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MAY 20, 2019 High Risk


OKStorm
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Just now, mikeosborne38 said:

Today proves how extremely rare days like April 27 2011 really are. Most outbreak days have some limiting factors unlike that day. Good news for the immediate OKC area.

Way too early to say that.  It's not even 5pm CDT.

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I’m going to preach patience with this set-up. Things are really starting organize across the high risk area. Yes, we don’t have widespread warm sector development well ahead of the dry line, but we don’t need that to have several long-track violent tornadoes today. 

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Just now, CryHavoc said:

Way too early to say that.  It's not even 5pm CDT.

Considering the fact that there had already been several EF-5s on 4-27 by this time, I think this statement is well justified.

 

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the OK cells look like crap..as another poster mentioned they run north into that boundary..spin up for a bit...then become elevated//also look "grungy"..they need to turn more right 

 

the next cell looks to go in Northern kingfisher county 

 

no sign of development in the open warm sector besides the dry line back in western TX

 

 

 

 

 

 

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It's pretty obvious this isn't going to verify as a high risk. Cold air is killing everything along the boundary and not much got going in the warm sector. Yeah its not even 5 pm but there's just not many storms in a favorable environment and no sign that anything new will develop further east before this all lines out. 

Will there be a few more tornadoes? Yes I'd say that's likely. Are we going to see a swarm of large/violent tornadoes across a good chunk of Oklahoma. I don't think so at this point. 

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Just now, jpeters3 said:

Considering the fact that there had already been several EF-5s on 4-27 by this time, I think this statement is well justified.

 

Sure, if you're comparing today directly to 4/27 as a measure of a "bust" scenario.

If we're literally talking about the largest outbreak in history as the bar today needed to clear -- that's flatly ridiculous.  It is not time for people to relax or let their guard down.  Only takes one big cell to send death tolls skyrocketing.

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1 minute ago, DanLarsen34 said:

I’m going to preach patience with this set-up. Things are really starting organize across the high risk area. Yes, we don’t have widespread warm sector development well ahead of the dry line, but we don’t need that to have several long-track violent tornadoes today. 

Its not over, but its not what we thought it was going to be 5 hours ago. SPC has already admitted in an MD that the SC OK high risk is not looking like it will verify.

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We're only around half time in this outbreak, if that, so would not be writing any obits for it yet.

Storm outflow at LBB (airport is nne of city) was gusting to 55 knots southeast at the same time (2121z) as severe warned radar echoes about 5 miles east and 8 miles south of location, telling me that the storm to the south was increasing in strength then. As others stated earlier, dry line is encroaching on storm zone here and south now, expect some strong development next three or four hours. Eventually I think it morphs into a massive MCS with possible squall line for central and eastern OK throughout the night. That would mean less severe but more widespread damage than a tornadic scenario but that would develop first in western OK. Clinton may be close to the eventual peak of tornadic activity before the MCS phase begins. I will predict developing MCS passage at OKC at or about 03z (10 pm CDT). Clinton south to about Hobart OK max tornadic risk about 00z to 01z (7-8 p.m. CDT). 

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1 minute ago, CryHavoc said:

Sure, if you're comparing today directly to 4/27 as a measure of a "bust" scenario.

If we're literally talking about the largest outbreak in history as the bar today needed to clear -- that's flatly ridiculous.  It is not time for people to relax or let their guard down.  Only takes one big cell to send death tolls skyrocketing.

Sorry I was the person that made that statement about 4/27. I made it out of relief as I lived through that day and was worried for Oklahoma when people compared today directly to 4/27. Hopefully everything trends away from what was shown this morning.

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2 minutes ago, MUWX said:

Its not over, but its not what we thought it was going to be 5 hours ago. SPC has already admitted in an MD that the SC OK high risk is not looking like it will verify.

  SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED AWAY FROM A POSSIBLE SCENARIO   OF DISCRETE STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL OK. THE MOST   PROBABLE SCENARIO INVOLVES SEVERAL TORNADIC SUPERCELLS LIKELY MOVING   ACROSS SOUTHWEST OK AND APPROACHING THE I-40 CORRIDOR WEST OF THE   OKC METRO.

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We've made it to 86 in Waurika in far southern Oklahoma and not a radar return within 100 miles. If it hasn't gone up yet, it ain't gonna happen in the open warm sector past what is already around. Which is basically one storm near Hollis at this point. 

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KFOR just did a long cone, Childress/Gould cell would get to OKC metro area around 8:00CDT. That is the one to watch, IMO.

Not to take the conversation back to OT, but you can say that the high risk will bust without saying that there isn't a chance one storm comes along that leaves a trail of destruction. I think everyone knows it only takes one, but this event certaintly seems like it won't meet some expectations. 

 

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