Tim from Springfield (IL) Posted May 17, 2019 Share Posted May 17, 2019 Don't mean to be late to the party, but another MD for IA/N IL for late tonight. 60% watch issuance likely. As discussed on the main short-term severe thread, Day 1 of the active pattern which includes marginals for parts of the subforum tonight and Saturday (plus Slight in IA Sat), and D4 (Sun) & D6 (Tue) risks already posted for parts of the sub too. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0643.html Mesoscale Discussion 0643 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0714 PM CDT Thu May 16 2019 Areas affected...Southern and Eastern Iowa...Northern Illinois Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 170014Z - 170215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat is likely to continue developing across parts of southern and eastern Iowa eastward into northern Illinois. Wind damage and hail will be the primary threats. Weather watch issuance may be needed especially as uncertainty concerning convective coverage decreases. DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis has a cold front from eastern Nebraska extending eastward across central Iowa into northern Illinois. An axis of maximized low-level moisture and enhanced convergence near an outflow boundary exists across northern Illinois where convective initiation has occurred in the last hour. Storm development in this area should remain relatively isolated, moving southeastward across north-central Illinois over the next hour or two. A wind damage and hail threat will be possible with this convection. Further to the west, An axis of moderate instability is analyzed across southern and eastern Iowa. The RAP is estimating MLCAPE values in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range and shows 0-3 km lapse rates exceeding 8.0 C/km along this corridor. As a capping inversion decreases and low-level convergence becomes enhanced along the front, cell initiation is expected to occur. The latest short-term guidance suggests that scattered surface-based initiation will take place by 01Z to 02Z. In addition to the instability, the WSR-88D VWP at Davenport, Iowa shows 0-6 km shear near 35 kt suggesting that a severe threat may develop as cells increase in coverage. Wind damage and hail will likely be the primary threats. ..Broyles/Guyer.. 05/17/2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 17, 2019 Share Posted May 17, 2019 Thanks for starting a dedicated thread for this episode, Tim. Now through mid week at least looks to be the most active we've seen in the Midwest for quite some time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 17, 2019 Share Posted May 17, 2019 The cell northwest of De Witt IA might be one to watch. Looks like a legit sup in the making there. Right on the boundary as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 17, 2019 Share Posted May 17, 2019 16 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: The cell northwest of De Witt IA might be one to watch. Looks like a legit sup in the making there. Right on the boundary as well. Never mind, got messy pretty quickly lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NTXYankee Posted May 17, 2019 Share Posted May 17, 2019 Probably a good thing I haven’t watered flowers, etc. If everything in Indiana continues to develop and move SE towards Columbus heavy rain probably a decent bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted May 17, 2019 Share Posted May 17, 2019 4 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Never mind, got messy pretty quickly lol. There still some good rotation on radarscope. Its pretty close to the radar. Last few visible shots of this line showed some really strong updrafts with overshooting tops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 17, 2019 Share Posted May 17, 2019 Looks like a left split on that Dewitt cell too. Look how the severe cells are slowing moving eastward to the western Chicago burbs. The stabilizing effects of today's MCS must be lessening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted May 17, 2019 Share Posted May 17, 2019 A nasty-looking cell with hail cores is about to hit Cyclone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 17, 2019 Share Posted May 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: A nasty-looking cell with hail cores is about to hit Cyclone. This has been some of the best lightning I've seen around here. The whole sky filled with lightning at pretty much all times. Lots of bolts shooting across the sky. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted May 17, 2019 Share Posted May 17, 2019 Uh...yeah...we had a little hail storm here tonight. Seeing the damage in the light of day is going to be ugly. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted May 17, 2019 Share Posted May 17, 2019 Uh...yeah...we had a little hail storm here tonight. Seeing the damage in the light of day is going to be ugly.Wow. That had to be a wild experience Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted May 17, 2019 Share Posted May 17, 2019 Just now, King James said: Wow. That had to be a wild experience Yep. A couple more for good measure: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 17, 2019 Share Posted May 17, 2019 I was wondering how large and extensive the hail was up your way Butch as I looked at those purple returns on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 17, 2019 Share Posted May 17, 2019 22 minutes ago, IWXwx said: Uh...yeah...we had a little hail storm here tonight. Seeing the damage in the light of day is going to be ugly. Oh wow! Sorry about the car. