Torch Tiger Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 May as well fire this one up as it appears that we'll definitely have some storms to contend with, possibly strong/svr. though the overall look and puzzle pieces seem fickle outside of 48 hrs lead time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 I am quite impressed with Thursday night....moreso than the SLIGHT risk area to our west. Pretty decent s/w diving SE out of Canada with good shear and elevated CAPE with steep lapse rates. Height falls look pretty decent too. Could be a pretty active night actually. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 I really like the surge of theta-e air throughout the evening. Pretty solid moisture convergence/convergence too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 Anyone think we should go with a more blanket summer convection thread like in the past? Or is a new thread for every summer day with t-storms the better route? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: Anyone think we should go with a more blanket summer convection thread like in the past? Or is a new thread for every summer day with t-storms the better route? I like the separate threads...similar to winter weather threats. Only b/c it makes it easier to shift through if you're trying to find something. Either way is fine though...I don't have a strong preference. I think last year we just ended up using the May 1st thread lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 Tough to gather whether this energy is legit, but if that is this could cause some problems across NY/PA given the soundings and environment. I also retract some of my previous statements regarding lack of s/w support for PA/NY...PA yes, NY not so much..especially upstate/central Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Tough to gather whether this energy is legit, but if that is this could cause some problems across NY/PA given the soundings and environment. I also retract some of my previous statements regarding lack of s/w support for PA/NY...PA yes, NY not so much..especially upstate/central Shear is pretty impressive on recent NAM runs. > 60 kt 0-6 km and approaching that for 0-3 km shear. That points towards potentially higher end severe no matter the mode (discrete or squall line), especially when factoring in lapse rates aloft. I'll be curious to see what the 00z ARW/NMM runs look like. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted May 21, 2019 Author Share Posted May 21, 2019 I like having event-specific threads, especially if there's a good shot of organized strong storms and the event is reasonably predictable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 Will dews be high enough for Tors and ginning up spinners? LCL’s? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 18 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Will dews be high enough for Tors and ginning up spinners? LCL’s? NAM forecasts for PA/NY are in the 65 degree range, which leads to LCLs around 1000 m. So I would say about in the middle, not bad but not great either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 21 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: NAM forecasts for PA/NY are in the 65 degree range, which leads to LCLs around 1000 m. So I would say about in the middle, not bad but not great either. Well we don’t care about those areas. I meant for us . Unless you meant that’s what is advecting into our area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 53 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Shear is pretty impressive on recent NAM runs. > 60 kt 0-6 km and approaching that for 0-3 km shear. That points towards potentially higher end severe no matter the mode (discrete or squall line), especially when factoring in lapse rates aloft. I'll be curious to see what the 00z ARW/NMM runs look like. I don't think this is entirely similar, but this sort of reminds me of May 26, 2010 (or maybe it was 2009). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 May even have some hail with convection into NY/PA tomorrow night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 This is a New England forum.NY and PA don’t live here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 16 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: This is a New England forum.NY and PA don’t live here This is a Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 What time is all this progged for? I’m flying home from Columbus,OH through LGA Thursday night. Leaving here at 7:00 and getting back to BTV about 11:15 pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Well we don’t care about those areas. I meant for us . Unless you meant that’s what is advecting into our area I did not mean that. New England is going to be inverted in all likelihood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 1 hour ago, mreaves said: What time is all this progged for? I’m flying home from Columbus,OH through LGA Thursday night. Leaving here at 7:00 and getting back to BTV about 11:15 pm What time are you scheduled to arrive at LGA? I would think you’re fine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 This looks legit for PA. Maybe 6/2/98 redux? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: This looks legit for PA. Maybe 6/2/98 redux? Can't we back this analog up another 3 days? 1998 was a weenie's wet dream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: This looks legit for PA. Maybe 6/2/98 redux? I think the main s/w track looks a bit more favorable than yesterday too. In fact, that looks pretty similar to 6/2/98 and the environment is quite supportive for tornadic supercells. Looking at some of the SPC SREF products I think you could argue a MOD RISK may be in store at some point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I think the main s/w track looks a bit more favorable than yesterday too. In fact, that looks pretty similar to 6/2/98 and the environment is quite supportive for tornadic supercells. Looking at some of the SPC SREF products I think you could argue a MOD RISK may be in store at some point SPC suggesting a 10% tor risk possible out there tomorrow. Not bad for this part of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 1 minute ago, Hoth said: SPC suggesting a 10% tor risk possible out there tomorrow. Not bad for this part of the world. I was trying to gather if that was geared more towards the southern Plains or Northeast....hell I guess it could be both. Judging by the SPC SREF Sig tor ingredients I could see a 10%. I wanted to see the HREF probs but I guess it doesn't go out far enough yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 There are a few wild cards with instability, but overall some favorable factors tomorrow out there. For us, if we can keep a remnant EML, we’ll likely have evening boomers that may feature hail and frequent lightning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: I was trying to gather if that was geared more towards the southern Plains or Northeast....hell I guess it could be both. Judging by the SPC SREF Sig tor ingredients I could see a 10%. I wanted to see the HREF probs but I guess it doesn't go out far enough yet. Good point, I initially took that to refer to the Northeast, but it could very well refer to the whole CONUS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 1 minute ago, Hoth said: Good point, I initially took that to refer to the Northeast, but it could very well refer to the whole CONUS. Actually on second note I'm quite certain it's the Plains b/c it says 10% SIG. I think they started listed the probs with the D2 within the last year and I think they'll just list the highest probabilities that exist. I wonder if they'll ever go to a format for D2 like they do with D1 where they have a probability graphic for each hazard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 Holy crap...talk about a right moving supercell. That swath of UD moving into NJ is insane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 The NAM is quite concerning for south-central NY down into central/eastern PA. Really going to end up coming down to some mesoscale features tomorrow but the threat is legit. Still looking decent for some large hailers across SNE during the later evening into the overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 Let’s get a ton of lightning strikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 The timing of this has sped up so fast this is no longer overnight for us...more like evening lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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