weatherwiz Posted May 20, 2019 Author Share Posted May 20, 2019 1 minute ago, JC-CT said: Maybe they were relying on wind-based crop rotation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 25 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Jesus...this is about as scary as a sounding can get. I don't think I've ever seen a supercell parameter that high. Looks at those helicity values...especially effective inflow and the storm motion vectors. In some figurative sense ( ... if not 'literal' in some regards ) that region is already in a "holographic SC construct". A virtual rotation that is merely unsubstantiated in real type physics because it is merely missing ( presently ) any z-coordinate motion. Just a matter of suspending any kind of parcel rise through the z-coordinate and that parcel is drilled into a potential ... immediately closes off and rotates. Potential vorticity at the super meso scale is so extreme that it becomes actual vorticity when the UVM in cores takes place. I love this statement from SPC: "... especially mid-afternoon into evening, a few of the best-organized supercells may reach an equilibrium with their already very favorable mesoscale environments long enough to sustainwide, long-track tornadoes. .." I read a paper once years ago about the infamous "Tri-State" tornado that ripped ( adjusted to contemporary economics) over a billion dollars in damage from SE Missouri through southern Il and into India - 1925 I think it was. It's been reanalyzed to EOF5 ... The paper discussed something similar re that 'equilibirum' ...and though I am not sure the forecaster means the same thing .. .it sounds similar. What the paper discussed is when the supercell comes into kinematic sinc with the vorticity fields of the super meso scale ...which is also synced up more concomitantly with the large synoptic evolution. That's a different breed of super cell altogether - ... the syncing means they're probably in part establishing their own inflow jet ...as opposed to merely intersecting one and then outpacing it ...a time within which they may general more ephemeral tornadic cellular states. These "super tors" can outlast their smaller brother types until the synoptic evolution no longer becomes as favorable and/or something is encountered sufficiently strong enough to break the syncing. There's probably no exact boundary between these types of super cells either... like everything ... there's hybrids and quasi structures that carry on with shared or dual characteristics. But many long tracak super cells probably carry some sort of heritage with this syncing phenomenon. It's really both amazing in its own rite, ...as well as text book for any enthusiasts and early Mets: powdered boom ... just add water Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 20, 2019 Author Share Posted May 20, 2019 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: In some figurative sense ( ... if not 'literal' in some regards ) that region is already in a "holographic SC construct". A virtual rotation that is merely unsubstantiated in real type physics because it is merely missing ( presently ) any z-coordinate motion. Just a matter of suspending any kind of parcel rise through the z-coordinate and that parcel is drilled into a potential ... immediately closes off and rotates. Potential vorticity at the super meso scale is so extreme that it becomes actual vorticity when the UVM in cores takes place. I love this statement from SPC: "... especially mid-afternoon into evening, a few of the best-organized supercells may reach an equilibrium with their already very favorable mesoscale environments long enough to sustainwide, long-track tornadoes. .." I read a paper once years ago about the infamous "Tri-State" tornado that ripped ( adjusted to contemporary economics) over a billion dollars in damage from SE Missouri through southern Il and into India - 1925 I think it was. It's been reanalyzed to EOF5 ... The paper discussed something similar re that 'equilibirum' ...and though I am not sure the forecaster means the same thing .. .it sounds similar. What the paper discussed is when the supercell comes into kinematic sinc with the vorticity fields of the super meso scale ...which is also synced up more concomitantly with the large synoptic evolution. That's a different breed of super cell altogether - ... the syncing means they're probably in part establishing their own inflow jet ...as opposed to merely intersecting one and then outpacing it ...a time within which they may general more ephemeral tornadic cellular states. This "super tors" can outlast those smaller types until the synoptic evolution no longer becomes as favorable and/or something is encountered sufficiently strong enough to break the syncing through those multiple scales. There's probably no exact boundary between these types of super cells either... like everything ... there's hybrids and quasi structures that carry on with shared or dual characteristics. But many long tracak super cells probably carry some sort of heritage with this syncing phenomenon. It's really both amazing in its own rite, ...as well as text book for any enthusiasts and early Mets: powdered boom ... just add water This is a super interesting post,,,it was this aspect of meteorology/physics I wish I understood. I will try and find such paper as I would love to read it myself (even though much of the math will be above my head...well at least I have an understanding of what makes up the equation...just have no clue how to