Stebo Posted May 17, 2019 Share Posted May 17, 2019 2 hours ago, IWXwx said: Uh...yeah...we had a little hail storm here tonight. Seeing the damage in the light of day is going to be ugly. Holy crap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 17, 2019 Share Posted May 17, 2019 Ended up heading west later yesterday afternoon, to make a play on the OFB area turned triple point, with the cold front sliding southeast. The environment in this area was nice...With high CAPE, pooling of moisture with ~70F DP's and good shear. A stronger surface wind flow was lacking, however. Sat in Rochelle for a while with CU bubbling along the OFB/triple point just west. A storm quickly went up and tried to beat the cap, going severe and up to around ~55k tops within 15 minutes or so. Quickly headed WSW to make a play on it and reached it just west of Amboy, but it quickly died shortly after. Ended up calling it a chase at that point, with activity further west near the IL/IA border having little to no tor threat, and also struggling. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Doctor Posted May 17, 2019 Share Posted May 17, 2019 One of the odder looking probabilistic outlooks I've seen, with the sig area totally separate from the higher probs. This is the Day 2 outlook for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted May 17, 2019 Share Posted May 17, 2019 18 minutes ago, The_Doctor said: One of the odder looking probabilistic outlooks I've seen, with the sig area totally separate from the higher probs. This is the Day 2 outlook for tomorrow. Yeah, has to do with an MCS moving through in the morning/early afternoon, which will be less severe but more of a sure bet to happen. And then a more conditional threat of supercells to the west which would have more significant severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted May 19, 2019 Share Posted May 19, 2019 Hope we can get the cloud cover from the first line of storms to clear out before the secondary line gets going tomorrow. The timing of these things has sucked for Central IN as of late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 19, 2019 Share Posted May 19, 2019 1 hour ago, Jackstraw said: Hope we can get the cloud cover from the first line of storms to clear out before the secondary line gets going tomorrow. The timing of these things has sucked for Central IN as of late. Yes, I have been focusing so much on OK for Monday that I have not had a chance to look at parameters here for our slight risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pen_artist Posted May 19, 2019 Share Posted May 19, 2019 Anyone have particular thoughts on Tuesday's setup? In terms of intensity and areas to most watch our for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted May 19, 2019 Share Posted May 19, 2019 12 hours ago, Indystorm said: Yes, I have been focusing so much on OK for Monday that I have not had a chance to look at parameters here for our slight risk. KIND disco... Once the first batch of convection shifts east with the deeper moisture plume and low level jet core however...numerous signs point to a more conducive atmosphere for severe convection within a window encompassing late afternoon into the early evening along and immediately ahead of the cold front. Boundary layer flow while not as strong as earlier in the day remains supportive for renewed convective development. Diffluence aloft will enhance with the arrival of the negatively tilted upper trough and a weak upper jetlet will be in an ideal location to enhance convective redevelopment. Of noted interest is the hint of a small wave developing along the front by early evening which could conceivably produce a short period with backed boundary layer flow and consequently an axis of stronger BL shear and helicity immediately ahead of the front. The lack of deeper moisture by late afternoon may be a mitigating factor at least from a coverage standpoint but CAPES levels to 1000 J/KG or greater would likely be enough instability to generate a broken line of convection ahead of the front...something being suggested by several of the CAMs. While the setup is not nearly as clean as desired...the primary severe weather threat will likely reside within this 4-6 hour window from mid afternoon into the early evening as the initial batch of convection shifts east followed by the broken line of convection ahead of the frontal boundary. While damaging wind gusts remain the primary threat considering the stronger flow in the upper levels of the boundary layer...large hail and a few tornadoes remain a possibility considering the increase in directional shear setting up just ahead of the cold front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 19, 2019 Share Posted May 19, 2019 Satellite shows partial clearing now over central IL with a line of storms beginning to form from Quad Cities down to St. Louis area. If clouds and convection can leave Indiana and the partial clearing occur over this region we may be on target for the svr storms in the 3-9 p.m. EDT period that IND was thinking. We'll see what SPC has to say in the new Day 1 update shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 19, 2019 Share Posted May 19, 2019 Slight risk ..IL into MI... A broad shield of clouds and associated precipitation is affecting much of eastern IL, IN, lower MI, and western Ohio. Clearing will occur this afternoon in the wake of this system, leading to sufficient instability for the redevelopment of scattered thunderstorms. Large scale forcing is weak in this region, and overall convective coverage/intensity is expected to be rather weak. Nevertheless, a few strong to severe storms are possible, capable of hail and damaging wind gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 19, 2019 Share Posted May 19, 2019 Chicago has a severe warned cell on the north side of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 19, 2019 Share Posted May 19, 2019 Surprise BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 254 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2019 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHEASTERN MACOMB COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN... * UNTIL 345 PM EDT. * AT 254 PM EDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER ARMADA, OR NEAR RICHMOND, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR... RICHMOND AROUND 300 PM EDT. MEMPHIS AROUND 305 PM EDT. OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE RAY CENTER AND NEW HAVEN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 19, 2019 Share Posted May 19, 2019 Mesoscale Discussion 0688 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 PM CDT Sun May 19 2019 Areas affected...Central/Southern Illinois and Western Indiana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 191906Z - 192100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Localized severe hail/damaging wind potential, watch possible. DISCUSSION...Regional radar shows a line of convection has developed along a pre-frontal trough extending across portions of central/southern Illinois. Thus far, development has been modulated by the weak amount of instability (MLCAPE < 1000 J/kg). However, storms should continue to gradually intensify as the airmass ahead of the line continues to destabilize with diabatic heating and the approaching upper-level trough. Effective bulk shear of 50-55 kt will help to organize the convection into primarily multicellular structures, with severe hail and a few damaging wind gusts possible. Should this storm evolution unfold and storm coverage continue to expand, a watch may be needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 19, 2019 Share Posted May 19, 2019 29 minutes ago, Indystorm said: Chicago has a severe warned cell on the north side of the city. Some decent wind damage reports from that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 19, 2019 Share Posted May 19, 2019 Sun just came out here ne of Indpls after morning showers. Gonna heat things up a bit 68/64 currently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted May 19, 2019 Share Posted May 19, 2019 Rain is finally pushing out of here, IWX expects a few hours of clearing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 19, 2019 Share Posted May 19, 2019 Pre frontal line of thin convection extending from near Danville IL sw to Mt. Vernon IL area. Watching closely since sometimes pre frontal lines can hold surprises. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 19, 2019 Share Posted May 19, 2019 BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 355 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2019 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... CENTRAL FOUNTAIN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL INDIANA... NORTHWESTERN TIPPECANOE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL INDIANA... WARREN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL INDIANA... NORTHWESTERN VERMILLION COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL INDIANA... * UNTIL 445 PM EDT. * AT 355 PM EDT, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR TALBOT TO TILTON, MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. A 63 MPH WIND GUST WAS REPORTED EAST OF ROSSVILLE AT 350 PM. HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS. SOURCE...PUBLIC. IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS, SIDING, AND TREES. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... WEST LAFAYETTE, COVINGTON, VEEDERSBURG, WILLIAMSPORT, ATTICA, SHADELAND, WEST LEBANON, PERRYSVILLE, NEWTOWN, PINE VILLAGE, STATE LINE CITY, PENCE, FOSTER, TAB, GESSIE AND RAINSVILLE. THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS... INTERSTATE 65 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 181 AND 183. INTERSTATE 74 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 19, 2019 Share Posted May 19, 2019 Nice string of svr warned cells along the IL/IN state line at present moving eastward. 71/64 here with partial sunshine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 19, 2019 Share Posted May 19, 2019 Bit surprised no svr storm watch has been issued yet for IN. I know this is based on extent of geographical coverage, but we have had a number of svr warnings already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 19, 2019 Share Posted May 19, 2019 A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM EDT FOR CENTRAL FOUNTAIN...NORTHWESTERN TIPPECANOE...WARREN AND NORTHWESTERN VERMILLION COUNTIES... AT 410 PM EDT, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR OXFORD TO NEAR COVINGTON, MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS. SOURCE...PUBLIC. IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS, SIDING, AND TREES. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... COVINGTON, VEEDERSBURG, WILLIAMSPORT, ATTICA, SHADELAND, WEST LEBANON, PERRYSVILLE, NEWTOWN, PINE VILLAGE, FOSTER, GESSIE AND RAINSVILLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted May 19, 2019 Share Posted May 19, 2019 7 minutes ago, Indystorm said: Bit surprised no svr storm watch has been issued yet for IN. I know this is based on extent of geographical coverage, but we have had a number of svr warnings already. Just issued Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 19, 2019 Share Posted May 19, 2019 Small bows seem to be forming on many of the incoming cells throughout the line. 60 mph gusts seem to be prominent in warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 19, 2019 Share Posted May 19, 2019 BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 522 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2019 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN CARROLL COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA... NORTHERN CLINTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA... HOWARD COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA... NORTHERN TIPTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA... * UNTIL 600 PM EDT. * AT 521 PM EDT, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES WEST OF WALTON TO 6 MILES WEST OF FRANKFORT, MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. A SPOTTER ESTIMATED 60 MPH WINDS IN FLORA AT 5:14 PM. HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...PUBLIC. IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO ROOFS, SIDING, AND TREES. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... KOKOMO, FRANKFORT, GREENTOWN, RUSSIAVILLE, SHARPSVILLE, BURLINGTON, MICHIGANTOWN AND INDIAN HEIGHTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 19, 2019 Share Posted May 19, 2019 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTHERN INDIANA HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... WABASH COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA... SOUTHWESTERN WHITLEY COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN INDIANA... NORTHWESTERN HUNTINGTON COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN INDIANA... SOUTHEASTERN KOSCIUSKO COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA... MIAMI COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA... * UNTIL 600 PM EDT. * AT 535 PM EDT, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR AKRON TO 7 MILES EAST OF MEXICO TO 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF KOKOMO, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH. SPORADIC REPORTS OF TREE DAMAGE AS WELL AS WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 57 MPH HAVE BEEN RECORDED IN LOGANSPORT, DENVER AND WALTON. HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND PENNY SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS, SIDING, AND TREES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 19, 2019 Share Posted May 19, 2019 ULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 553 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2019 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... NORTHERN MADISON COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA... EASTERN CLINTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA... HOWARD COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA... NORTHWESTERN HAMILTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA... TIPTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA... * UNTIL 645 PM EDT. * AT 552 PM EDT, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 11 MILES NORTHEAST OF FRANKFORT TO 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF TIPTON, MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH. THIS STORM HAS WEAK ROTATION IN SOUTHWEST HOWARD COUNTY. HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO ROOFS, SIDING, AND TREES. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... KOKOMO, ELWOOD, ALEXANDRIA, TIPTON, WINDFALL, GREENTOWN, RUSSIAVILLE, SUMMITVILLE, ATLANTA, SHARPSVILLE, ORESTES, KEMPTON AND INDIAN HEIGHTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 19, 2019 Share Posted May 19, 2019 Scattered damage reports to trees, power lines, and a gazebo coming in from central and western IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 19, 2019 Share Posted May 19, 2019 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 627 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2019 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND RAPIDS HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... EAST CENTRAL BARRY COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN MICHIGAN... WEST CENTRAL EATON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MICHIGAN... * UNTIL 700 PM EDT. * AT 626 PM EDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF NASHVILLE, OR 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HASTINGS, MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR... NASHVILLE AROUND 635 PM EDT. CHARLOTTE AROUND 700 PM EDT. OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE KALAMO, VERMONTVILLE AND GRESHAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 19, 2019 Share Posted May 19, 2019 Weak rotation in the storm headed my way... BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 636 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2019 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... NORTHWESTERN SHELBY COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA... WESTERN HANCOCK COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA... NORTHEASTERN MORGAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA... NORTHERN JOHNSON COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA... EASTERN HENDRICKS COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA... MARION COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA... SOUTHEASTERN BOONE COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA... SOUTHERN HAMILTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA... * UNTIL 700 PM EDT. * AT 635 PM EDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BROWNSBURG, OR 13 MILES NORTHWEST OF INDIANAPOLIS, MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH. THIS STORM HAS PRODUCED WEAK ROTATION NORTH OF BROWNSBURG. HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS, SIDING, AND TREES. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... INDIANAPOLIS, CARMEL, FISHERS, NOBLESVILLE, GREENWOOD, LAWRENCE, PLAINFIELD, BROWNSBURG, GREENFIELD, BEECH GROVE, ZIONSVILLE, SPEEDWAY, MOORESVILLE, DANVILLE, SOUTHPORT, WESTFIELD, AVON, CUMBERLAND, MCCORDSVILLE AND FORTVILLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sidewinder Posted May 19, 2019 Share Posted May 19, 2019 The line had more bark than bite south of Indy Interesting tidbit from storm reports today. Not too often you see a fatality from wind damage report. Wrong place at the wrong time. 1900 UNK 2 ESE ETAM PRESTON WV 3928 7969 *** 1 FATAL ... 1 INJ *** A FALLEN TREE DURING STORM STUCK 3 KAYAKERS ALONG THE CHEAT RIVER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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