TellicoWx Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 2 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said: And now the convo is just one short leap away from saying that its a bust because people didnt die and things werent destroyed. Meaning CNNs headlines werent lived up to....."catastrophic". If we had a day full of EF5 tornadoes and the only thing that was torn up was hayfields, nobody would care except for those here that understand the magnitude of the event. We are a headline driven society that thrives on negative news. Not a good combo for an aggressive storm forecast. SPC determines bust/verified off total severe reports (including non tornadic), max rating is also took into account. Death toll has zero to do with it, all the dates above had way fewer reports than this event. One example of a high risk verifying is a derecheo event with minimal tornadoes. This event isn't over and probably not too far off from verification based on total reports alone. Headlines like that and no major damage is what drives complacency (and fuels some of the insane comments I've read here). 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 4 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said: on the flip side the storms in western TX still look discrete with hooks ..the 22z HRRR is lost Janetjanet, we are discussing a bust here. Take the storm talk somewhere else. 3 2 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeosborne38 Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 8 minutes ago, Natester said: This. Not to mention that they often report that towns hit by tornadoes had no warning when in reality they had plenty of warning. Me thinks they do it just for ratings. So true. Someone earlier this morning posted a radar shot from the supercells from 4/27 and lined it up below a simulated HRRR radar shot showing multiple supercells. News stations and other people only communicate the risk but not the limiting factors that could mitigate the risk. I know the chief meteorologist for KOCO (Payne I believe) spoke about things that could temper the risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 I can't remember the last time a high risk busted like this. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: Janetjanet, we are discussing a bust here. Take the storm talk somewhere else. please don't ban me but BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 653 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2019 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LUBBOCK TEXAS HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... EAST CENTRAL DICKENS COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN TEXAS... WESTERN KING COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN TEXAS... * UNTIL 745 PM CDT. * AT 652 PM CDT, A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 13 MILES SOUTH OF DUMONT, OR 14 MILES EAST OF DICKENS, MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. TRAVEL WEST OF GUTHRIE ALONG HIGHWAY 114 IS HIGHLY DISCOURAGED. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
METALSTORM Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 Perhaps changes to the models in recent years are affecting their performance. Hard to believe this is not panning out as predicted with all the ingredients in place. Watch tomorrow overperform in the Mid MS Valley with "only" an enhanced risk in place simply because Mother Nature hates the weather community. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 Meanwhile... KLUB just said travel is highly discouraged west of Guthrie due to a large and very dangerous tornado... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 And I agree with the latest disco... Mesoscale Discussion 0710 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0550 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019 Areas affected...Southeast Texas Panhandle...Eastern Texas South Plains...Portions of Permian Basin Concerning...Tornado Watch 197... Valid 202250Z - 210045Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 197 continues. SUMMARY...The tornado threat will continue within WW 197. Given the strength of the low-level shear expected, tornadoes will be possible with all storm modes. However, significant tornadoes will remain possible with any storm that can remain discrete. DISCUSSION...Several discrete/semi-discrete supercell thunderstorms are ongoing across WW 197. So far, tornadic activity has been limited by the number of storms ongoing in relative close proximity. Nevertheless, very strong deep-layer shear (60-70 kts) and strong low-level veering ahead of these storms, particularly in northwest Texas and into southwest Oklahoma, will continue to support strong low-level rotation. As the low-level jet continues to increase this evening, the tornado threat should also increase. The threat for strong tornadoes will generally be modulated by storm mode. Any storm that can remain discrete will continue to pose a threat for a significant tornado. However, given the very strong low-level shear, tornadoes will remain possible within linear segments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanLarsen34 Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 Would y’all stop complaining and focus on the storms we have ongoing? For gods sake, we have a large and extremely dangerous tornado report on the HP cell in the high risk area in W TX, and two tornado warnings ongoing further south across the moderate risk too. This set-up may literally still verify on the southern side of the risk area this evening. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zinski1990 Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 Just now, Natester said: I can't remember the last time a high risk busted like this. It happens. I remember when I began following weather in the late 90s and early 2000s a few busts. Like some where the cap never broke or something. This one is just big because the hype and expectations around it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 TRAVEL WEST OF GUTHRIE ALONG HIGHWAY 114 IS HIGHLY DISCOURAGED. Could they not get a couple of cops to block the road? The cell has been developing for about an hour. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 2 minutes ago, yoda said: Meanwhile... KLUB just said travel is highly discouraged west of Guthrie due to a large and very dangerous tornado... It seems quite possible that a significant tornado of at least EF1 strength tracked directly over US-82 west of Guthrie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 10 minutes ago, hlcater said: I absolutely think the poor low level lapse rates and deep saturation had a lot to do with it. None of the updrafts were as explosive as expected, evidenced by the weak cores on even the established convection. Yes and yes. This was especially disruptive in the first few hours of the event, when discrete convection was initially expected to blossom in the warm sector. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanLarsen34 Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 We got a textbook one in progress south of Midland. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 Before the new TW was issued... I admit I got a quick laugh at the bolded because of SW reference and reading it as Admiral Ackbar Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Lubbock TX 649 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019 TXC125-210000- /O.CON.KLUB.TO.W.0024.000000T0000Z-190521T0000Z/ Dickens TX- 649 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT FOR CENTRAL DICKENS COUNTY... At 646 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located 11 miles east of Dickens, moving east at 50 mph. Motorist along Texas Highway 114 between Dickens and Guthrie should take evasive action as there are very few road options in that area. Travel west of Guthrie on 114 is highly discouraged. HAZARD...Tornado and golf ball size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. Locations impacted include... Spur, Dickens and Afton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 Confirmed TOG 19 S Greenwood re Glasscock/Midland county storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 Yea guys, can we chill with the talk of busts until the day is actually over? Lol 2 of 4 discrete sups now producing large tors.Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 703 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2019 TXC125-269-210045- /O.CON.KLUB.TO.W.0025.000000T0000Z-190521T0045Z/ DICKENS TX-KING TX- 703 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2019 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM CDT FOR EAST CENTRAL DICKENS AND WESTERN KING COUNTIES... AT 702 PM CDT, A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 7 MILES WEST OF GUTHRIE, MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. TRAVEL WEST OF GUTHRIE ON HIGHWAY 114 IS HIGHLY DISCOURAGED. RESIDENTS OF GUTHRIE AND THE FOUR SIXES RANCH SHOULD PREPARE TO TAKE ACTION FOR A POSSIBLE TORNADO. edit: update now just a funnel cloud Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 Not sure about the bolded... prepare to take action? More like... be in your shelter Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Lubbock TX 703 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019 TXC125-269-210045- /O.CON.KLUB.TO.W.0025.000000T0000Z-190521T0045Z/ Dickens TX-King TX- 703 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM CDT FOR EAST CENTRAL DICKENS AND WESTERN KING COUNTIES... At 702 PM CDT, a large and extremely dangerous tornado was located 7 miles west of Guthrie, moving east at 40 mph. Travel west of Guthrie on Highway 114 is highly discouraged. Residents of Guthrie and the Four Sixes Ranch should prepare to take action for a possible tornado. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 Just now, yoda said: Not sure about the bolded... prepare to take action? More like... be in your shelter Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Lubbock TX 703 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019 TXC125-269-210045- /O.CON.KLUB.TO.W.0025.000000T0000Z-190521T0045Z/ Dickens TX-King TX- 703 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM CDT FOR EAST CENTRAL DICKENS AND WESTERN KING COUNTIES... At 702 PM CDT, a large and extremely dangerous tornado was located 7 miles west of Guthrie, moving east at 40 mph. Travel west of Guthrie on Highway 114 is highly discouraged. Residents of Guthrie and the Four Sixes Ranch should prepare to take action for a possible tornado. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible. Locations impacted include... Guthrie and Finney. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous and potentially deadly tornado is developing. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. Heavy rainfall may hide this tornado. Do not wait to see or hear the tornado. TAKE COVER NOW! More like. Get your butts underground NOW!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherextreme Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 9 minutes ago, SmokeEater said: Yea guys, can we chill with the talk of busts until the day is actually over? Lol 2 of 4 discrete sups now producing large tors. Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk Definitely not over NWS Norman ✔@NWSNorman · 58m Replying to @NWSNorman Given the lack of large scale forcing for pressure rises and the strong low-level jet the front will have a hard time making anything more than very slow progress, even with the support of outflow. NWS NormanVerified account @NWSNorman 59m59 minutes ago More This leaves all areas south of the boundary in an exceptionally favorable environment for tornadoes into tonight. We still believe considerable severe weather is yet to come and areas in the warm sector should remain vigilant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeosborne38 Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 What's frustrating is many Oklahoman residents will be pissed that this event was hyped and to then nothing happened while schools and businesses we're closed. We weather geeks know mesoscale things can make or break an event. However the average person will become complacent and point to events like this to not take potential dangerous weather seriously. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 Just now, mikeosborne38 said: What's frustrating is many Oklahoman residents will be pissed that this event was hyped and to then nothing happened while schools and businesses we're closed. We weather geeks know mesoscale things can make or break an event. However the average person will become complacent and point to events like this to not take potential dangerous weather seriously. That is very true. Of course, if a tornado hits their house, they won't be complacent anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 Wouldn't entirely be surprised if SPC kept a MDT risk of significant tornadoes in place near and east/northeast of these supercells in Texas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 Ughhh I thought coming here would be a “refresh” over the twitter junk, but alas there is some here too. Why are people always so quick to yell “bust”? Just b/c things haven’t “lived up” to whatever expectations were thought to have occurred by now. Forcing looks to continue to slowly improve (this has not increased as quickly as it may have appeared to do so) over the next several hours which should help. There certainly are some flags (such as poor low-level lapse rates, outflow, and it also appears maybe best sfc vorticity May be a bit displaced from greatest low-level CAPE) but this is far from over. The threat for significant tornadoes (with a large populated area still at risk) looms and now that it is getting darker that becomes scarier. Nocturnal jet ramping up a bit is only going to further enhance hodographs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 -worst bust since hurricane florence- 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Misstertwister Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 9 minutes ago, weatherextreme said: Definitely not over NWS Norman ✔@NWSNorman · 58m Replying to @NWSNorman Given the lack of large scale forcing for pressure rises and the strong low-level jet the front will have a hard time making anything more than very slow progress, even with the support of outflow. NWS NormanVerified account @NWSNorman 59m59 minutes ago More This leaves all areas south of the boundary in an exceptionally favorable environment for tornadoes into tonight. We still believe considerable severe weather is yet to come and areas in the warm sector should remain vigilant. Where’s the boundary? Me thinks NW OK?edmond area is north of the boundary. It’s fricking cold out when I took my dogs for a walk in Deer creek 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 This looks like a textbook discrete supercell with a tornado. (E-SE of Midland-Odessa) Hopefully not going over a populated area at this time?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 Hasnt been a TOR warning in OK for quite awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 5 minutes ago, Misstertwister said: Where’s the boundary? Me thinks NW OK?edmond area is north of the boundary. It’s fricking cold out when I took my dogs for a walk in Deer creek its right in the center of OKC now.shows up on doppler Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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