solve or use them in real life lol). I would have to think though when it comes to these values (speaking in terms for parameters) there has to be a limit of what can be met and achieved...and it comes down to balancing of forces and what not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 Basically no difference between the T/Td at MHT and FDR right now. Oh well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: In some figurative sense ( ... if not 'literal' in some regards ) that region is already in a "holographic SC construct". A virtual rotation that is merely unsubstantiated in real type physics because it is merely missing ( presently ) any z-coordinate motion. Just a matter of suspending any kind of parcel rise through the z-coordinate and that parcel is drilled into a potential ... immediately closes off and rotates. Potential vorticity at the super meso scale is so extreme that it becomes actual vorticity when the UVM in cores takes place. I love this statement from SPC: "... especially mid-afternoon into evening, a few of the best-organized supercells may reach an equilibrium with their already very favorable mesoscale environments long enough to sustainwide, long-track tornadoes. .." I read a paper once years ago about the infamous "Tri-State" tornado that ripped ( adjusted to contemporary economics) over a billion dollars in damage from SE Missouri through southern Il and into India - 1925 I think it was. It's been reanalyzed to EOF5 ... The paper discussed something similar re that 'equilibirum' ...and though I am not sure the forecaster means the same thing .. .it sounds similar. What the paper discussed is when the supercell comes into kinematic sinc with the vorticity fields of the super meso scale ...which is also synced up more concomitantly with the large synoptic evolution. That's a different breed of super cell altogether - ... the syncing means they're probably in part establishing their own inflow jet ...as opposed to merely intersecting one and then outpacing it ...a time within which they may general more ephemeral tornadic cellular states. These "super tors" can outlast their smaller brother types until the synoptic evolution no longer becomes as favorable and/or something is encountered sufficiently strong enough to break the syncing. There's probably no exact boundary between these types of super cells either... like everything ... there's hybrids and quasi structures that carry on with shared or dual characteristics. But many long tracak super cells probably carry some sort of heritage with this syncing phenomenon. It's really both amazing in its own rite, ...as well as text book for any enthusiasts and early Mets: powdered boom ... just add water I would imagine the Tuscaloosa 2011 supercell that rode all the way in VA before dying, putting down a whole family of tornadoes in the process, might be an example of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 20, 2019 Author Share Posted May 20, 2019 They did up the tornado probs to 45%...good God. Thought that could happen based off that HREF chart I posted. Good lord Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 13 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: They did up the tornado probs to 45%...good God. Thought that could happen based off that HREF chart I posted. Good lord SPC is drilling down on their threat area within the larger threat area. That first MCD definitely highlights one of their zones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 20, 2019 Author Share Posted May 20, 2019 6 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: SPC is drilling down on their threat area within the larger threat area. That first MCD definitely highlights one of their zones. the overlap of parameters within that highlighted area is jaw dropping. Some of the strongest overlap of ingredients I can recall...especially with regards just to how extreme the numbers are Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 20, 2019 Author Share Posted May 20, 2019 PDS watch incoming shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: PDS watch incoming shortly. I love that SPC is geeking out over HCRs in the discussion graphic. As anxious as they are, this is what they live to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 With the clearing it would appear areas East of the CT river best chance for storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 20, 2019 Author Share Posted May 20, 2019 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: I love that SPC is geeking out over HCRs in the discussion graphic. As anxious as they are, this is what they live to do. How often do you see that term used in a discussion lol. But yeah...I think this is what every convective forecaster dreams of..in temrs of forecasting. Obviously not the potential outcome (I had to throw that line in there just to eliminate any posts directed towards "how can you wish death and destruction blah blah) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 20, 2019 Author Share Posted May 20, 2019 2 minutes ago, Modfan said: With the clearing it would appear areas East of the CT river best chance for storms? ehhh...the clearing certainly helped with building CAPE but with the best forcing so far north I doubt it really makes a difference...in terms of coverage that is. It may enhance the potential for whatever develops to be on the stronger side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 5 minutes ago, Modfan said: With the clearing it would