JC-CT Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 Just now, cheese007 said: Is that two tornadoes or just a stupid large multi-vortex? Right - it is two tornadoes but formed out of the same cell. One circulation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 Just now, Natester said: KFOR live feed just went down. Still going for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 Mesoscale Discussion 0705 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019 Areas affected...southwest and central OK Concerning...Tornado Watch 199... Valid 202046Z - 202145Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 199 continues. SUMMARY...Tornado potential will likely increase across southwest OK during the next few hours. DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows several quasi-discrete supercells over the eastern TX Panhandle into the Low Rolling Plains. Additional storm development is possible over southwest OK ahead of the supercells located to the west. It is less clear regarding convective initiation and supercell development farther east towards the I-44/I-35 corridors (besides the Logan County supercell). Surface analysis shows lower 70s surface dewpoints with temperatures ranging from the lower 80s over southwest OK to the middle 70s near OKC. A composite front/outflow-reinforced boundary is located across the eastern TX Panhandle arcing to the east-northeast to near Stillwater, OK. South of this boundary, a very unstable to extremely unstable airmass will support intense updraft development with existing storms. KTLX VAD data shows a larger hodograph compared to KFDR's VAD (0-1km SRH of 300 and 200 m2/s2, respectively). Short-term model guidance has trended away from a possible scenario of discrete storm development over south-central OK. The most probable scenario involves several tornadic supercells likely moving across southwest OK and approaching the I-40 corridor west of the OKC metro. ..Smith.. 05/20/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 Man that motion is fast. It wants to put down a big tornado Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 Confirmed tornado outside of Childress, TX Quote At 334 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located 7 miles southwest of Kirkland, or 10 miles southeast of Childress, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vman722 Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 Parent circulation on the KFOR live stream is absolutely massive. Back on the ground now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 2 minutes ago, Chinook said: Confirmed tornado outside of Childress, TX At 350 the TOG is near Kirkland and moving NE at 40mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestTennWX Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 Almost a doughnut hole appearance with this circulation....impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calderon Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 Storm still has two separate tornadoes on the ground simultaneously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 Twins on the ground on kfor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upper Level LOL Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 Twins by Crescent, good grief 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 Good thing there's not much there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 Confirmed tornado near Lovell, Oklahoma in NW Logan county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 Nick Busby is teed up nicely on the Childress storm at Livestormchasing.com. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 Just now, kvegas-wx said: Nick Busby is teed up nicely on the Childress storm at Livestormchasing.com. That one looks like it is still producing two separate areas of rotation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 Lubbock and Crosby counties in TX warned for 80mph winds and quarter size hail... Texas Tech and city of Lubbock also included in warning locations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 Insane mesocyclone feeding these multiple tornadoes. Chasers nightmare I bet with all these separate circulations dropping down. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 2 minutes ago, JC-CT said: That one looks like it is still producing two separate areas of rotation Good call... new tornado warning mentions exactly that BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Lubbock TX 359 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019 The National Weather Service in Lubbock Texas has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Eastern Childress County in the Panhandle of Texas... * Until 430 PM CDT. * At 358 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located 6 miles southwest of Kirkland, or 7 miles southeast of Childress, moving northeast at 30 mph. A second circulation was located near the Red River approaching the eastern Childress county line. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * Locations impacted include... Childress and Kirkland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 Crescent cell is gonna be choked by WF soon. Childress cell has potential but is struggling and is continuing to struggle producing. KFDR’s VAD is not great with 0-1 km being kinda meh. Lapse rates may also be preventing development in open warm sector. Wellington cell has improved the past few scans so we’ll see with that. Unless we’re discrete later on when dynamics improve some, I don’t see 45 verifying Edit:Watch out if a storm is able to go up and sustain itself in open warm sector Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 These guys are nuts. Driving on dirt side roads that are already wet under heavy rain bands. If there is something real coming out of that Childress storm there's going to be a lot of folks stuck in the mud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Amarillo TX 359 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019 TXC087-202115- /O.CON.KAMA.TO.W.0037.000000T0000Z-190520T2115Z/ Collingsworth TX- 359 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM CDT FOR NORTHEASTERN COLLINGSWORTH COUNTY... At 359 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located 9 miles east of Lutie, or 13 miles northeast of Wellington, moving northeast at 40 mph. HAZARD...Tornado and golf ball size hail. SOURCE...Weather spotters reported a rotating wall cloud. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. Locations impacted include... Lutie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 2 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said: Crescent cell is gonna be choked by WF soon. Childress cell has potential but is struggling and is continuing to struggle producing. KFDR’s VAD is not great with 0-1 km being kinda meh. Lapse rates may also be preventing development in open warm sector. Wellington cell has improved the past few scans so we’ll see with that. Unless we’re discrete later on when dynamics improve some, I don’t see 45 verifying Yeah, definitely doesn't look like it is going to verify at this point. We shall see what the next few hours bring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 My theory as to why nothing is happening on the warm front: Temperatures are just way too cold to the north, in the upper 40s to near 50. Storm motions are too perpendicular and nothing can sustain itself for long once it crosses the boundary. Meanwhile, storms in the open warm sector are struggling and the volatile tornado environment there isn't being realized. Cumulus field is all but gone across this area so I don't see surface based convection developing here. Basically the only remaining area for major tornado threat I see is gonna be the storms entering SW Oklahoma. LLJ is weaker here than further east but will strengthen some over the next couple hours. But how long will they stay discrete is the question here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CryHavoc Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 I think something was wrong with your image, Here is the latest temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 I copied it from the mesonet at the right time. Must have been a glitch somewhere. My fault Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 Correct my memory. Didn't some of the models predict the most explosive anticipated development to be around 00z and thereafter this evening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Misstertwister Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 55 minutes ago, pbrussell said: Keep an eye on the Blair ok storm at kfdr... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 That complex S of Lubbock could become a contender as it moves NE. After exploding into a mess awhile ago it slowly looks to be organizing into a line of sup's. It's right along the dry line and doesn't look as of now if anything is going to pop out ahead to disrupt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 14 minutes ago, StormChazer said: I think something was wrong with your image, Here is the latest temps. Wow. A decent chunk of the 45% tor has temps under 60... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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