weatherwiz Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 The 12z RPM is wild Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 I have a friend in Emmaus, (eastern PA) Gave him a heads up for tomorrow thanks to you guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 This lead energy is something that could vastly reduce the potential though...it moves through super early. This causes a whole bunch of stuff to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 4 hours ago, weatherwiz said: The 12z RPM is wild For who? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 23, 2019 Share Posted May 23, 2019 5 hours ago, Modfan said: For who? PA/NY into SNE...elevated stuff here with hail threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted May 23, 2019 Author Share Posted May 23, 2019 17 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: PA/NY into SNE...elevated stuff here with hail threat Threat cancel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted May 23, 2019 Share Posted May 23, 2019 For eastern folks these threads remind me somewhat of James OES threads . Not happening. Jomo on other hand tonite 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted May 23, 2019 Share Posted May 23, 2019 Winds could be quite rampant, not sure if they will be convectively enhanced, but they should ramp up especially out of the NW and N tomorrow on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 23, 2019 Share Posted May 23, 2019 Still looks like we'll see some nasty storms out across south-central NY into PA. Don't think we'll see activity as widespread as I thought a few days ago, but models still show enough MUCAPE/shear to warrant isolated severe t'storms into SNE through the late evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 23, 2019 Share Posted May 23, 2019 Today turning into a sunny day in SNE. This will help convection hold together which is why we’re seeing the mesos ripping storms thru this evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted May 23, 2019 Share Posted May 23, 2019 MEH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted May 23, 2019 Share Posted May 23, 2019 Showers, Whoopee 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 23, 2019 Share Posted May 23, 2019 Several hodos over NY/PA suggest right moving supercells possible today...could be locally significant b/c that would vastly increase t'storm shear (there is a term for this I think) locally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 23, 2019 Share Posted May 23, 2019 oof...better hope for a stronger push of moisture into NY/PA. Dews are low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted May 23, 2019 Author Share Posted May 23, 2019 Looks like crap for sne, but even without much instability the line is producing. we'll see what happens. DISCUSSION...A line of convection stretching from southern Ontario into central OH has shown some signs of intensification early this morning. Several reports of 35-45 kt gusts have been noted across central OH with one severe gust of 55 kt at Cleveland. While the line is likely somewhat elevated, current track indicates the line is shifting east/northeast at around 60 kt. Inhibition downstream into northwest PA and far western NY per 12z mesoanalysis is weak and will continue to weaken has the boundary layer warms this morning. Strong vertical shear and an MCV evident in surface observations and radar should be adequate to maintain some organized threat for strong to locally damaging gusts through the morning hours despite weak instability. As such, a watch may be needed if trends continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 23, 2019 Share Posted May 23, 2019 2 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said: Looks like crap for sne, but even without much instability the line is producing. we'll see what happens. DISCUSSION...A line of convection stretching from southern Ontario into central OH has shown some signs of intensification early this morning. Several reports of 35-45 kt gusts have been noted across central OH with one severe gust of 55 kt at Cleveland. While the line is likely somewhat elevated, current track indicates the line is shifting east/northeast at around 60 kt. Inhibition downstream into northwest PA and far western NY per 12z mesoanalysis is weak and will continue to weaken has the boundary layer warms this morning. Strong vertical shear and an MCV evident in surface observations and radar should be adequate to maintain some organized threat for strong to locally damaging gusts through the morning hours despite weak instability. As such, a watch may be needed if trends continue. I mean there is barely a marginal risk into SNE, so I wouldn't be getting my hopes up for anything more than isolated severe. Models support that at least as a low chance risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 23, 2019 Share Posted May 23, 2019 22 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Several hodos over NY/PA suggest right moving supercells possible today...could be locally significant b/c that would vastly increase t'storm shear (there is a term for this I think) locally. The nice part about the wind field today is that a right mover is going to do just fine with SW winds at the surface. That's why NW flow is great, it's still a 90 degree angle to veered surface winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted May 23, 2019 Author Share Posted May 23, 2019 9 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I mean there is barely a marginal risk into SNE, so I wouldn't be getting my hopes up for anything more than isolated severe. Models support that at least as a low chance risk. Yeah, I never had my hopes up for ENE. Lol That was just in reference to SW or WNE. "SNE" was a bit vague. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 23, 2019 Share Posted May 23, 2019 5 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: The nice part about the wind field today is that a right mover is going to do just fine with SW winds at the surface. That's why NW flow is great, it's still a 90 degree angle to veered surface winds. I'm sure there could be some valley enhancement too going on. HREF really likes NE PA and it's kinda hard to go against that. I am a little surprised though that the marginal risk for extreme western SNE is due to wind probs as opposed to hail. I can see some window of opportunity for gusts (likely outflow driven) but I would think our isolated severe is more for hail...MUCAPES may still spike near 1000 over western sections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 23, 2019 Share Posted May 23, 2019 Don't see that value very often in the Northeast. The potential is certainly there in PA today...now to just see how things unfold over the next several hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 23, 2019 Share Posted May 23, 2019 10 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I'm sure there could be some valley enhancement too going on. HREF really likes NE PA and it's kinda hard to go against that. I am a little surprised though that the marginal risk for extreme western SNE is due to wind probs as opposed to hail. I can see some window of opportunity for gusts (likely outflow driven) but I would think our isolated severe is more for hail...MUCAPES may still spike near 1000 over western sections. My biggest concern for PA is storm coverage. That's a little more uncertain on CAMs. But quite a few valleys there are SW to NE oriented so that channeled flow is actually pretty favorable in this environment. There is good hail CAPE still available in parts of SNE, but I would like to see it a little lower in the sounding and not as close to the storm top as it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 23, 2019 Share Posted May 23, 2019 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: My biggest concern for PA is storm coverage. That's a little more uncertain on CAMs. But quite a few valleys there are SW to NE oriented so that channeled flow is actually pretty favorable in this environment. There is good hail CAPE still available in parts of SNE, but I would like to see it a little lower in the sounding and not as close to the storm top as it is. Yeah storm coverage is something I've been thinking too. Smaller storm coverage may locally further enhance potential for storms to produce. If storm coverage is greater though we could see more of a widespread damaging wind threat. Maybe organized activity will form and they can survive off a cold pool into SNE lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted May 23, 2019 Author Share Posted May 23, 2019 Nice discussion from BOX. Basically a few passing showers, with a rumble thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted May 23, 2019 Author Share Posted May 23, 2019 4 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Today turning into a sunny day in SNE. This will help convection hold together which is why we’re seeing the mesos ripping storms thru this evening It may not even rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 23, 2019 Share Posted May 23, 2019 2 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said: It may not even rain CT will bang after dark. Mesos have a nice line 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ct_yankee Posted May 23, 2019 Share Posted May 23, 2019 Does not feel like a severe day. At all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted May 23, 2019 Author Share Posted May 23, 2019 Looks bleak however, the Mid-Atlantic is banging. Congrats to those folk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted May 23, 2019 Share Posted May 23, 2019 Strengthening storm on the way here.. we thunder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted May 23, 2019 Share Posted May 23, 2019 Not much wind some lightning... dumping buckets though 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted May 23, 2019 Share Posted May 23, 2019 Just now, ineedsnow said: Not much wind some lightning... dumping buckets though Meh here, no rain and a few rumble's of thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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