weatherwiz Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 Nothing too crazy on Monday. I don't think we'll see widespread t'storms (maybe moreso in NNE). Main s/w tracking north of the border will limit overall forcing, but the strong dynamics will help compensate some and that will lead to the scattered development. Weak mid-level lapse rates will hurt overall instability, but we should get MLCAPE values in the 1000-1500 J/KG range, so with the degree of dynamics we'll see some localized strong-to-severe t'storms. There are some signs of directional shear in the lowest 5,000 feet so that could be a bit intriguing if any storm can utilize that. I would wager it's a similar scenario to NY/PA today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 I have learned to be wary given that the forcing is lacking and a trigger lacks until the sun begins to set, that could offset the CAPE and dynamics a bit. We shall see. Of course, it is too early in the season for Eastern SNE to see severe weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 It has been thundering for the better part of the last 3-4 hours here. Nothing too close or severe yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 Any EML with this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 20, 2019 Author Share Posted May 20, 2019 No EML 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 Had two of the most spectacularly loud thunderclaps in memory during the night. The odd thing was that there was no other thunder accompanying them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 20, 2019 Author Share Posted May 20, 2019 CAMS not very impressive today. Coverage may even be a bit more towards widely scattered as opposed to scattered. Best forcing goes north is a big killer in more widespread t'storms (but not widespread severe...wasn't a widespread severe setup to begin with). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 St Johnsbury had 3.22 inches overnight at the Fairbanks Museum per Eye on the Sky this morning. Second greatest 24 hour rainfall in May there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 20, 2019 Author Share Posted May 20, 2019 I wonder if @OceanStWx will pop around today. Looks a little interesting in south-central ME later on perhaps. Closer to the strongest forcing and some nice backing of the winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: I wonder if @OceanStWx will pop around today. Looks a little interesting in south-central ME later on perhaps. Closer to the strongest forcing and some nice backing of the winds I'm becoming less and less excited about today. The timing just doesn't look as favorable as it did yesterday. Shortwave shoots through faster, so we don't have as much time to recover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 11 hours ago, klw said: It has been thundering for the better part of the last 3-4 hours here. Nothing too close or severe yet. That was the longest continuous thunder and lighting I can remember last night. Just hour after hour of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 20, 2019 Author Share Posted May 20, 2019 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I'm becoming less and less excited about today. The timing just doesn't look as favorable as it did yesterday. Shortwave shoots through faster, so we don't have as much time to recover. What's sort of been striking to me is how the NAM/NAM NEST have been overshooting dewpoints (which is not really anything new) yet haven't been gung-ho with convection. I was busy all weekend (went to a beer festival at Two Roads Saturday...wow and walked yesterday) so I never really looked at this potential since I did Friday...from what I heard on Twitter today sounded like an outbreak lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 9 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: What's sort of been striking to me is how the NAM/NAM NEST have been overshooting dewpoints (which is not really anything new) yet haven't been gung-ho with convection. I was busy all weekend (went to a beer festival at Two Roads Saturday...wow and walked yesterday) so I never really looked at this potential since I did Friday...from what I heard on Twitter today sounded like an outbreak lol It had really good potential actually, even just 24 hours ago, but the trend has not been kind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 20, 2019 Author Share Posted May 20, 2019 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: It had really good potential actually, even just 24 hours ago, but the trend has not been kind. well it's good to know then it wasn't getting played up by the typical Twitter crowd. I was trying to look from my phone Saturday, but Cod was having issues. I've just been envisioning scattered t'storms (now more widely scattered) with a few localized stronger ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 20, 2019 Author Share Posted May 20, 2019 wow you're not kidding...just threw up WV and that s/w is hauling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 I mean obviously today is going to be serious across the southern Plains too. Great day to be glued to the radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 20, 2019 Author Share Posted May 20, 2019 Just now, OceanStWx said: I mean obviously today is going to be serious across the southern Plains too. Great day to be glued to the radar. It's quite a scary situation. Not just b/c of the high probability of strong-to-violent tornadoes but you have chaster congestion and huge signal for significant flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 