appear areas East of the CT river best chance for storms? I'm thinking more like N TX/SW OK, but we have to let it play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 20, 2019 Author Share Posted May 20, 2019 ughhh the SPC site went down. Guessing they're taking cover early...smart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 @weatherwiz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 Surprised Wiz hasn't been focused on the MCD for SNE... 40% chance of a watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 20, 2019 Author Share Posted May 20, 2019 3 minutes ago, JC-CT said: @weatherwiz Yay...watch possible at 40% actually means a watch will probably happen lol 3 minutes ago, yoda said: Surprised Wiz hasn't been focused on the MCD for SNE... 40% chance of a watch ehhh the south is where this is at. It's equivalent to either tracking 1-2'' of snow at 2 days out or 12-24'' 3 days out. Nobody is paying attention to 1-2'' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: I read a paper once years ago about the infamous "Tri-State" tornado that ripped ( adjusted to contemporary economics) over a billion dollars in damage from SE Missouri through southern Il and into India - 1925 I think it was. It's been reanalyzed to EOF5 ... The paper discussed something similar re that 'equilibirum' ...and though I am not sure the forecaster means the same thing .. .it sounds similar. What the paper discussed is when the supercell comes into kinematic sinc with the vorticity fields of the super meso scale ...which is also synced up more concomitantly with the large synoptic evolution. That's a different breed of super cell altogether - ... the syncing means they're probably in part establishing their own inflow jet ...as opposed to merely intersecting one and then outpacing it ...a time within which they may general more ephemeral tornadic cellular states. These "super tors" can outlast their smaller brother types until the synoptic evolution no Some years back I read an opinion that it was probably several tornados, with a supercell dying and another forming just ahead on the same general track, kind of a "tornado relay." Given the 1925 obs network status, a definitive answer might not be possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 Just now, tamarack said: Some years back I read an opinion that it was probably several tornados, with a supercell dying and another forming just ahead on the same general track, kind of a "tornado relay." Given the 1925 obs network status, a definitive answer might not be possible. I mean most likely it was a cyclic supercell that produced several long track tornadoes. It's consistent with that type of evolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Yay...watch possible at 40% actually means a watch will probably happen lol ehhh the south is where this is at. It's equivalent to either tracking 1-2'' of snow at 2 days out or 12-24'' 3 days out. Nobody is paying attention to 1-2'' I think you really need to consider moving to the SW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: That's fooking nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 20, 2019 Author Share Posted May 20, 2019 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: well...I'm speechless. I don't think you can draw something more textbook. I think it's a good decision they closed schools/campuses today. Not sure if any other measures were taken with any business decisions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Not sure if any other measures were taken with any business decisions. I initiated a 5,000 unit printing of "Outbreak of 2019" t-shirts after the 12z soundings. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 10 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: well...I'm speechless. I don't think you can draw something more textbook. I think it's a good decision they closed schools/campuses today. Not sure if any other measures were taken with any business decisions. Now this is worth posting, holy shit on the HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 20, 2019 Author Share Posted May 20, 2019 7 minutes ago, JC-CT said: I initiated a 5,000 unit printing of "Outbreak of 2019" t-shirts after the 12z soundings. Hope you made $$$ Just now, Ginx snewx said: Now this is worth posting, holy shit on the HRRR yeah wow...you're not kidding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 20, 2019 Author Share Posted May 20, 2019 They could have at least gone mod with the 65+ knot wind lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 That slack channel is sweet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Hope you made $$$ yeah wow...you're not kidding. I've actually seen 0-3km 400 amid 4000 SB and 3000+ MU before... I think the day of the Oklahoma City 1999 was like that... I was working at a company, Weather Service International then ... and I remember a single pixel on the radar scope and three sweeps later it was 5 pixels with one 55 dbz, and then three sweeps later is was a 68 dbz core clear to 35 k and a tor warned cell. I watched it for many miles as it bee-lined for the city that faithful late afternoon/evening. It was amazing watching that from zygote to monter, and eerie because as you watched and knew OKC was standing literally right on its trajectory ... you're powerless to stop it. I think at one time the radar panned 7 or 8 concurrent hooks spread out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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