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MAY 20, 2019 High Risk


OKStorm
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1 minute ago, MUWX said:

MD out for it

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0715.html

 

Mesoscale Discussion 0715
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1106 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

   Areas affected...far northeast Oklahoma...far northwest
   Arkansas...far southwest Missouri

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 200...

   Valid 210406Z - 210430Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 200 continues.

   SUMMARY...Significant tornado potential exists with a storm in
   Delaware County, Oklahoma.

   DISCUSSION...A supercell initially over Mayes/Cherokee Counties in
   Oklahoma favorably interacted with an outflow boundary and generated
   an intense mesocyclone, with experimental guidance suggestive of a
   significant tornado in the area.  Strong rotation continues on
   radar, and significant tornado potential will exist with this storm
   as it migrates east-northeastward through Delaware County, OK;
   Benton County, AR; and McDonald County, MO through 05Z as long as it
   can remain rooted near the outflow boundary.

   ..Cook.. 05/21/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...
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Meanwhile... a flash flood emergency was just issued by NWS Tulsa

 

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1114 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR HOMINY...PAWNEE...BARTLESVILLE
SKIATOOK...DEWEY...

The National Weather Service in Tulsa has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Southern Osage County in northeastern Oklahoma...
  Washington County in northeastern Oklahoma...
  Pawnee County in northeastern Oklahoma...
  Northwestern Tulsa County in northeastern Oklahoma...

* Until 515 AM CDT Tuesday.

* At 1110 PM CDT, emergency management reported numerous closed
  roadways, water rescues, and homes being evacuated. Four to six
  inches of rain have fallen, and additional heavy rainfall will
  move into the area soon. Widespread flash flooding is already
  occurring.

  THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR HOMINY...PAWNEE...BARTLESVILLE
  SKIATOOK...AND DEWEY. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.
  SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW!

* Some locations that may experience flooding include...
  Bartlesville...                   Pawhuska...
  Pawnee...                         Skiatook...
  Hominy...                         Dewey...
  Cleveland...                      Fairfax...
  Barnsdall...                      Ramona...
  Wynona...                         Ochelata...
  Jennings...                       Ralston...
  Avant...                          Westport...
  Vera...                           Osage...
  Hallett...                        Blackburn...

Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are possible in the
warned area.
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1140 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

The National Weather Service in Lubbock Texas has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Eastern Kent County in northwestern Texas...
  Southeastern Dickens County in northwestern Texas...
  Southern King County in northwestern Texas...
  Stonewall County in northwestern Texas...

* Until 1230 AM CDT.

* At 1139 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
  extending from 6 miles west of Jayton to 8 miles northwest of
  Rotan, moving northeast at 55 mph.

  These are very dangerous storms.

  HAZARD...80 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Mobile homes will be heavily damaged. Expect
           considerable damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles.
           Extensive tree damage and power outages are likely.

* Locations impacted include...
  Aspermont, Jayton, Girard, Peacock, Old Glory and Swenson.
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Just now, yoda said:

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1140 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

The National Weather Service in Lubbock Texas has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Eastern Kent County in northwestern Texas...
  Southeastern Dickens County in northwestern Texas...
  Southern King County in northwestern Texas...
  Stonewall County in northwestern Texas...

* Until 1230 AM CDT.

* At 1139 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
  extending from 6 miles west of Jayton to 8 miles northwest of
  Rotan, moving northeast at 55 mph.

  These are very dangerous storms.

  HAZARD...80 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Mobile homes will be heavily damaged. Expect
           considerable damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles.
           Extensive tree damage and power outages are likely.

* Locations impacted include...
  Aspermont, Jayton, Girard, Peacock, Old Glory and Swenson.

That area has been pounded in the last 12 hours.

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6 hours ago, bjc3395 said:

This event is wildly fascinating to me. Extreme CAPE/shear combo and largely busted today. We have much to learn. 

Yes and no...yes b/c we will always be learning but in terms of yesterday I don't think it could have (or should have been handled any differently). While this bares true for any type of weather event, IMO this is moreso for severe wx, but mesoscale features and short-term evolution are extremely critical for these types of events. There are plenty of meteorologists who have presented some ideas as to why we didn't see a much larger number of tornadoes (and strong tornadoes). Keep in mind none of these thoughts are mine...I am presenting what I have read, but temperatures around 10,000 to 20,000' ended up slightly warmer, an increase in H7 frotogenesis helped nudge a push of warmer air here into OK. Forcing may have slacked a bit more.

I know "busts" hurt the credibility of forecasts, but the main goal for forecasters is protecting life and property. In a case leading up to yesterday there is no other way to handle that. You want to give people as much information as possible to protect their life...people are too easy to cry and complain, but those who went through a terrifying situation are likely to be extremely thankful. 

What doesn't help the situation is the people who run around social media and cry bust after every weather event. Severe weather happened yesterday...and quite a bit...and in the highlighted area. People should be thankful we didn't see numerous strong-to-violent tornadoes and there aren't casualties (I have not heard of any...and hope there haven't been). 

