weatherwiz Posted June 5, 2019 Author Share Posted June 5, 2019 21 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I seem to remember reading on here that a -NAO doesn’t have much effect on NE wx in the summer months? IE, can still be warm and humid.. Tip maybe can expound on this? Speaking of the NAO there is this project I've always wanted to work on but I am just not smart enough math wise to do it...and not entirely sure how to go about it. I understand at the end of the day the structure and placement of the anomalies are more important than the raw number but... I am not a huge fan of just a monthly average value. I would like to construct like bi-weekly values. The CPC does have daily values available for the NAO, AO, PNA, and maybe others...now you would think it would be as simple as just taking like two weeks worth of values, adding them up, and then dividing by 14...but I don't think it works like that. If you take the monthly daily values, add up, and then divide by how many days are in that month you don't get a value which equals the monthly value. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 5, 2019 Share Posted June 5, 2019 15 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Speaking of the NAO there is this project I've always wanted to work on but I am just not smart enough math wise to do it...and not entirely sure how to go about it. I understand at the end of the day the structure and placement of the anomalies are more important than the raw number is the entire everything and nothing else matters.. but... I am not a huge fan of just a monthly average value. I would like to construct like bi-weekly values. The CPC does have daily values available for the NAO, AO, PNA, and maybe others...now you would think it would be as simple as just taking like two weeks worth of values, adding them up, and then dividing by 14...but I don't think it works like that. If you take the monthly daily values, add up, and then divide by how many days are in that month you don't get a value which equals the monthly value. A little snark crossin' ya out like that, perhaps ... but it's really true. Numbers don't mean shit... They only "suggest" ... you have to then observe the mass-field distribution and just think of it this way... We've identified in the past, western versus eastern limbed anomaly distribution and what they mean for 'forcing' pattern constructs here ... Not just in the parlance of on-line weather-related social media but all the way up to officiate offices too... And all that is true for all domain spaces, for that matter... -(+) EPO's out near the the western region of that domain space can make a world of difference where the cold loading into N/A takes place...for example... etc...etc.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 5, 2019 Author Share Posted June 5, 2019 Proper edit haha...and speaking of that...that is where knowing how to computer program is awesome b/c then you can just create plots. I'm going to try super hard to learn Python Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 5, 2019 Share Posted June 5, 2019 3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Proper edit haha...and speaking of that...that is where knowing how to computer program is awesome b/c then you can just create plots. I'm going to try super hard to learn Python I added some notes to that ... ( I inadvertently posted before finishing typing ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 5, 2019 Author Share Posted June 5, 2019 5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: A little snark crossin' ya out like that, perhaps ... but it's really true. Numbers don't mean shit... They only "suggest" ... you have to then observe the mass-field distribution and just think of it this way... We've identified in the past, western versus eastern limbed anomaly distribution and what they mean for 'forcing' pattern constructs here ... Not just in the parlance of on-line weather-related social media but all the way up to officiate offices too... And all that is true for all domain spaces, for that matter... -(+) EPO's out near the the western region of that domain space can make a world of difference where the cold loading into N/A takes place...for example... etc...etc.. For the bolded...no snark at all...it's incredibly true. We have heavily seen how the placement and structure of the anomaly centers matter more than anything else. This is even true for ENSO...it's more than just La Nina and EL Nino. What I like to do sometimes is throw up 500 height anomalies for like negative NAO winters and then look at each one (I'll do like the top 10 strongest episode so you can see the signal clearer) and you can see exactly how the placement of the anomaly dictates things...you can sort of visualize what the pattern would look like if the anomaly was displaced elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted June 5, 2019 Share Posted June 5, 2019 Drove down to Boston this morning. Sun 75f. Back in pwm, clouds 58f. