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MAY 20, 2019 High Risk


OKStorm
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2 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

And now the convo is just one short leap away from saying that its a bust because people didnt die and things werent destroyed.  Meaning CNNs headlines werent lived up to....."catastrophic".  If we had a day full of EF5 tornadoes and the only thing that was torn up was hayfields, nobody would care except for those here that understand the magnitude of the event.  We are a headline driven society that thrives on negative news.  Not a good combo for an aggressive storm forecast.

SPC determines bust/verified off total severe reports (including non tornadic), max rating is also took into account. Death toll has zero to do with it, all the dates above had way fewer reports than this event. One example of a high risk verifying is a derecheo event with minimal tornadoes. This event isn't over and probably not too far off from verification based on total reports alone. 

 

Headlines like that and no major damage is what drives complacency (and fuels some of the insane comments I've read here). 

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8 minutes ago, Natester said:

This.  Not to mention that they often report that towns hit by tornadoes had no warning when in reality they had plenty of warning.  Me thinks they do it just for ratings.

So true. Someone earlier this morning posted a radar shot from the supercells from 4/27 and lined it up below a simulated HRRR radar shot showing multiple supercells. News stations and other people only communicate the risk but not the limiting factors that could mitigate the risk. I know the chief meteorologist for KOCO (Payne I believe) spoke about things that could temper the risk.

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1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

Janetjanet, we are discussing a bust here.  Take the storm talk somewhere else.  

please don't ban me but

 

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX  
653 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2019  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LUBBOCK TEXAS HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  EAST CENTRAL DICKENS COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN TEXAS...  
  WESTERN KING COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN TEXAS...  
  
* UNTIL 745 PM CDT.  
      
* AT 652 PM CDT, A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED  
  13 MILES SOUTH OF DUMONT, OR 14 MILES EAST OF DICKENS, MOVING EAST   
  AT 30 MPH.  TRAVEL WEST OF GUTHRIE ALONG HIGHWAY 114 IS HIGHLY   
  DISCOURAGED.

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Perhaps changes to the models in recent years are affecting their performance. Hard to believe this is not panning out as predicted with all the ingredients in place. Watch tomorrow overperform in the Mid MS Valley with "only" an enhanced risk in place simply because Mother Nature hates the weather community.

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And I agree with the latest disco...

Mesoscale Discussion 0710
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0550 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

   Areas affected...Southeast Texas Panhandle...Eastern Texas South
   Plains...Portions of Permian Basin

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 197...

   Valid 202250Z - 210045Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 197 continues.

   SUMMARY...The tornado threat will continue within WW 197. Given the
   strength of the low-level shear expected, tornadoes will be possible
   with all storm modes. However, significant tornadoes will remain
   possible with any storm that can remain discrete.

   DISCUSSION...Several discrete/semi-discrete supercell thunderstorms
   are ongoing across WW 197. So far, tornadic activity has been
   limited by the number of storms ongoing in relative close proximity.
   Nevertheless, very strong deep-layer shear (60-70 kts) and strong
   low-level veering ahead of these storms, particularly in northwest
   Texas and into southwest Oklahoma, will continue to support strong
   low-level rotation. As the low-level jet continues to increase this
   evening, the tornado threat should also increase. The threat for
   strong tornadoes will generally be modulated by storm mode. Any
   storm that can remain discrete will continue to pose a threat for a
   significant tornado. However, given the very strong low-level shear,
   tornadoes will remain possible within linear segments.
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Would y’all stop complaining and focus on the storms we have ongoing?

 

For gods sake, we have a large and extremely dangerous tornado report on the HP cell in the high risk area in W TX, and two tornado warnings ongoing further south across the moderate risk too. This set-up may literally still verify on the southern side of the risk area this evening. 

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Just now, Natester said:

I can't remember the last time a high risk busted like this.

It happens. I remember when I began following weather in the late 90s and early 2000s a few busts. Like some where the cap never broke or something. This one is just big because the hype and expectations around it

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2 minutes ago, yoda said:

Meanwhile... KLUB just said travel is highly discouraged west of Guthrie due to a large and very dangerous tornado...

 

It seems quite possible that a significant tornado of at least EF1 strength tracked directly over US-82 west of Guthrie

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10 minutes ago, hlcater said:

I absolutely think the poor low level lapse rates and deep saturation had a lot to do with it. None of the updrafts were as explosive as expected, evidenced by the weak cores on even the established convection.

Yes and yes. This was especially disruptive in the first few hours of the event, when discrete convection was initially expected to blossom in the warm sector. 

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Before the new TW was issued... I admit I got a quick laugh at the bolded because of SW reference and reading it as Admiral Ackbar

 

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
649 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

TXC125-210000-
/O.CON.KLUB.TO.W.0024.000000T0000Z-190521T0000Z/
Dickens TX-
649 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT FOR CENTRAL
DICKENS COUNTY...

At 646 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located 11 miles east of Dickens, moving east at 50 mph.
Motorist along Texas Highway 114 between Dickens and Guthrie should
take evasive action as there are very few road options in that area.
Travel west of Guthrie on 114 is highly discouraged.

