NJwx85 Posted May 23, 2019 Share Posted May 23, 2019 The squall line that ripped through the mid West last night is currently entering Western NY and Western PA and should be here in about 6-8 hours. As the trough digs Southeast, it will interact with the warm moist air coming in from the SW and a strengthening LLJ. In addition, we could see some discrete convection out ahead of the main line or even late tonight after it passes. Although the main threat is straight line wind damage, some areas could see some large hail and an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. SPC has placed most of the area in a risk for severe thunderstorms. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 23, 2019 Share Posted May 23, 2019 sun coming out here....should help destabilize... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted May 23, 2019 Share Posted May 23, 2019 Clearing looks better than I expected in PA. I couldn't tell you how many severe outbreaks fizzled growing up there because the sun decided not to make an appearance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 23, 2019 Author Share Posted May 23, 2019 First watch of the day up for Western NY and NW PA until 2PM Eastern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted May 23, 2019 Share Posted May 23, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 23, 2019 Share Posted May 23, 2019 I'm not getting my hopes up, all I ask is for a decent strong storm. Skies are still cloudy by me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 23, 2019 Share Posted May 23, 2019 3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: I'm not getting my hopes up, all I ask is for a decent strong storm. Skies are still cloudy by me. Sun's popping out after a heavy shower. Severe in May is pretty rare anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted May 23, 2019 Share Posted May 23, 2019 I think we have a pretty good shot at an organized MCS heading through the region today. I would think something similar to last May. Obviously there will be differences in Intensity in any given area. One thing is for certain, storms will weaken as soon as they hit the city and marine influence. Luckily I’ll be on the uws for this one with 360 degree views of the entire city. I’ll post pics later 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 23, 2019 Share Posted May 23, 2019 Slight risk has been extended East to include all 5 boroughs and Nassau Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted May 23, 2019 Share Posted May 23, 2019 Getting some sun on Long Island, perhaps we can get muster up a weak rumble of thunder later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted May 23, 2019 Share Posted May 23, 2019 2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said: Sun's popping out after a heavy shower. Severe in May is pretty rare anyway We had tornadoes and insane straight line winds just over a year ago. The damage is still evident all around the area. I'd rather not go through that again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 23, 2019 Share Posted May 23, 2019 the initial line looks garden variety out of the Binghamton radar... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 23, 2019 Share Posted May 23, 2019 5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: the initial line looks garden variety out of the Binghamton radar... The only warning is west of Baltimore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted May 23, 2019 Share Posted May 23, 2019 Minimal lightning activity so far with the cell just west of Allentown PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 23, 2019 Author Share Posted May 23, 2019 All of the instability is behind the initial squall line. We need this to get out of the way for the main show later today, if it ends up arriving in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 23, 2019 Share Posted May 23, 2019 Timing seems off. By the time this line of crap gets out of the way, you have rain cooled air and loss of daytime heating.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 23, 2019 Author Share Posted May 23, 2019 Just now, Brian5671 said: Timing seems off. By the time this line of crap gets out of the way, you have rain cooled air and loss of daytime heating.... It clears out rapidly once the squall line passes. The environment over most of PA is very favorable for super cells with strong shear and enough instability to get the job done. Limiting factor this far East is that the storm motion looks to be more NW to SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 23, 2019 Share Posted May 23, 2019 Just now, NJwx85 said: It clears out rapidly once the squall line passes. The environment over most of PA is very favorable for super cells with strong shear and enough instability to get the job done. Limiting factor this far East is that the storm motion looks to be more NW to SE. It will be interesting to see if the RGEM solution is right-really pounds eastern PA and parts of NJ especially S of NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 23, 2019 Author Share Posted May 23, 2019 3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: It will be interesting to see if the RGEM solution is right-really pounds eastern PA and parts of NJ especially S of NYC It's already way off on the timing. It's currently 1903z and the graphics don't match up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 23, 2019 Share Posted May 23, 2019 4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: It will be interesting to see if the RGEM solution is right-really pounds eastern PA and parts of NJ especially S of NYC it makes no sense. It doesn't even have the squall line over eastern PA right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted May 23, 2019 Share Posted May 23, 2019 Doesn't look like today's going to pan out. The squall line looks thin and meaningless and anything that develops behind that is going to be too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted May 23, 2019 Share Posted May 23, 2019 RGEM/HRDPS aren't the first models I'd use for severe weather. Then again, the NAM and HRRR haven't exactly been killing it with the plains outbreaks recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted May 23, 2019 Share Posted May 23, 2019 10 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: it makes no sense. It doesn't even have the squall line over eastern PA right now Squall line is stretching it. Ten lightning strikes on my Weatherflow in the past hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 23, 2019 Share Posted May 23, 2019 12 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: it makes no sense. It doesn't even have the squall line over eastern PA right now i can't find any models that do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 23, 2019 Share Posted May 23, 2019 i'll take this over most of the garbage we get during the warm season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted May 23, 2019 Share Posted May 23, 2019 25 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Timing seems off. By the time this line of crap gets out of the way, you have rain cooled air and loss of daytime heating.... Yeah, this threats cooked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 23, 2019 Author Share Posted May 23, 2019 Broad rotation on radar for the cell just North of DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 23, 2019 Share Posted May 23, 2019 2 minutes ago, Tatamy said: Squall line is stretching it. Ten lightning strikes on my Weatherflow in the past hour. yeah just meaning it has nothing right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 23, 2019 Share Posted May 23, 2019 northern piece of the line is falling apart-won't be anything more than a passing shower north of NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 23, 2019 Author Share Posted May 23, 2019 The main threat has always been for what's coming after this line. Let things play out. It's almost June. We can get severe storms at 3AM this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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