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1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

Yes and no...yes b/c we will always be learning but in terms of yesterday I don't think it could have (or should have been handled any differently). While this bares true for any type of weather event, IMO this is moreso for severe wx, but mesoscale features and short-term evolution are extremely critical for these types of events. There are plenty of meteorologists who have presented some ideas as to why we didn't see a much larger number of tornadoes (and strong tornadoes). Keep in mind none of these thoughts are mine...I am presenting what I have read, but temperatures around 10,000 to 20,000' ended up slightly warmer, an increase in H7 frotogenesis helped nudge a push of warmer air here into OK. Forcing may have slacked a bit more.

I know "busts" hurt the credibility of forecasts, but the main goal for forecasters is protecting life and property. In a case leading up to yesterday there is no other way to handle that. You want to give people as much information as possible to protect their life...people are too easy to cry and complain, but those who went through a terrifying situation are likely to be extremely thankful. 

What doesn't help the situation is the people who run around social media and cry bust after every weather event. Severe weather happened yesterday...and quite a bit...and in the highlighted area. People should be thankful we didn't see numerous strong-to-violent tornadoes and there aren't casualties (I have not heard of any...and hope there haven't been). 

Well said...

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4 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

Yes and no...yes b/c we will always be learning but in terms of yesterday I don't think it could have (or should have been handled any differently). While this bares true for any type of weather event, IMO this is moreso for severe wx, but mesoscale features and short-term evolution are extremely critical for these types of events. There are plenty of meteorologists who have presented some ideas as to why we didn't see a much larger number of tornadoes (and strong tornadoes). Keep in mind none of these thoughts are mine...I am presenting what I have read, but temperatures around 10,000 to 20,000' ended up slightly warmer, an increase in H7 frotogenesis helped nudge a push of warmer air here into OK. Forcing may have slacked a bit more.

I know "busts" hurt the credibility of forecasts, but the main goal for forecasters is protecting life and property. In a case leading up to yesterday there is no other way to handle that. You want to give people as much information as possible to protect their life...people are too easy to cry and complain, but those who went through a terrifying situation are likely to be extremely thankful. 

What doesn't help the situation is the people who run around social media and cry bust after every weather event. Severe weather happened yesterday...and quite a bit...and in the highlighted area. People should be thankful we didn't see numerous strong-to-violent tornadoes and there aren't casualties (I have not heard of any...and hope there haven't been). 

Well articulated.

What I'd like to know for future threads like this is the rationale people have on these threads of saying "bust" before 5pm on a high risk day.

What is to be gained?  Why is it necessary to immediately jump all over a "bust" call?  Most of us reading the threads are scientists or have at least an active interest in the science of weather.  We can openly acknowledge difficult/problematic forecasts when the event is over -- by coming to consensus based on the parameters merited.

This isn't a sporting event.  It's a scientific pursuit of knowledge.  Saying an event "busts" isn't even a scientific statement -- it contains absolutely no furthering of information or exchange of curiosity.  It's just a token word designed to... I don't know, make the person saying it feel cool because they're calling out the SPC as an authority?

Furthermore, bust calls tend to kill conservation about the actual events taking place.  At the very least it never promotes healthy discussion in these threads.  Rushing to bust calls, in my humble opinion, serves absolutely no one.

Additionally, I am extremely concerned about the pressure this kind of thing can put on forecasters to be less aggressive in these calls.  Protection of lives must remain a priority.

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57 minutes ago, CryHavoc said:

Well articulated.

What I'd like to know for future threads like this is the rationale people have on these threads of saying "bust" before 5pm on a high risk day.

What is to be gained?  Why is it necessary to immediately jump all over a "bust" call?  Most of us reading the threads are scientists or have at least an active interest in the science of weather.  We can openly acknowledge difficult/problematic forecasts when the event is over -- by coming to consensus based on the parameters merited.

This isn't a sporting event.  It's a scientific pursuit of knowledge.  Saying an event "busts" isn't even a scientific statement -- it contains absolutely no furthering of information or exchange of curiosity.  It's just a token word designed to... I don't know, make the person saying it feel cool because they're calling out the SPC as an authority?

Furthermore, bust calls tend to kill conservation about the actual events taking place.  At the very least it never promotes healthy discussion in these threads.  Rushing to bust calls, in my humble opinion, serves absolutely no one.

Additionally, I am extremely concerned about the pressure this kind of thing can put on forecasters to be less aggressive in these calls.  Protection of lives must remain a priority.

I'll answer for myself. I have family in Midwest City and I only mentioned a bust because I was happy it was trending that way. I lived through 4/27 and don't wish that on anyone.  Like Dr Shepherd mentions in the article the current 24/7 news cycle along with social media and the search for likes and clicks contribute to some accusations of sensationalism.  Also, a good question posed in that article is are words like "dangerous"and "catastrophic"being over used?  In hindsight maybe mentioning 4/27 was a mistake as that day stands in a category by itself, even among high risk outbreak days.  People were expecting multiple violent tornadoes down at the same time like 4/27. Most lay person's don't read forecast discussions, etc to know possible limiting factors.

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