MAY 20, 2019 High Risk

[DanLarsen34]

More likely scenario for that storm is the southern one takes over.

[Santa Clause]

Cells popping in C Ok.

[nwohweather]

Bit of a let down today. Storm mode hasn’t been great and nothing is getting going in the warm sector

[Hoosier]

38 minutes ago, Indystorm said:

A high risk has to verify with a greater number of tornadoes within a certain geographical area and that number is larger than slight, enhanced, or moderate. We will not achieve that today.  I was surprised by the 95% across the board and immediately thought of 4/27.  I guess SPC was thinking there would be more tornadoes along the retreating WF and in the warm sector itself than what we have seen prior to the development of storms coming off the dryline for this evening.  Yet in terms of damage and destruction, it does only take one storm in a populated area to be truly memorable.  But that does not verify high risk.

I suppose I will chime in on this.  While a 4/27/2011 level event doesn't appear like it will happen, it is important to keep in mind that high risk events are not created equal.  Things like 4/3/1974 and 4/27/2011 almost deserve their own category above high risk.  There's a lot of events over the years that haven't risen to that extreme level but still verify as high risk.  A more run of the mill high risk (oxymoron I know) outcome still can't be ruled out imo, but we'll see what happens throughout the evening.

[Misstertwister]

Is there cold front crashing from NW to SE in Oklahoma?  

[DanLarsen34]

Just now, nwohweather said:

Bit of a let down today. Storm mode hasn’t been great and nothing is getting going in the warm sector

 

1 minute ago, Wmsptwx said:

Cells popping in C Ok.

Don’t discount these cells firing in central Oklahoma. If they don’t crash north too fast, we might get some discrete cells out of these. Seems like the better lapse rates are arriving. 

[janetjanet998]

4 minutes ago, Misstertwister said:

Is there cold front crashing from NW to SE in Oklahoma?  

Yes it seems..being helped by outflows...seems like the boundary is now in the NW side of the Metro...

[Santa Clause]

I'm watching storm merger as that cell works closer to the metro.

[Indystorm]

2 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I suppose I will chime in on this.  While a 4/27/2011 level event doesn't appear like it will happen, it is important to keep in mind that high risk events are not created equal.  Things like 4/3/1974 and 4/27/2011 almost deserve their own category above high risk.  There's a lot of events over the years that haven't risen to that extreme level but still verify as high risk.  A more run of the mill high risk (oxymoron I know) outcome still can't be ruled out imo, but we'll see what happens throughout the evening.

Good points on the classic outbreaks Hoosier.  Remember the days before SPC had an enhanced risk category and persons thought that additional category would make it tougher to achieve high risk?  I would assume that even SPC has modified its definition over the years.  Could still be a very interesting and challenging evening ahead of us now.

[zinski1990]

I just honestly consider this as a bust. Seems like the better storms just fire up briefly right near the boundary then get sucked up into the training line of crap. Then you see blips in the warm sector that never materialize. Even the dry line storms are pretty much a line. Maybe one of the biggest busts I've ever seen. Now did I expect today to be a carbon copy of 4/27? Definitelty not. I would have been shocked that's a once in generation event. Something like 5/3/99, 4/26/91, 5/10/10, or 5/24/11 yes

[MUWX]

There is some serious wish casting going on in this thread 

[janetjanet998]

11 minutes ago, DanLarsen34 said:

More likely scenario for that storm is the southern one takes over.

I think both are now outflow dominated ...I can see the gust front on KFDR and both may be north of that boundary 

[cheese007]

Only 10 tor reports so far per SPC

[jojo762]

Southward sagging OFB going to likely be the final blow to what seemed like a potentially high-end setup... Obviously still ample potential for a couple of strong tornadoes, but a high risk type event seems very unlikely now.

[cheese007]

Just now, jojo762 said:

Southward sagging OFB going to likely be the final blow to what seemed like a potentially high-end setup... Obviously still ample potential for a couple of strong tornadoes, but a high risk type event seems very unlikely now.