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 17, 2019 Share Posted May 17, 2019 1 hour ago, cyclone77 said: This has been some of the best lightning I've seen around here. The whole sky filled with lightning at pretty much all times. Lots of bolts shooting across the sky. Prolific lightning with the stuff coming in here. Can't even count 1 second between flashes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 17, 2019 Share Posted May 17, 2019 28 minutes ago, IWXwx said: Uh...yeah...we had a little hail storm here tonight. Seeing the damage in the light of day is going to be ugly. Yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted May 17, 2019 Share Posted May 17, 2019 5 minutes ago, Indystorm said: I was wondering how large and extensive the hail was up your way Butch as I looked at those purple returns on radar. 3 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: Oh wow! Sorry about the car. Fortunate for me, it was a friend's car. My cars are in the garage. However my take-home Emergency Management Tahoe may not have fared so well. No broken windows, but had to abort my chase under a gas station awning. It probably has some dimples. Quarters to occasional golf balls in my location, but the pictures show what hit in a couple of other parts of town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 17, 2019 Share Posted May 17, 2019 Cell now warned here. Sounded like some small hail a few minutes ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted May 17, 2019 Share Posted May 17, 2019 A big hail producing monster is just to my south. If it continues on it’s current track, the hail core may moss be by a mile or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted May 17, 2019 Share Posted May 17, 2019 1 minute ago, SchaumburgStormer said: A big hail producing monster is just to my south. If it continues on it’s current track, the hail core may moss be by a mile or two. That thing is easily producing 2” hail I’m sure. Good thing it’s just south of a more populated area or there’d be some costly damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted May 17, 2019 Share Posted May 17, 2019 11 minutes ago, CoalCityWxMan said: That thing is easily producing 2” hail I’m sure. Good thing it’s just south of a more populated area or there’d be some costly damage. Caught the edge of the core and got about a minute of half dollar to golf ball size stones. Bunch of them scattered around the yard and deck. Absolutely prolific lightning 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 17, 2019 Share Posted May 17, 2019 DVN sounding from earlier this evening shows some very nice mid-level lapse rates. Steep low-level lapse rates as well for anything surface based to gust out some powerful winds. Saw that in a few locations later in the eve as storms became a bit more surface based. The SPC sounding makes the cap look almost non-existent, but it was surely more potent than what's displayed on their graphics. If you look at the same sounding displayed from COD the cap is much more pronounced, and was likely more accurate. This likely cut down on the overall wind/tor potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted May 17, 2019 Share Posted May 17, 2019 If this DeKalb county storm can maintain this hail on its current track, it is going to wreck the southern half of the metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 17, 2019 Share Posted May 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: If this DeKalb county storm can maintain this hail on its current track, it is going to wreck the southern half of the metro. Yes, it will be similar to what Dallas/Fort Worth experiences on occasion. Very concerning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 17, 2019 Share Posted May 17, 2019 There is another decent hail producer on the southeast side of Chicago moving out over the lake, though not as big as the one farther west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 17, 2019 Share Posted May 17, 2019 Just now, Hoosier said: There is another decent hail producer on the southeast side of Chicago, though not as big as the one farther west. Just warned for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 17, 2019 Share Posted May 17, 2019 7 minutes ago, Indystorm said: Just warned for you. Core is missing safely north. Whiting/Gary area probably got some hail. I wonder if that big boy out west will stay on the current heading or try to nudge south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 17, 2019 Share Posted May 17, 2019 4 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Core is missing safely north. Whiting/Gary area probably got some hail. I wonder if that big boy out west will stay on the current heading or try to nudge south. That's my concern and why I am staying up so late tonight in addition to wanting to see the new day one for the plains and how far south these Midwest storms might travel before retreating north. Lots of wind damage in the Indy metro area from the MCS that went through between 5 and 6 p.m. EDT this evening. Fared ok here locally. My cousin's family has vehicles both inside and outside their garage in Highland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 17, 2019 Share Posted May 17, 2019 PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL 1206 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2019 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 1202 AM HAIL 2 SE KANEVILLE 41.82N 88.49W 05/17/2019 M2.50 INCH KANE IL TRAINED SPOTTER MEASURED 2.25 INCH DIAMETER HAIL, LOTS OF GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 17, 2019 Share Posted May 17, 2019 I'm surprised new svr storms keep popping up around Lee County Il and the Quad Cities. I would have assumed the atmosphere would have been worked over already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now