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Monday, May 20, 2019 Convective Potential

weatherwiz

By weatherwiz,
in New England

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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  On 5/20/2019 at 2:29 PM, weatherwiz said:

Jesus...this is about as scary as a sounding can get. I don't think I've ever seen a supercell parameter that high. Looks at those helicity values...especially effective inflow and the storm motion vectors. 

 

 

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In some figurative sense  ( ... if not 'literal' in some regards ) that region is already in a "holographic SC construct".   A virtual rotation that is merely unsubstantiated in real type physics because it is merely missing ( presently ) any z-coordinate motion.   Just a matter of suspending any kind of parcel rise through the z-coordinate and that parcel is drilled into a potential ...  immediately closes off and rotates.  

Potential vorticity at the super meso scale is so extreme that it becomes actual vorticity when the UVM in cores takes place.  

I love this statement from SPC:  "... especially mid-afternoon into evening, a few of the best-organized supercells may reach an equilibrium with their already very favorable mesoscale environments long enough to sustainwide, long-track tornadoes. .."

I read a paper once years ago about the infamous "Tri-State" tornado that ripped ( adjusted to contemporary economics) over a billion dollars in damage from SE Missouri through southern Il and into India - 1925 I think it was.  It's been reanalyzed to EOF5  ... The paper discussed something similar re that 'equilibirum' ...and though I am not sure the forecaster means the same thing .. .it sounds similar.  What the paper discussed is when the supercell comes into kinematic sinc with the vorticity fields of the super meso scale ...which is also synced up more concomitantly with the large synoptic evolution.  That's a different breed of super cell altogether - ... the syncing means they're probably in part establishing their own inflow jet ...as opposed to merely intersecting one and then outpacing it ...a time within which they may general more ephemeral tornadic cellular states.   These "super tors" can outlast their smaller brother types until the synoptic evolution no longer becomes as favorable and/or something is encountered sufficiently strong enough to break the syncing.   

There's probably no exact boundary between these types of super cells either... like everything ... there's hybrids and quasi structures that carry on with shared or dual characteristics.  But many long tracak super cells probably carry some sort of heritage with this syncing phenomenon.  

It's really both amazing in its own rite, ...as well as text book for any enthusiasts and early Mets:   powdered boom ... just add water

 

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

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  On 5/20/2019 at 2:51 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

In some figurative sense  ( ... if not 'literal' in some regards ) that region is already in a "holographic SC construct".   A virtual rotation that is merely unsubstantiated in real type physics because it is merely missing ( presently ) any z-coordinate motion.   Just a matter of suspending any kind of parcel rise through the z-coordinate and that parcel is drilled into a potential ...  immediately closes off and rotates.  

Potential vorticity at the super meso scale is so extreme that it becomes actual vorticity when the UVM in cores takes place.  

I love this statement from SPC:  "... especially mid-afternoon into evening, a few of the best-organized supercells may reach an equilibrium with their already very favorable mesoscale environments long enough to sustainwide, long-track tornadoes. .."

I read a paper once years ago about the infamous "Tri-State" tornado that ripped ( adjusted to contemporary economics) over a billion dollars in damage from SE Missouri through southern Il and into India - 1925 I think it was.  It's been reanalyzed to EOF5  ... The paper discussed something similar re that 'equilibirum' ...and though I am not sure the forecaster means the same thing .. .it sounds similar.  What the paper discussed is when the supercell comes into kinematic sinc with the vorticity fields of the super meso scale ...which is also synced up more concomitantly with the large synoptic evolution.  That's a different breed of super cell altogether - ... the syncing means they're probably in part establishing their own inflow jet ...as opposed to merely intersecting one and then outpacing it ...a time within which they may general more ephemeral tornadic cellular states.   This "super tors" can outlast those smaller types until the synoptic evolution no longer becomes as favorable and/or something is encountered sufficiently strong enough to break the syncing through those multiple scales.   

There's probably no exact boundary between these types of super cells either... like everything ... there's hybrids and quasi structures that carry on with shared or dual characteristics.  But many long tracak super cells probably carry some sort of heritage with this syncing phenomenon.  

It's really both amazing in its own rite, ...as well as text book for any enthusiasts and early Mets:   powdered boom ... just add water

 

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This is a super interesting post,,,it was this aspect of meteorology/physics I wish I understood. I will try and find such paper as I would love to read it myself (even though much of the math will be above my head...well at least I have an understanding of what makes up the equation...just have no clue how to solve or use them in real life lol). 

I would have to think though when it comes to these values (speaking in terms for parameters) there has to be a limit of what can be met and achieved...and it comes down to balancing of forces and what not. 

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Hoth

Hoth

Posted
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  On 5/20/2019 at 2:51 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

In some figurative sense  ( ... if not 'literal' in some regards ) that region is already in a "holographic SC construct".   A virtual rotation that is merely unsubstantiated in real type physics because it is merely missing ( presently ) any z-coordinate motion.   Just a matter of suspending any kind of parcel rise through the z-coordinate and that parcel is drilled into a potential ...  immediately closes off and rotates.  

Potential vorticity at the super meso scale is so extreme that it becomes actual vorticity when the UVM in cores takes place.  

I love this statement from SPC:  "... especially mid-afternoon into evening, a few of the best-organized supercells may reach an equilibrium with their already very favorable mesoscale environments long enough to sustainwide, long-track tornadoes. .."

