OUGrad05 Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 1 minute ago, MUWX said: Have 60% tornado odds ever been issued? Could we see them with the 3:00 update? Yes they have 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 Just now, MUWX said: Have 60% tornado odds ever been issued? Could we see them with the 3:00 update? Yes, back on 4/7/2006 in Tennessee. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 Crosby County, TX storm starting to show signs of rotation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Crosby County, TX storm starting to show signs of rotation. Spotter reporting wall cloud on this cell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 3 minutes ago, Natester said: Yes, back on 4/7/2006 in Tennessee. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tornado_outbreak_of_April_6–8,_2006 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calderon Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 Already several afternoon/evening flights in/out of OKC are cancelled, and expect many more to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 TWC just said second time in history there's been a watch this high end, all 95's. Jesus.Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 I dont think this is worthy of a 60%. This is going to be a significant, possibly historic event, but people need to keep their expectations in check. I've seen comparisons to 4/27/11 on twitter and elsewhere and that's simply not what this is. We aren't gonna get 10 violent tornadoes today. I think 1-2 violent tornadoes is certainly within the realm of possibility and that something as high end as 4/26/91 or 5/3/99 is in the cards if the potential in this event is totally maximized, but something more like 5/24/11 seems like a reasonable outcome at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 I would not want to be in Paducah, TX right now. Anywhere along Hwy 287 is likely to see some action shortly. Cells maturing quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 Keep in mind it's only 2pm CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 Quote SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX 201 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2019 TXC195-233-357-393-201945- /O.CON.KAMA.SV.W.0121.000000T0000Z-190520T1945Z/ HUTCHINSON TX-HANSFORD TX-ROBERTS TX-OCHILTREE TX- 201 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2019 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 PM CDT FOR HUTCHINSON...SOUTHEASTERN HANSFORD...NORTHERN ROBERTS AND SOUTHWESTERN OCHILTREE COUNTIES... AT 200 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MORSE, OR 18 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SPEARMAN, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. HAZARD...TENNIS BALL SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS, SIDING, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... SPEARMAN, STINNETT, GRUVER, SANFORD, MORSE, WAKA AND PRINGLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 Quote SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 201 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2019 TXC107-125-153-345-201945- /O.CON.KLUB.SV.W.0128.000000T0000Z-190520T1945Z/ DICKENS TX-FLOYD TX-CROSBY TX-MOTLEY TX- 201 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2019 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 PM CDT FOR NORTHWESTERN DICKENS...EASTERN FLOYD...NORTHEASTERN CROSBY AND SOUTHERN MOTLEY COUNTIES... AT 200 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF CROSBYTON, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO ROOFS, SIDING, AND TREES. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... CROSBYTON, MATADOR, RALLS, DOUGHERTY, AFTON, MCADOO AND ROARING SPRINGS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 Just now, hlcater said: I dont think this is worthy of a 60%. This is going to be a significant, possibly historic event, but people need to keep their expectations in check. I've seen comparisons to 4/27/11 on twitter and elsewhere and that's simply not what this is. We aren't gonna get 10 violent tornadoes today. I think 1-2 violent tornadoes is certainly within the realm of possibility and that something as high end as 4/26/91 or 5/3/99 is in the cards if the potential in this event is totally maximized, but I think something more like 5/24/11 is a reasonable outcome at this point. The one 60% tornado risk in history spawned 47 tornadoes, which is pretty much exactly average for all high risks. I don't remember if that was considered a mini-bust or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pbrussell Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 Friendly reminder to keep discussion on individual storms locations precise as possible given how many there will be. Radar sites perhaps as well. The crosbyton cell at lbb looks like it’ll need a tor warning soon 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 18z OUN sounding is just wow..the hodograph looks like the STL arch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 5 minutes ago, pbrussell said: Friendly reminder to keep discussion on individual storms locations precise as possible given how many there will be. The crosbyton cell looks like it’ll need a tor warning soon Tornado Tech chase team is on that cell now over at Severestudios.com. EDIT - I mean REALLY on it. Heading north up TX70 and look to run smack into it if it drops. Great position for the first intercept of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 Cell near Reydon trying to go too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pbrussell Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 1 minute ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Cell near Reydon trying to go too. Definitely looks suspect. Shame it’s in such a radar hole Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 Meso for the TX panhandle: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2019/md0704.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pbrussell Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 7 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said: Tornado Tech chase team is on that cell now over at Severestudios.com. EDIT - I mean REALLY on it. Heading north up TX70 and look to run smack into it if it drops. Great position for the first intercept of the day. Link for the lazy. https://www.severestudios.com/storm-chasers/tornado.tech.html pity the stream is in such high contrast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 For validation, what does 60% tornado risk mean? If it means 60% chance of a tornado occurring in the watch area, that seems too low (but other products indicate a 95% chance which also seems 5% too low ). If it means 60% of the watch area will experience a tornado, that seems statistically too high, depending on what is meant by "experience a tornado" -- if it means 60% of the watch zone will be converted to tornado warning boxes then perhaps that comes close to reality here (and we all know that within any given tornado warning box there will likely be a 10-20 per cent conversion to tornado conditions along an actual track within that box). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KSWx Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 Crosbyton cell needs a tor warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 The National Weather Service in Lubbock Texas has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Northeastern Dickens County in northwestern Texas... Northwestern King County in northwestern Texas... Eastern Motley County in northwestern Texas... Southern Cottle County in northwestern Texas... * Until 315 PM CDT. * At 214 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 8 miles southwest of Dumont, or 13 miles northeast of Dickens, moving northeast at 35 mph. This storm is exhibiting some low level rotation east northeast of Dickens and near McAdoo. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to roofs, siding, and trees. * Locations impacted include... Paducah, Grow, Dumont, Finney, Delwin, Afton and Chalk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 Crosbyton is really tightening up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weunice Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 Just now, Roger Smith said: For validation, what does 60% tornado risk mean? If it means 60% chance of a tornado occurring in the watch area, that seems too low (but other products indicate a 95% chance which also seems 5% too low ). If it means 60% of the watch area will experience a tornado, that seems statistically too high, depending on what is meant by "experience a tornado" -- if it means 60% of the watch zone will be converted to tornado warning boxes then perhaps that comes close to reality here (and we all know that within any given tornado warning box there will likely be a 10-20 per cent conversion to tornado conditions along an actual track within that box). 60% chance of a tornado happening within 25 miles of a given point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 Just now, KSWx said: Crosbyton cell needs a tor warning. Check both the Crosbyton cell and the cell ~20 mi east of Roaring Springs on SRV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 Storm just NW of Dicken, TX needs a TOR soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustMePatrick Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pbrussell Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 That’s a lot of supercells... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now