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 5, 2019 Share Posted June 5, 2019 18 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: For the bolded...no snark at all...it's incredibly true. We have heavily seen how the placement and structure of the anomaly centers matter more than anything else. This is even true for ENSO...it's more than just La Nina and EL Nino. What I like to do sometimes is throw up 500 height anomalies for like negative NAO winters and then look at each one (I'll do like the top 10 strongest episode so you can see the signal clearer) and you can see exactly how the placement of the anomaly dictates things...you can sort of visualize what the pattern would look like if the anomaly was displaced elsewhere. Right ...adding, "moving" anomaly "nodes" around ... that's what creates weather... well, at a fundamental level, differential heating along a curved surface does, but you get what I mean. If the NAO is an east limb variation, and then the anomaly starts retrograding toward a west one, that in its self can create winter storm track changes that effect the latitude where they move off eastern N/A ...etc.. I like to look at the changing numerical values of the teleconnectors combined with the observations of mass-field distribution ... ( just mean where the ridges and troughs are migrating...) This is actually a good point and time to point out why a -NAO may not mean as much for our temperature biases over the next week. Kevin was asking earlier... Firstly, the mean R-wave length in the summer is difficult at times to ascertain ..because they are more amorphously structured in the summer/warm season months... That said, what are identifiable, they tend to be shorter in wave-length. Well... consider that logically: the correlations to the pattern have to thus be different compared to winter, when the coherency of the wave spacing/structures is much clearer, ...and, longer. Thus, a -NAO wester limb blocking is not really the same in June as it is at Christmas... I mean, I should say "doesnt' tend to be" But, this particular week coming up... the Euro's deep lower Maritime gyre doesn't have a very strong over -arcing high height block ... But, because that gyre is so deep, the total anomaly is pulling the -NAO very deep... But that is a situation where the raw -NAO numbers kind of lie ( for lack of better word ) about it's ability to keep our region very cool. In fact, the Euro has 12 C or warmer 850 mb temperatures from D4.5 to almost the end of the run. If the wind stays offshore and it's sunny... it will get into the 80s assuming that sort of scenario verified.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted June 5, 2019 Share Posted June 5, 2019 What a day, full-tilt summer. After a few bangers tonight, we stride right into a beautiful summer weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 5, 2019 Share Posted June 5, 2019 69.4F Forgot what 70F feels like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted June 5, 2019 Share Posted June 5, 2019 80F, can't remember what 70 feels like. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 5, 2019 Share Posted June 5, 2019 1 hour ago, Lava Rock said: Drove down to Boston this morning. Sun 75f. Back in pwm, clouds 58f. . I'm back in Stowe...welcome back to 58F at 1pm in June. Jacket and pants abound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted June 5, 2019 Share Posted June 5, 2019 Man what a 10-day this is for HFD. Cravings 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 5, 2019 Share Posted June 5, 2019 Yeah we'll take that all summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted June 5, 2019 Share Posted June 5, 2019 82.3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 5, 2019 Share Posted June 5, 2019 Where’s the cold wet pattern a few were calling for? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted June 5, 2019 Share Posted June 5, 2019 So, heard there wouldn't be much sun to destabilize today ahead of tonight's rain. Pretty much bright sunshine and humid all day so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted June 5, 2019 Share Posted June 5, 2019 40 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Where’s the cold wet pattern a few were calling for? Up here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 5, 2019 Share Posted June 5, 2019 may very well be a temperate summer ... then we get that one mandatory four days of 94 to 96 to make up for it circa Sep 1 through the 10th before we cave toward a blocking early October that gins up lots of good feelings for a winter just before it all rolls-back into a no show 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted June 5, 2019 Share Posted June 5, 2019 41 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Where’s the cold wet pattern a few were calling for? Probably in the same place as the tornado outbreak that you called for. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted June 5, 2019 Share Posted June 5, 2019 42 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Where’s the cold wet pattern a few were calling for? Yeah that was earlier this summer, several weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted June 5, 2019 Share Posted June 5, 2019 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: may very well be a temperate summer ... then we get that one mandatory four days of 94 to 96 to make up for Sep 1 through the 10th before we cave toward a blocking early October and lots of good feelings for a winter that rolls-back into a no show Tip you managed to ruin a certain someone's summer and winter all in 1 sentence …..good work! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 5, 2019 Share Posted June 5, 2019 14 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: Tip you managed to ruin a certain someone's summer and winter all in 1 sentence …..good work! Hey ...don't blame the realist ...much less the messenger - I bet if you put 100 winters on graph that has a y-axis = licking donkey balls ... 0 being no balls ... 10 a full bj ... > 50 of them are in the 6 or 7 range. It's one of the reasons why I'm usually mailin' it in around the 10th of March and start looking forward to 66 days of mist instead ... because by that point in time, I don't know which is worse - the bj or the north atlantic prison scene. But yeah...that was my goal.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted June 5, 2019 Share Posted June 5, 2019 On a lighter and positive note, 81.6F on my Davis Edit rocketed up to 81.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 5, 2019 Share Posted June 5, 2019 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Hey ...don't blame the realist ...much less the messenger - I bet if you put 100 winters on graph that has a y-axis = licking donkey balls ... 0 being no balls ... 10 a full bj ... > 50 of them are in the 6 or 7 range. It's one of the reasons why I'm usually mailin' it in around the 10th of March and start looking forward to 66 days of mist instead ... because by that point in time, I don't know which is worse - the bj or the north atlantic prison scene. But yeah...that was my goal.. He was planning on a cold , wet summer , so your mention of a slightly warmer than normal summer did not sit well . These cold , wet summer freaks are just mind bogglers 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted June 5, 2019 Share Posted June 5, 2019 1 minute ago, Dr. Dews said: On a lighter and positive note, 81.6F on my Davis You should head down to Mac's Two and enjoy the afternoon on the veranda. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted June 5, 2019 Share Posted June 5, 2019 2 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said: On a lighter and positive note, 81.6F on my Davis You should have it up online to view in the weather network. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted June 5, 2019 Share Posted June 5, 2019 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: He was planning on a cold , wet summer , so your mention of a slightly warmer than normal summer did not sit well . These cold , wet summer freaks are just mind bogglers Find where I posted that....lol As usual made up jr high stuff. And I meant he ruined YOUR summer and Winter all in one sentence!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 5, 2019 Share Posted June 5, 2019 I got a question for all you Davis and/or what-have-you home weather station techies: what do you do about officiate calibration ? I'm not asking to impugn anyone's data, but... take last June 30 through the 5th of July... there was a 93-96 sort of heat wave ... during which most of the Davis' on Wunder' were consummately higher than any of the 4 major NWS climo ... by hourly and on the 2s... In fact, any station on the site that was equal to NWS were outliers relative to Wunder's site. I'm wondering why that is. It seems logical to assume that the technology its self is not designed to be 3 to 5 F warmer in DP than the NWS calibration technique so... I'm not sure it's a station placement issue or what's up with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted June 5, 2019 Share Posted June 5, 2019 8 minutes ago, dryslot said: You should have it up online to view in the weather network. Yeah it's on my to-dew list, hopefully the server will be back up and ready this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted June 5, 2019 Share Posted June 5, 2019 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I got a question for all you Davis and/or what-have-you home weather station techies: what do you do about officiate calibration ? I'm not asking to impugn anyone's data, but... take last June 30 through the 5th of July... there was a 93-96 sort of heat wave ... during which most of the Davis' on Wunder' were consummately higher than any of the 4 major NWS climo ... by hourly and on the 2s... In fact, any station on the site that was equal to NWS were outliers relative to Wunder's site. I'm wondering why that is. It seems logical to assume that the technology its self is not designed to be 3 to 5 F warmer in DP than the NWS calibration technique so... I'm not sure it's a station placement issue or what's up with that. That's a question better suited for others. I use a FARS and also a siting that avoids too much radiation. The solar input is mostly early in the day. Not sure of the latest and greatest with the tech stuff anymore, but the fars (in working order heh) improves accuracy to some end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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