Considering expectations this could easily end up being one of the biggest, if not the biggest, forecasting busts ever by the SPC. We'll see in the next few hours 

[zinski1990]

Just now, cheese007 said:

Considering expectations this could easily end up being one of the biggest, if not the biggest, forecasting busts ever by the SPC. We'll see in the next few hours 

It will be. I've never seen a bust this bad ever. Seems like nowadays the enhanced risk are the new high risk days. Models and the SPC really sucked for this one

[janetjanet998]

2 minutes ago, cheese007 said:

Considering expectations this could easily end up being one of the biggest, if not the biggest, forecasting busts ever by the SPC. We'll see in the next few hours 

nah....I remember old school high risk CAP bust days when literally almost nothing happened 

[hlcater]

Just now, zinski1990 said:

It will be. I've never seen a bust this bad ever. Seems like nowadays the enhanced risk are the new high risk days. Models and the SPC really sucked for this one

We get it. No need to beat the dead horse here.

[wendy]

On kfor.com right now, large barrel-shaped tornado heading right toward Mangum.

[Brick Tamland]

Still seems like a dangerous situation, but I guess there have not been as many tornadoes or big tornadoes as expected based on what the SPC said. Maybe you can call that a bust, but it has still produced several tornadoes. 

I have to say, for my backyard,  the SPC has busted a lot since we had the tornado outbreak in April 2011. Now when we are under any kind of watch we don't hardly even get a storm, let alone anything severe. We get more severe storms and tornadoes when we don't even have a watch,  like what happened here last Monday.

[Santa Clause]

Is OKC metro in clear now?

[DanLarsen34]

Only thing that’s going to verify a high risk are if some of these cells in Texas get going, though one of the best looking ones right now is on the edge of the moderate area from earlier. 

The northern part of it in Oklahoma looks like it may be largely done.

[MattPetrulli]

To be honest, I don’t get blaming SPC when about 90% of the wx community and most reliable models were behind a major tornado outbreak today 

[DanLarsen34]

Just now, DanLarsen34 said:

Only thing that’s going to verify a high risk are if some of these cells in Texas get going, though one of the best looking ones right now is on the edge of the moderate area from earlier. 

The northern part of it in Oklahoma looks like it may be largely done.

These are the cells i’m referring to 

[WhiteoutWX]

Cold air/outflow generated by this mornings storms wins out. That and the relative lack of warm sector development where the best environment was today were the killers. It happens. But just shows that there is still a lot more to severe forecasting than looking at pretty composite parameters. Thermo/kinematic environment are only one piece as storm mode/number of storms once again proves to be just as important as it has shown to be in past busts.

And yes, this will indeed be a bust. Some people here seem to be confused or forgot that SPC verification of convective outlooks is strictly based on number of reports and has nothing to do with strength of tornadoes, impacts, etc. 

[iowahawkeyedave]

Based on the soundings, and all the models, it seems like the SPC made the right call with what they did.  It was and is, as it's still ongoing, a high ceiling potential event, but also had a low floor.  Would it have been better to forecast an enhanced and then get a major tornado outbreak?  People would be blasting SPC for that too.

[Brick Tamland]

2 minutes ago, zinski1990 said:

It will be. I've never seen a bust this bad ever. Seems like nowadays the enhanced risk are the new high risk days. Models and the SPC really sucked for this one

I think we have too many risk categories anyway. No need for five. Slight and marginal, and enhanced and moderate are too similar in definition.  Just have slight, moderate,  and high.

[cheese007]

1 minute ago, Brick Tamland said:

Still seems like a dangerous situation, but I guess there have not been as many tornadoes or big tornadoes as expected based on what the SPC said. Maybe you can call that a bust, but it has still produced several tornadoes. 

 

When March 3rd of this year had 4x as many tornadoes and was only an "enhanced" risk then as of right now it would be. This is textbook post-2014 chasing season so far

[wendy]

Huge wedge TOG on kfor.com just to west of Magnum.

[janetjanet998]

TX

 

ATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX  
627 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2019  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LUBBOCK TEXAS HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  CENTRAL DICKENS COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN TEXAS...  
  
* UNTIL 700 PM CDT.  
      
* AT 627 PM CDT, A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED   
  OVER SPUR, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.  A SECOND STRONG ROTATION   
  WAS LOCATED 4 MILES SOUTH OF DICKENS.  
  
  THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!  
  
  HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.