'normalcy' in agrarian activities ..which is a vast subsequent envelope.  Corn derivatives are in shockingly broad spectrum of solid state physical componentries of society ...etc..  goes the complex integration of the environment to gear the machinery of a lot that is taken for granted... 

Not to make this about social commentary ... My point is, that year stymied production there, as well as direct cross over into live-stock.   And the list goes on...  We start getting into eco system break downs and species forced migration ( which includes Humanity limbs already ...as can be indirectly studied in Baltic migration since 2000 due to farm collapse...)...  with increased frequency of associated mutations of disease -related pathogens that can be empirically, directly linked to the diaspora.  

But I'm digressing all over...   With so many problems that can be directly related to climate busting heat numbers ...It's interesting that the list above does not include Heat ... I would also include Cold in that too...  Temperature in general.   I mean ....hell.  One of the grand chalenges of the Astronomic sciences is to locate life on other words.  They have identified, around stars, these "Goldie Locks" zones... or, regions that are close enough to melt ice, but far enough to maintain liquid water...  Intrinsic in that definition is clearly a temperature concern! hello -  ... With life's fragility inexorably linked to the vitality of a system, and said vitality apparently at least in part defined by the existence of about a 50 F band width of temperature, seems logical that is something we should recognize in the threat discussion. 

[powderfreak]

74/45 off a low of 41F... should do a 35-40 degree diurnal swing today. 

Just perfect weather though with dews in 40s and full sunshine.

[Hoosier]

3 hours ago, dendrite said:

We need more poor farming practices across the Plains and Midwest like the early 1900s. Pump a monster ridge out there that would make Sonora jelly and sneak some of those 100/60 type airmasses in here like 1911.

The crop is actually lagging well behind usual in the Midwest... as bad as it's been in 30-40 years in some areas.  Farmers just haven't been able to plant much.  But it is because of the exceptional wetness, which isn't exactly the best way to build massive heat domes.   

[Typhoon Tip]

12 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

The crop is actually lagging well behind usual in the Midwest... as bad as it's been in 30-40 years in some areas.  Farmers just haven't been able to plant much.  But it is because of the exceptional wetness, which isn't exactly the best way to build massive heat domes.   

Yeah ...as far as this spring leading factors/indicators go... the continental hydro anomalies could be an offset - I'm glad someone brought this up. I've been thinking about that too.

I was wondering if some of the reasons why the Euro was shirking the amplitude of the present ridge,  back five days ago when it kept seeming to spontaneously 'deflate' it without having any mechanical... if some of that might have actually been an environmental feed back of having excessive rainfall out west.  This ridge's wave spacing passed synoptic squarely through that region of country prior to setting up max amplitude nearing NYC ... It seems once that finished...the Euro came on board...  Could all be coincidence but I don't like those so much -

 

[Torch Tiger]

4 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Beginnings of a special yore one folks 

This is going to be intense. 3rd and 4th window units going up and in to keep pace intensity

[OceanStWx]

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

The crop is actually lagging well behind usual in the Midwest... as bad as it's been in 30-40 years in some areas.  Farmers just haven't been able to plant much.  But it is because of the exceptional wetness, which isn't exactly the best way to build massive heat domes.   

I loved my time out there, and it's tough to hear how bad it is right now. 

And that sets up potential feedback into what are the wettest months of the year. Way more moisture out there that typical evapotranspiration offers.

[dendrite]

MHT 82/38

That's how we dry it out.

[mostman]

This is just ideal weather. I’ll take this all the way to September. 

[Torch Tiger]

16 minutes ago, mostman said:

This is just ideal weather. I’ll take this all the way to September. 

And thru January

[Torch Tiger]

It's coming

 

Thursday and Friday...

A pretty strong shortwave trough approaching from the west will
combined with upper level ridging across the Atlantic.  This may
allow for the mid level flow to become meridional for a time.  Quite
a bit of uncertainty in this time range, but this should result in
some showers Thursday into early Friday. If certain mesoscale
ingredients come together, such as a period of deep meridional flow
interacting with a warm front...pockets of heavy rainfall would be
possible.

[Ginx snewx]

 

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

MHT 82/38

That's how we dry it out.

Oh man, that takes the "perfect" award for today.

80s over 30s all summer please.  

[Ginx snewx]

More like COC of yore COCOY

[Ginx snewx]

6 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Oh man, that takes the "perfect" award for today.

Clouds ruined my tan time today