Jim Marusak Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 3 minutes ago, Misstertwister said: Where’s the boundary? Me thinks NW OK?edmond area is north of the boundary. It’s fricking cold out when I took my dogs for a walk in Deer creek going based off the obs, I would say Swisher County Tx > Altus OK > Minco OK > downtown OKC > Cushing OK > Nowata Conty OK with a first guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 got to make sue the boundary doesn't get pushed back north by the LLJ. ....and back into those storms.... seen it happen before 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brianc33710 Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 Okay. Yeah, this is my first post (yeah, a "new" guy), but I've been a member for a while. Was today the first "45%" contour since 27 April 2011? Having bookmarked that thread years ago, I don't think the SPC ever even went with 60% that day, although it was justified. The SPC was probably too busy by 20z to do the 60%. And, yes, I remember PDS TW 235 (everything >95%) as well. And, yes, I've tried not to ask questions already answered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 Been kinda watching this area but it appears some convection is trying to get going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 11 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Ughhh I thought coming here would be a “refresh” over the twitter junk, but alas there is some here too. Why are people always so quick to yell “bust”? Just b/c things haven’t “lived up” to whatever expectations were thought to have occurred by now. Forcing looks to continue to slowly improve (this has not increased as quickly as it may have appeared to do so) over the next several hours which should help. There certainly are some flags (such as poor low-level lapse rates, outflow, and it also appears maybe best sfc vorticity May be a bit displaced from greatest low-level CAPE) but this is far from over. The threat for significant tornadoes (with a large populated area still at risk) looms and now that it is getting darker that becomes scarier. Nocturnal jet ramping up a bit is only going to further enhance hodographs. Exactly. They/models/we/everyone missed something earlier, to be learned later, but there's still a volatile atmosphere out there waiting to be tapped as darkness ensues. There's nothing scarier than an EF anything coming at you in the dark, been there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazieman Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 Haven't been here in a while - but something strange passed over Wichita and was very pronounced on both BV 0.5 KICT and TICH. Best described as a "ripple" starting at 23:20Z to present approached from the southwest and ran over the city producing some interesting wind effects. Anyone have an idea of what it was? I've never seen anything like it, strongly resembled a still shot of a bullet going through the air. Edit: NWS Wichita calling it a wake low event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zinski1990 Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 Give it up folks. It's a bust. It's all over. It's just a crap line now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iowahawkeyedave Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 2 minutes ago, zinski1990 said: Give it up folks. It's a bust. It's all over. It's just a crap line now You again? *yawn* You've stated how you feel many times, give it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ensō Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 1 minute ago, Crazieman said: Haven't been here in a while - but something strange passed over Wichita and was very pronounced on both BV 0.5 KICT and TICH. Best described as a "ripple" starting at 23:20Z to present approached from the southwest and ran over the city producing some interesting wind effects. Anyone have an idea of what it was? I've never seen anything like it, strongly resembled a still shot of a bullet going through the air. Sounds like you're talking about gravity waves. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 1 minute ago, zinski1990 said: Give it up folks. It's a bust. It's all over. It's just a crap line now Then why are you still here in the thread? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 7 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said: got to make sue the boundary doesn't get pushed back north by the LLJ. ....and back into those storms.... seen it happen before Great point. Also been watching sfc chart and low over SE NM...depending on how that evolves that is something that could help nudge the boundary north. Was looking at theta-e trends on mesoanalysis and it seems like there was some indications for a slight nudge north of some higher theta-e Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 Just now, weatherwiz said: Great point. Also been watching sfc chart and low over SE NM...depending on how that evolves that is something that could help nudge the boundary north. Was looking at theta-e trends on mesoanalysis and it seems like there was some indications for a slight nudge north of some higher theta-e Speaking of that low i was looking at the models from 12-24 hours ago and none of them had handled the surface low evolution well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 A little odd they haven't started tornado warnings again on the Foard City cell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Been kinda watching this area but it appears some convection is trying to get going. There has been stuff like that in that area for the last two hours. Hasn’t been able to do anything more than a shower. Could change, but seems unlikely at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 Just now, zinski1990 said: Give it up folks. It's a bust. It's all over. It's just a crap line now i'm not calling it a bust by any means. was it in the storm mode everyone was hoping for in the OKC metro and SE OK? no, too tropical below 650 in the warm sector. but Jackstraw is right in that we're getting to the time in the evening and into the night where the near-surface layer isn't as important and the LLJ kicks in. And from that 21Z sounding I pointed out earlier for OUN, there's still enough kinematics and instability aloft to do a lot. It will be interesting to see the 00Z soundings from OUN, MAF, and FWD as well as any special soundings if they were to put them up out at ABI and maybe SPS to get a better pic of the air masses moving in for the overnight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherextreme Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 Reminds me of my local chick fil a drive-thru Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 10 minutes ago, zinski1990 said: Give it up folks. It's a bust. It's all over. It's just a crap line now Take the rest of the night off 1 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeosborne38 Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 It looks like OKC is transitioning to mainly a flooding threat with maybe some embedded tornadoes in the line later tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 0100Z outlook is over ten minutes late now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 Folks, from an objective perspecitve, this is a bust. There are few scenarios whete the high risk will verify. No signs of CI in the warm sector and a robust MCS that is being overrun by an OFB. Just calling a spade a spade. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 4 minutes ago, jojo762 said: 0100Z outlook is over ten minutes late now. I wonder what the deal is... can’t be that much to figure out at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazieman Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 Just now, MUWX said: I wonder what the deal is... can’t be that much to figure out at this point. "They want our blood... what do we tell them?" 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 33 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Been kinda watching this area but it appears some convection is trying to get going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 0z soundings still show a pretty decent warm tongue around 700...and quite apparent on mesoanalysis. There is a pretty decent MLJ streak developing across SW TX. I wonder if stronger forcing will help to overcome the cap a bit...doesn’t look like there will be any cooling though tough to tell from mobile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 southward surging ofb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 Just now, OSUmetstud said: Yeah was just looking at soundings and saw some tweets. Explains it quite well. That what makes this quite unsettling too...if that can erode a bit (which I guess can’t entirely be ruled out given some increase in forcing)won’t take much to get some to fire...though CAMS not impressed at all really with that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 SPC (Broyles) maintains a high risk area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 Just now, jojo762 said: SPC (Broyles) maintains a high risk area... All based on one storm. Not sure I get it, but it doesn’t really matter at this point 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 new cell rapidly getting going just SW of Tulsa...in the open warm sector for a while T-storm warned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 Someone's probably getting 10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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