Indystorm Posted May 19, 2019 Share Posted May 19, 2019 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 732 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2019 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHEASTERN SHELBY COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA... NORTHERN RUSH COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA... * UNTIL 800 PM EDT. * AT 732 PM EDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR SHELBYVILLE, MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR... ARLINGTON AROUND 745 PM EDT. RUSHVILLE AROUND 750 PM EDT. MAYS AROUND 755 PM EDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern stream Posted May 19, 2019 Share Posted May 19, 2019 Nice little embedded supercell there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 Nothing here but a few tree limbs down up this way as the line passed through. Caught a shot of the shelf cloud as it passed overhead. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 There was a tornado reported 5 miles east of Eaton not long ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 New day 2 has enhanced area for a good chunk of MO. Quote DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1239 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2019 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF MO...NORTHERN AR...AND FAR WEST-CENTRAL IL... ..SUMMARY THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SOUTH INTO THE ARKLATEX ON TUESDAY. ..SYNOPSIS MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY, REACHING THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. STRONG SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGHOUT THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CYCLONE WILL SPREAD FROM THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE UPPER/MID MS VALLEY. SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE OCCLUDING. THIS OCCLUSION PROCESS WILL RESULT IN EVENTUAL DISPLACEMENT BETWEEN THE WARM SECTOR (OVER THE MID MS VALLEY) AND THE SURFACE LOW (OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS) AFTER 21Z. ..LOWER MO/MID MS VALLEYS INTO THE ARKLATEX EXPANSIVE CONVECTIVE LINE WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD FROM KS THROUGH NORTH TX. THIS LINE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PROGRESSING EASTWARD/NORTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY, MOVING THROUGH AR, MO, AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL IL. KINEMATIC FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE MENTIONED IN THE SYNOPSIS ARE IMPRESSIVE, WITH 80 KT OF SOUTHERLY 500 MB FLOW ATOP SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW OF 40-50 KT EXPECTED ACROSS MO BY 21Z. THE RESULT IS VERY LONG HODOGRAPHS AND STRONG DEEP LAYER (I.E. 0-6 KM) SHEAR AROUND 60-70 KT. A WARM FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS MO TUESDAY MORNING, WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ANTICIPATED AHEAD OF THE LINE AS IT MOVES INTO MO AND AR DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ALSO, THE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE PARENT CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CATCH UP TO THE PRECEDING CONVECTIVE LINE. ALL OF THESE FACTORS SUGGEST A REINTENSIFICATION OF THE LINE IS LIKELY, WITH SOME INCREASED FORWARD PROPAGATION ANTICIPATED. CONSEQUENTLY, HIGHER COVERAGE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IS POSSIBLE AND A 30% PROBABILITY AREA HAS BEEN ADDED FROM NORTHERN MO/FAR WEST-CENTRAL IL SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN AR. MESOVORTICES/QLCS TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY IN AREAS WHERE THE CONVECTIVE LINE SURGES FORWARD. ..MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD TORNADO: 5% - SLIGHT WIND: 30% - ENHANCED HAIL: 15% - SLIGHT ..MOSIER.. 05/20/2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 Not in our subforum, but here's something you don't see every day. I may do some virtual chasing later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 Not in our subforum, but here's something you don't see every day. I may do some virtual chasing later. Heard on the radio that some schools are closed in Oklahoma 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luckyweather Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 Heard on the radio that some schools are closed in Oklahoma I also saw this, OKC district public schools are all closed today. They made the call around 4pm yesterday after consultation with their wfo. In no way am I second guessing their decision - but I can’t help but marvel at it, I’ve simply never heard of or even thought of a pre emptive school closing for tor threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 13 minutes ago, luckyweather said: I also saw this, OKC district public schools are all closed today. They made the call around 4pm yesterday after consultation with their wfo. In no way am I second guessing their decision - but I can’t help but marvel at it, I’ve simply never heard of or even thought of a pre emptive school closing for tor threat. Don't ask me when but I know they have done it in the South, though maybe not so many hours in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 OKC cancelled school today, but it'll be 9pm before any storms even reach OKC. