Calderon Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 2 minutes ago, Upper Level LOL said: The PDS tor watch had higher probs than the 2011 Alabama outbreak. The comparison is far from "foolish". Probs are actually the same as the infamous watch from 2011. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 2 minutes ago, Upper Level LOL said: The PDS tor watch had higher probs than the 2011 Alabama outbreak. The comparison is far from "foolish". They have the same probs. 95 is the highest it goes. But comparing to 4-27-11 is not wise. That's a rare kind of outbreak 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 I am not sure what has to happen to say it's living up to the hype. Seems there have been a lot of tornado warned storms already. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 Still time and unfortunately as 5/3/99 showed, it only takes one late evening storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 Just now, Brick Tamland said: I am not sure what has to happen to say it's living up to the hype. Seems there have been a lot of tornado warned storms already. several EF3s and at least one 4 or 5? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 Bob Packs feed looks ominous. Estelline TX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 Looking like a constructive cell merger on the sole remaining discrete supercell near hollis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 1 minute ago, Wmsptwx said: Still time and unfortunately as 5/3/99 showed, it only takes one late evening storm. SW OK cell which was on its last breaths earlier now showing healthy signs of tornado formation soon if it survives this merger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 Cells in W OK starting to look better as well and become more separate. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 How hard is it to remember the age old adage: “Every setup is different”? To those expecting 4/27/11 all over again, you’re going to be disappointed. Yes, the watch probs are the same, but again, refer to age old adage. To those alluding that today is done and the high risk is a bust, you may very well be eating some crow in 3-5 hours as well. Some details glossed over in the candy colored HRRR runs and textbook soundings that have been revealed by mesoanalysis: low level lapse rates in the open warm sector right now really aren’t that impressive. Certainly plays some role. Also, with the storms in west TX, the SW to NE motion has put storms parallel to the 0-6km mean shear vector (Quincy V. pointed this out on Twitter if you follow him), resulting in more linear storm appearances. I think as this activity moves east/northeast, there may be some potential for a few discrete cells to evolve. Lower 9-11km SR Winds and a change in the 0-6km shear vectors seem to support this. Could nothing happen? Sure. And I’m fine with eating crow from this post as well. But far to early to call at 5pm CDT, IMO. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 A high risk has to verify with a greater number of tornadoes within a certain geographical area and that number is larger than slight, enhanced, or moderate. We will not achieve that today. I was surprised by the 95% across the board and immediately thought of 4/27. I guess SPC was thinking there would be more tornadoes along the retreating WF and in the warm sector itself than what we have seen prior to the development of storms coming off the dryline for this evening. Yet in terms of damage and destruction, it does only take one storm in a populated area to be truly memorable. But that does not verify high risk. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CryHavoc Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 Just now, Wmsptwx said: Cells in W OK starting to look better as well and become more separate. Was just going to post that. They look healthier and more discrete already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 KFOR has a nice rotating wall cloud SW of Perry, OK. edit: was OTG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 An addendum to my last post. As of the last couple mesoanalysis runs lapse rates over C OK are improving. If that Hollis cell makes a right turn, it could certainly explode into something big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanLarsen34 Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 It’s only a matter of time before this one puts down a monster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 21 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: These posts are unreal, atmosphere is set and all it takes is one or two to verify and that is very possible. To compare to Alabama 2011 is foolish, that's literally the gold standard of all time. what is that supposed to mean. (it only takes one or two?). are you saying if one strong tornado hits a city rather then one county it somehow verifies? there is no discrete storms right now over Southern OK..HRRR models from earlier had discrete storms there by now in addition to the current ones west the storms over Northern OK are nothing but heavy rain training outflow crap,,and this outflow seems to be sagging SE,,the best shot is the lead storms west of Tulsa if the can turn more east and moving along the boundary instead of to the left of it the latest 21z HRRR merges what supercell there are into lines within 3 hours That isn't to say there won't still be a decent amount of tornadoes some strong.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 First legit looking tornado of the day near Mangum now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICEHOCEY77 Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 https://www.koco.com/nowcast# live stream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 First legit looking tornado of the day near Mangum now.Going multivortex.Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 A few little pop-ups going up within the warm sector in N TX to S OK. Probably worth watching, especially the one north of Paris, TX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 1 minute ago, SmokeEater said: Going multivortex. Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk Here comes our long-track tornado producing supercell... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 Just now, jojo762 said: Here comes our long-track tornado producing supercell... PDS for Mangum. live on KFOR. looks violent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 Just now, jojo762 said: Here comes our long-track tornado producing supercell... on the ground now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 better look reflectivity and velocity from KFDR radar, tornado now on the ground, Mangum, OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherextreme Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 22 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: Still time and unfortunately as 5/3/99 showed, it only takes one late evening storm. I remember about a few years ago there was a hyped system that didn't pan out during the day/early evening, but it did during the night. There was also multiple people calling it a bust before the event was fully over. (Those guys pretty much looked like fools afterwards). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 New Tornado Watch for extreme E OK, W and C Arkansas, SE KS and SW Missouri until 1am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 TOR also OTG in Perry/Orlando, OK with occasional power flashes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 Confirmed TOG by spotters in Perry, OK... moving NE at 60mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICEHOCEY77 Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 1/4 mile wedge, wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 Mangum, OK 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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