HAZARD...Tornado and golf ball size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is
         likely.

Locations impacted include...
Spur, Dickens and Afton.
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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX  
703 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2019  
  
TXC125-269-210045-  
/O.CON.KLUB.TO.W.0025.000000T0000Z-190521T0045Z/  
DICKENS TX-KING TX-  
703 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2019  
  
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM CDT FOR EAST  
CENTRAL DICKENS AND WESTERN KING COUNTIES...  
      
AT 702 PM CDT, A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 7   
MILES WEST OF GUTHRIE, MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.  TRAVEL WEST OF   
GUTHRIE ON HIGHWAY 114 IS HIGHLY DISCOURAGED.  RESIDENTS OF GUTHRIE   
AND THE FOUR SIXES RANCH SHOULD PREPARE TO TAKE ACTION FOR A   
POSSIBLE TORNADO. 

edit: update now just a funnel cloud 

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Not sure about the bolded... prepare to take action?  More like... be in your shelter

 

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
703 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

TXC125-269-210045-
/O.CON.KLUB.TO.W.0025.000000T0000Z-190521T0045Z/
Dickens TX-King TX-
703 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM CDT FOR EAST
CENTRAL DICKENS AND WESTERN KING COUNTIES...

At 702 PM CDT, a large and extremely dangerous tornado was located 7
miles west of Guthrie, moving east at 40 mph.  Travel west of
Guthrie on Highway 114 is highly discouraged.  Residents of Guthrie
and the Four Sixes Ranch should prepare to take action for a
possible tornado.

This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may
         be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes
         will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes,
         businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction
         is possible.


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Just now, yoda said:

Not sure about the bolded... prepare to take action?  More like... be in your shelter

 


Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
703 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

TXC125-269-210045-
/O.CON.KLUB.TO.W.0025.000000T0000Z-190521T0045Z/
Dickens TX-King TX-
703 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM CDT FOR EAST
CENTRAL DICKENS AND WESTERN KING COUNTIES...

At 702 PM CDT, a large and extremely dangerous tornado was located 7
miles west of Guthrie, moving east at 40 mph.  Travel west of
Guthrie on Highway 114 is highly discouraged.  Residents of Guthrie
and the Four Sixes Ranch should prepare to take action for a
possible tornado.

This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may
         be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes
         will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes,
         businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction
         is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Guthrie and Finney.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous and potentially deadly
tornado is developing. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move to
a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy
building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in
a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.

Heavy rainfall may hide this tornado. Do not wait to see or hear the
tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!

More like. Get your butts underground NOW!!!!!

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9 minutes ago, SmokeEater said:

Yea guys, can we chill with the talk of busts until the day is actually over? Lol 2 of 4 discrete sups now producing large tors.

Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk
 

Definitely not over

 

uu6ck8lmf0k8qm98skyc_normal.png

Given the lack of large scale forcing for pressure rises and the strong low-level jet the front will have a hard time making anything more than very slow progress, even with the support of outflow.

 

This leaves all areas south of the boundary in an exceptionally favorable environment for tornadoes into tonight. We still believe considerable severe weather is yet to come and areas in the warm sector should remain vigilant.

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What's frustrating is many Oklahoman residents will be pissed that this event was hyped and to then nothing happened while schools and businesses we're closed. We weather geeks know mesoscale things can make or break an event. However the average person will become complacent and point to events like this to not take potential dangerous weather seriously.

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Just now, mikeosborne38 said:

What's frustrating is many Oklahoman residents will be pissed that this event was hyped and to then nothing happened while schools and businesses we're closed. We weather geeks know mesoscale things can make or break an event. However the average person will become complacent and point to events like this to not take potential dangerous weather seriously.

That is very true.  Of course, if a tornado hits their house, they won't be complacent anymore.

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Ughhh I thought coming here would be a “refresh” over the twitter junk, but alas there is some here too. Why are people always so quick to yell “bust”? 

Just b/c things haven’t “lived up” to whatever expectations were thought to have occurred by now. 

Forcing looks to continue to slowly improve (this has not increased as quickly as it may have appeared to do so) over the next several hours which should help. There certainly are some flags (such as poor low-level lapse rates, outflow, and it also appears maybe best sfc vorticity May be a bit displaced from greatest low-level CAPE) but this is far from over. 

The threat for significant tornadoes (with a large populated area still at risk) looms and now that it is getting darker that becomes scarier. 

Nocturnal jet ramping up a bit is only going to further enhance hodographs. 

 

 

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9 minutes ago, weatherextreme said:

Definitely not over

 

uu6ck8lmf0k8qm98skyc_normal.png

Given the lack of large scale forcing for pressure rises and the strong low-level jet the front will have a hard time making anything more than very slow progress, even with the support of outflow.

 

This leaves all areas south of the boundary in an exceptionally favorable environment for tornadoes into tonight. We still believe considerable severe weather is yet to come and areas in the warm sector should remain vigilant.

Where’s the boundary? Me thinks NW OK?edmond area is north of the boundary. It’s fricking cold out when I took my dogs for a walk in Deer creek

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