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 STL area might get interesting later..notice they mention the warm air at 700mb... now .watch the opposite happen with bad luck (hope not) AY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0748 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2019 VALID 211300Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF MISSOURI...WESTERN ILLINOIS AND CENTRAL/NORTHERN ARKANSAS... ..SUMMARY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY FROM MISSOURI AND WESTERN ILLINOIS TO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ARKLATEX REGIONS. DAMAGING GUSTS, LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES MAY OCCUR. ..SYNOPSIS THE LARGE-SCALE/UPPER-AIR PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY MEAN TROUGHING FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS TO NORTHERN MX. TWO EMBEDDED MID/UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONES WILL AFFECT THIS REGIME, THE FIRST NOW CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES NEAR THE CO/NM LINE. THIS LEADING LOW SHOULD EJECT EASTWARD THEN NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS, IN A CURVING PATTERN. MEANWHILE ANOTHER LOW -- APPARENT IN MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY WEST OF THE OR COASTLINE, WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SIERRA AND NEARBY PARTS OF CA/NV. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, A BROAD, SOMEWHAT DUMBBELL- SHAPED CYCLONE WITH FUJIWHARA VORTEX-INTERACTION CHARACTERISTICS SHOULD EVOLVE AROUND THOSE TWO MAJOR/EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS, AND EXTEND FROM CA TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A PRONOUNCED RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM A HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. AT THE SURFACE, 11Z ANALYSIS SHOWED A COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE, DIFFUSED BY OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST, AND COVERING NORTHWEST OK, THE NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWESTERN KS. THIS SHOULD CONSOLIDATE INTO A BETTER-DEFINED CYCLONE THROUGH THE DAY WHILE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL KS TO SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEASTERN NE. MEANWHILE A BLENDED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND WARM FRONTAL ZONE WAS ANALYZED ACROSS NORTHERN AR INTO NORTHEASTERN OK, WITH A COLD FRONT OVER WESTERN OK AND WEST-CENTRAL TX. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD CATCH UP TO A PREFRONTAL CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE PERIOD OVER EASTERN OK TO CENTRAL TX. MEANWHILE THE WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW ZONE SHOULD SHIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE OZARKS AND MO, REACHING PORTIONS OF IA/IL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ..MO/IL TO ARKLATEX A QLCS WITH PERIODIC/EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS AND BOOKEND VORTICES, WITH A HISTORY OF QUICK-SPINUP TORNADIC/TDS ACTIVITY IN CENTRAL/SOUTHEASTERN OK, SHOULD PROCEED ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST OK THROUGH THE MORNING, EITHER SIDE OF A MODIFYING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION. REFER TO SPC WATCH 205 AND RELATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR NEAR-TERM DETAILS. THE SAME COMPLEX, OR A REDEVELOPED VERSION, IS EXPECTED TO POSE AN EXPANDING SEVERE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE OZARKS, WITH SOME BACKBUILDING OR RE-STRENGTHENING POSSIBLE SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE RICH RESERVOIR OF NEAR-SURFACE MOISTURE OVER EAST TX. THIS SHOULD OCCUR AS A COMBINATION OF WARM ADVECTION AND DIABATIC SURFACE HEATING CONTRIBUTES TO DESTABILIZATION ALL ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR, INCLUDING AIR-MASS RECOVERY IN AREAS OF MO PREVIOUSLY COVERED BY STABILIZING OUTFLOW SAMPLED WELL BY 12Z SGF SOUNDING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND PLANAR PROGS REASONABLY SUGGEST A SOUTHWARD INCREASE IN MLCAPE, FROM THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE OVER PARTS OF MO TO OVER 2000 J/KG IN EAST TX (WHERE THE LOW-LEVEL FORCING WILL BE WEAKER, HENCE MORE-CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT). THE PRESENCE OF A STABLE LAYER NEAR 700 MB APPEARS TO BE RELATED TO THE NORTHEASTERN FRINGE OF A RESIDUAL EML ADVECTED FROM THE MEXICAN PLATEAU AND OBSERVED IN PRIOR SOUNDINGS. THIS FEATURE ALOFT, SIMILARLY TO YESTERDAY OVER THE OK/TX WARM SECTOR, MAY RESTRICT DEVELOPMENT OF DISCRETE CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE CORRIDOR OF GREATEST FORCING -- IN THIS CASE THE OUTFLOW-REINFORCED EFFECTIVE COLD FRONT. AS THE LEADING/ROCKIES CYCLONE AND TRAILING TROUGH PIVOT ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS, MID/UPPER WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THIS REGION, BOOSTING DEEP SHEAR, WHILE THE PASS RESPONSE MAINTAINS OR INCREASES LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. AS SUCH, THE PARAMETER SPACE WILL FAVOR BOTH DAMAGING GUSTS (SOME SEVERE), AND OCCASIONAL TORNADOES. TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY BE RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED NEAR RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE. SEVERE POTENTIAL OVERALL SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE CYCLONE EJECTS/OCCLUDES AND THE NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES IN THE WARM SECTOR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1110 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2019 VALID 211630Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF WESTERN ILLINOIS...MUCH OF MISSOURI...AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS... ..SUMMARY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY FROM MISSOURI AND WESTERN ILLINOIS TO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ARKLATEX REGIONS. DAMAGING GUSTS, LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES MAY OCCUR. ..AR/MO/IL A SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN MO AND EASTERN OK THIS MORNING. THIS LINE HAS BEEN IN A LULL OF INTENSITY, LIKELY TIED TO LINGERING DIURNAL STABILIZATION. HOWEVER, IT IS LIKELY TO REJUVENATE BY