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MAY 20, 2019 High Risk


OKStorm
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1227 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

The National Weather Service in Amarillo has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Eastern Oldham County in the Panhandle of Texas...
  Western Potter County in the Panhandle of Texas...

* Until 115 PM CDT.

* At 1227 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 6 miles north of
  Vega, moving northeast at 30 mph.

  HAZARD...Two inch hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Minor damage to roofs, siding, and trees is possible.
           People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail
           damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles.

* Locations impacted include...
  Boys Ranch and Valley De Oro.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Remain alert for a possible tornado! Tornadoes can develop quickly
from severe thunderstorms. If you spot a tornado go at once into the
basement or small central room in a sturdy structure.

This is a dangerous storm. Prepare immediately for large destructive
hail capable of producing significant damage. People outside should
move to shelter inside a strong building, and stay away from windows.
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In anticipation of what is looking to be a very active day, just a friendly reminder to keep things focused/on topic as much as possible.  Also, rapid fire posting is likely to occur later and if you notice that you have posted something that was already posted, you can help by deleting your post.

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WWUS40 KWNS 201734

WWP7 

 

TORNADO WATCH PROBABILITIES FOR WT 0197

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1232 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2019

 

WT 0197 PDS

PROBABILITY TABLE:

PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES                        : >95%

PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /EF2-EF5/ TORNADOES       :  90%

PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS              :  80%

PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS          :  20%

PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS              : >95%

PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES          : >95%

PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : >95%

 

&&

ATTRIBUTE TABLE:

MAX HAIL /INCHES/                            : 4.0

MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/               : 60

MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/                        : 600

MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 24035

PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION             : YES

 

&&

FOR A COMPLETE GEOGRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF THE WATCH AND

WATCH EXPIRATION INFORMATION SEE WOUS64 FOR WOU7.

 

$$

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1 minute ago, eureka22 said:

WWUS40 KWNS 201734

WWP7 

 

TORNADO WATCH PROBABILITIES FOR WT 0197

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1232 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2019

 

WT 0197 PDS

PROBABILITY TABLE:

PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES                        : >95%

PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /EF2-EF5/ TORNADOES       :  90%

PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS              :  80%

PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS          :  20%

PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS              : >95%

PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES          : >95%

PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : >95%

 

&&

ATTRIBUTE TABLE:

MAX HAIL /INCHES/                            : 4.0

MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/               : 60

MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/                        : 600

MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 24035

PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION             : YES

 

&&

FOR A COMPLETE GEOGRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF THE WATCH AND

WATCH EXPIRATION INFORMATION SEE WOUS64 FOR WOU7.

$$

Impressive probabilities....similar to 4/27/11.

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1 minute ago, Drz1111 said:

Mean storm motion 240 at 35kts?  Spicy, and consistent with modeling for the last day or so.  Not much margin for error chasing today.

Let’s not forget the flash flooding that will likely make many roads impassable. And it’s gonna be busy. And the storms are gonna move fast. 

I know the pros are pros but today is anything but safe

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5 minutes ago, Natester said:

Initiation east of Cooperton, Oklahoma.  Lets see if they blow up or if they fizzle out.  They show up as little tiny showers on KFDR.

Was about to mention that... NWS was putting out significant weather advisories for the areas of thunderstorm initiation.  Also mentioning other areas of initiation near Fitzhugh and near Gene Autry, off to the east.

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