I read a paper once years ago about the infamous "Tri-State" tornado that ripped ( adjusted to contemporary economics) over a billion dollars in damage from SE Missouri through southern Il and into India - 1925 I think it was.  It's been reanalyzed to EOF5  ... The paper discussed something similar re that 'equilibirum' ...and though I am not sure the forecaster means the same thing .. .it sounds similar.  What the paper discussed is when the supercell comes into kinematic sinc with the vorticity fields of the super meso scale ...which is also synced up more concomitantly with the large synoptic evolution.  That's a different breed of super cell altogether - ... the syncing means they're probably in part establishing their own inflow jet ...as opposed to merely intersecting one and then outpacing it ...a time within which they may general more ephemeral tornadic cellular states.   These "super tors" can outlast their smaller brother types until the synoptic evolution no longer becomes as favorable and/or something is encountered sufficiently strong enough to break the syncing.   

There's probably no exact boundary between these types of super cells either... like everything ... there's hybrids and quasi structures that carry on with shared or dual characteristics.  But many long tracak super cells probably carry some sort of heritage with this syncing phenomenon.  

It's really both amazing in its own rite, ...as well as text book for any enthusiasts and early Mets:   powdered boom ... just add water

 

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I would imagine the Tuscaloosa 2011 supercell that rode all the way in VA before dying, putting down a whole family of tornadoes in the process, might be an example of this.

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

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  On 5/20/2019 at 4:46 PM, OceanStWx said:

SPC is drilling down on their threat area within the larger threat area. That first MCD definitely highlights one of their zones.

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the overlap of parameters within that highlighted area is jaw dropping. Some of the strongest overlap of ingredients I can recall...especially with regards just to how extreme the numbers are

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

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  On 5/20/2019 at 5:00 PM, OceanStWx said:

I love that SPC is geeking out over HCRs in the discussion graphic. As anxious as they are, this is what they live to do.

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How often do you see that term used in a discussion lol. But yeah...I think this is what every convective forecaster dreams of..in temrs of forecasting. Obviously not the potential outcome (I had to throw that line in there just to eliminate any posts directed towards "how can you wish death and destruction blah blah) 

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

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  On 5/20/2019 at 5:02 PM, Modfan said:

With the clearing it would appear areas East of the CT river best chance for storms?

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ehhh...the clearing certainly helped with building CAPE but with the best forcing so far north I doubt it really makes a difference...in terms of coverage that is. It may enhance the potential for whatever develops to be on the stronger side. 

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

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  On 5/20/2019 at 5:15 PM, JC-CT said:

@weatherwiz

 

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Yay...watch possible at 40% actually means a watch will probably happen lol

  On 5/20/2019 at 5:15 PM, yoda said:

Surprised Wiz hasn't been focused on the MCD for SNE... 40% chance of a watch

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ehhh the south is where this is at. It's equivalent to either tracking 1-2'' of snow at 2 days out or 12-24'' 3 days out. Nobody is paying attention to 1-2''

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tamarack

tamarack

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  On 5/20/2019 at 2:51 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

I read a paper once years ago about the infamous "Tri-State" tornado that ripped ( adjusted to contemporary economics) over a billion dollars in damage from SE Missouri through southern Il and into India - 1925 I think it was.  It's been reanalyzed to EOF5  ... The paper discussed something similar re that 'equilibirum' ...and though I am not sure the forecaster means the same thing .. .it sounds similar.  What the paper discussed is when the supercell comes into kinematic sinc with the vorticity fields of the super meso scale ...which is also synced up more concomitantly with the large synoptic evolution.  That's a different breed of super cell altogether - ... the syncing means they're probably in part establishing their own inflow jet ...as opposed to merely intersecting one and then outpacing it ...a time within which they may general more ephemeral tornadic cellular states.   These "super tors" can outlast their smaller brother types until the synoptic evolution no

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Some years back I read an opinion that it was probably several tornados, with a supercell dying and another forming just ahead on the same general track, kind of a "tornado relay."   Given the 1925 obs network status, a definitive answer might not be possible. 

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
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  On 5/20/2019 at 5:21 PM, tamarack said:

Some years back I read an opinion that it was probably several tornados, with a supercell dying and another forming just ahead on the same general track, kind of a "tornado relay."   Given the 1925 obs network status, a definitive answer might not be possible. 

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I mean most likely it was a cyclic supercell that produced several long track tornadoes. It's consistent with that type of evolution.

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
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  On 5/20/2019 at 5:20 PM, weatherwiz said:

Yay...watch possible at 40% actually means a watch will probably happen lol

ehhh the south is where this is at. It's equivalent to either tracking 1-2'' of snow at 2 days out or 12-24'' 3 days out. Nobody is paying attention to 1-2''

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:facepalm: I think you really need to consider moving to the SW

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

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  On 5/20/2019 at 5:32 PM, JC-CT said:

I initiated a 5,000 unit printing of "Outbreak of 2019" t-shirts after the 12z soundings.

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Hope you made $$$

  On 5/20/2019 at 5:39 PM, Ginx snewx said:

Now this is worth posting, holy shit on the HRRR

IMG_20190520_133754.jpg

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yeah wow...you're not kidding. 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
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  On 5/20/2019 at 5:41 PM, weatherwiz said:

Hope you made $$$

yeah wow...you're not kidding. 

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I've actually seen 0-3km 400 amid 4000 SB and 3000+ MU before...  

I think the day of the Oklahoma City 1999 was like that... 

I was working at a company, Weather Service International then ... and I remember a single pixel on the radar scope and three sweeps later it was 5 pixels with one 55 dbz, and then three sweeps later is was a 68 dbz core clear to 35 k and a tor warned cell. I watched it for many miles as it bee-lined for the city that faithful late afternoon/evening.  It was amazing watching that from zygote to monter, and eerie because as you watched and knew OKC was standing literally right on its trajectory ... you're powerless to stop it.  I think at one time the radar panned 7 or 8 concurrent hooks spread out 

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