EARLY AFTERNOON, POSING AN INCREASING RISK OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND TRANSIENT QLCS TORNADOES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AHEAD OF THE LINE SHOW VERY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND RAPID LOW-LEVEL DESTABILIZATION AS A VERY MOIST AIR MASS OVER AR SPREADS INTO SOUTHEAST MO. THIS TREND INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE BY LATE AFTERNOON. ANY DISCRETE CELLS THAT CAN FORM AHEAD OF THE LINE WOULD ALSO POSE A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES. ..KS IN THE WAKE OF THE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION SPREADING INTO THE MID MS VALLEY, CLEARING IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP INTO PARTS OF SOUTHWEST KS. BY LATE AFTERNOON, STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE CAPE WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SEVERE STORMS. LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT. HOWEVER, SUBSTANTIAL LOW-LEVEL CAPE AND FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL PROMOTE A FEW SUPERCELLS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD INTO EASTERN KS AND PERHAPS NORTHWEST MO BEFORE DIMINISHING TONIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 106 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2019 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHWESTERN WEBSTER COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI... SOUTHWESTERN DALLAS COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI... NORTHEASTERN GREENE COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI... * UNTIL 130 PM CDT. * AT 106 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR FAIR GROVE, OR NEAR STRAFFORD, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calderon Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 Confirmed tornadoes so far near Edgar Spring, MO and just recently Rhineland, MO. New broad circulation near Sullivan, MO headed right up I-44 towards St. Louis Metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 It's very close to the radar site so I'm not sure what to make of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calderon Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 Confirmed large, very dangerous tornado with a huge debris ball near Augusta, straddling the St. Louis/St. Charles County lines, and it's headed directly at the NWS office in Weldon Spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 Just now, Calderon said: Confirmed large, very dangerous tornado with a huge debris ball near Augusta, straddling the St. Louis/St. Charles County lines, and it's headed directly at the NWS office in Weldon Spring. GTG shear is insane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calderon Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 This tornado absolutely bombed out so fast and may a very hard hook to the north, now fully within St. Charles County. NWS St. Louis is currently handing over to Kansas City to take cover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 4 minutes ago, Calderon said: Confirmed large, very dangerous tornado with a huge debris ball near Augusta, straddling the St. Louis/St. Charles County lines, and it's headed directly at the NWS office in Weldon Spring. Is that in a warning update/severe weather statement because the last one I have from them is from 4:58 pm. Maybe just a problem on my end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 Just now, Hoosier said: Is that in a warning update/severe weather statement because the last one I have from them is from 4:58 pm. Maybe just a problem on my end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 can't tell if it fell apart or just too close to radar site Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 What the hell just happened.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 That was one heck of a QLCS tornado. Produced a massive debris ball. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 2 minutes ago, jpeters3 said: What the hell just happened.... triple point area of occluded front ....check out STL V AD and surface obs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calderon Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 The circulation looks to have completely fallen apart very rapidly as it is moving into Weldon Spring right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 Just now, Calderon said: The circulation looks to have completely fallen apart very rapidly as it is moving into Weldon Spring right now. Thankfully. That was a really close call. Looks to have been a very intense tornado for a few minutes there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fourseasons Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 9 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Is that in a warning update/severe weather statement because the last one I have from them is from 4:58 pm. Maybe just a problem on my end. I'm watching KSDK and the weather channel and they're saying it's on the ground. Confirmed over Weldon Spring as of 6:19 Central time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
METALSTORM Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 2 minutes ago, Calderon said: The circulation looks to have completely fallen apart very rapidly as it is moving into Weldon Spring right now. It's moving right on top of the radar sight 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 And at 6:19 CDT the warning was extended to areas ne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 5 minutes ago, jpeters3 said: That was one heck of a QLCS tornado. Produced a massive debris ball. I think it was a semi embedded supercell for a bit..had a huge hail spike right before it dropped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now