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June 2019 Discussion


weatherwiz
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This batch of overly warned convection appears to be warm frontal ...Counter intuitive but these cluster do run along warm fronts ..There's a distinct cfropa related linear complex over eastern NY we'll have to contend with ...probably in some diminished form later on given our short-bus convective climate ...

Sucks too... just clipped me here at this end of Rt 2... Not five miles S of me the outflow terms and I'm sure it's still near 80 ... I was lookin forward to an evening in open toed shoes, shorts and casual polo ..now it's back to jeans and long sleeve shirt.

it's still winter...  I'll let you know when the season finally's changed ... rat stinker

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17 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Man what a beautiful day. Warm humid deep summer and sunny and for the first time in maybe 6+ months a rain event failed. We have turned the corner to a warmer and certainly drier pattern . 

Congrats on having the boundary 100mi to your north...lol

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MOS numbers in the low 70s down this way ... Couldn't be more satisfied with this air mass as it's been thoroughly cleansed of smoke contamination. No cloud, June sun, lower humidities... and not cold ... Not really even cool - though yes... when the sun goes down, the dusky air may homage an autumnal appeal.

This is a like an etch-n-sketch swipe - for those of us of older generations that know what those are.  In this case, we set the stage for synoptic differences. 

Namely, the 850 mb thermal layout is warmer out there as a canvas ... panning the entire lower Canadian provinces and throughout any of our source regions, much more obviously so than at any other prior evaluation cycle this fledgling warm season.  

That said, the hemisphere circulation is still, for whatever reason... locked into an inordinately meridional tendency.  Even when the combined ensemble mean(s) numerically calculate the tele's as neutral or even positive, this doesn't seem to reflect very well in the dailies of the operational versions, nor those particular individual means within themselves either.  I still wonder if/when there is and en masse correction where the two align, but is yet to do so.  But here's the thing... despite that, the Euro ( for example ) really doesn't descend the 850 mb much below +10 C throughout its mid and extended range; that, despite the -1 or -2 SD, 500 mb ginormous lower Maritime gyre that still ( imho ) seems to defy large -scaled physical/synoptic arguments ... Be that as it may, seein' as I don't run Navier/Stokes corrective algorithms in my mind so be it.  The 00z GFS and some recent runs of the parallel ( FV3') were more agreeable in that regard but whatever. 

The same circulation synoptically, but a warmer variation of it. 

That's the mean of the models ... I don't like that either.  It seems the hemisphere is in limbo ... We really shouldn't be generating those 500 mb gradients in the geopotential, with 4 or 5 contoured hornet sting upper vortexes that envelop massive geographical expanses. It's interesting that the models are gutting the cold and warming the lower troposphere underneath all that. 

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