Just now, weatherwiz said: It's quite a scary situation. Not just b/c of the high probability of strong-to-violent tornadoes but you have chaster congestion and huge signal for significant flooding. It is possible that flash flooding is the greatest threat, because it could include OKX, TUL, ICT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 9 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I mean obviously today is going to be serious across the southern Plains too. Great day to be glued to the radar. Yeah, Tsar Bombas along the dry line today. Gonna be wild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 20, 2019 Author Share Posted May 20, 2019 7 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: It is possible that flash flooding is the greatest threat, because it could include OKX, TUL, ICT. That's a very real possibility. The population density which is in the highest risk areas for tornadoes and flooding is quite expansive. I just hope chaster congestion today doesn't yield catastrophic results. There are many who hold this concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: That's a very real possibility. The population density which is in the highest risk areas for tornadoes and flooding is quite expansive. I just hope chaster congestion today doesn't yield catastrophic results. There are many who hold this concern. Honestly it would be entirely unsurprising if there was an accident involving chasers today. It may also be the first time a high risk convective outlook and excessive rain outlook have overlapped. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 20, 2019 Author Share Posted May 20, 2019 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Honestly it would be entirely unsurprising if there was an accident involving chasers today. It may also be the first time a high risk convective outlook and excessive rain outlook have overlapped. Without having a full understanding of the algorithm behind the excessive rainfall outlook (I understand it involves likelihood of flash flood guidance being reached so perhaps it takes into account hourly rainfall rates?) I would have thought though the flooding situation would have a greater potential just north of the area...like into KS and MO. Seems to me like across the TX Panhandle/OK we see fast moving supercells and then the transition to an MCS happens farther north...plus you have warm front enhanced precipitation. Although (not sure if this is a consideration) with the hail that should happen today that could vastly escalate flooding potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 13 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Without having a full understanding of the algorithm behind the excessive rainfall outlook (I understand it involves likelihood of flash flood guidance being reached so perhaps it takes into account hourly rainfall rates?) I would have thought though the flooding situation would have a greater potential just north of the area...like into KS and MO. Seems to me like across the TX Panhandle/OK we see fast moving supercells and then the transition to an MCS happens farther north...plus you have warm front enhanced precipitation. Although (not sure if this is a consideration) with the hail that should happen today that could vastly escalate flooding potential Think of it as analogous to an SPC forecaster, someone at SPC uses all available guidance (including flash flood guidance and QPF) to draw those outlooks. There will likely be a narrow zone that sees training storms along the warm front with a non-zero tornado threat. But it's too early to be that specific, hence the broad overlap in OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 20, 2019 Author Share Posted May 20, 2019 11 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Think of it as analogous to an SPC forecaster, someone at SPC uses all available guidance (including flash flood guidance and QPF) to draw those outlooks. There will likely be a narrow zone that sees training storms along the warm front with a non-zero tornado threat. But it's too early to be that specific, hence the broad overlap in OK. I see...that makes much more sense to me now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 20, 2019 Author Share Posted May 20, 2019 Jesus...this is about as scary as a sounding can get. I don't think I've ever seen a supercell parameter that high. Looks at those helicity values...especially effective inflow and the storm motion vectors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 Where is that for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 20, 2019 Author Share Posted May 20, 2019 Just now, HoarfrostHubb said: Where is that for? central OK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Jesus...this is about as scary as a sounding can get. I don't think I've ever seen a supercell parameter that high. Looks at those helicity values...especially effective inflow and the storm motion vectors. Why the hell did they build a city there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 20, 2019 Author Share Posted May 20, 2019 2 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Why the hell did they build a city there It was once a perfect land for farming...until they screwed up by not rotating crops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: It was once a perfect land for farming...until they screwed up by not rotating crops Maybe they were relying on wind-based crop rotation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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