OUGrad05 Posted May 19, 2019 Share Posted May 19, 2019 FWIW, the 12 UTC HRRR is pretty much all discrete storm mode. That is downright frightening for Oklahoma 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted May 19, 2019 Share Posted May 19, 2019 Looks like SPC pretty much maintained previous outlook, with some changes mainly to expand the enhanced eastward into Arkansas, with the mention of strong tornadoes possible even into eastern OK and western Arkansas, depending on if convection can initiate there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 19, 2019 Share Posted May 19, 2019 Moderate risk remains. Quote DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1229 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2019 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR EASTERN NEW YORK INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ..SUMMARY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF ALL SEVERE HAZARDS, INCLUDING STRONG TORNADOES, ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY. ...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY... ..SOUTHERN PLAINS A COMPLICATED, YET POTENTIALLY HIGHER-END SEVERE WEATHER SCENARIO WILL UNFOLD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER ARIZONA WILL OVERLIE A STRONG SURFACE DRYLINE ALONG THE NEW MEXICO/TEXAS BORDER, RESULTING IN A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED BAND OF STORMS IN THAT AREA AROUND 12Z OR SO. THESE STORMS WILL MIGRATE NORTHEASTWARD AND CONTAIN A THREAT FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THROUGHOUT THE MORNING DUE TO STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SUPERCELLULAR WIND PROFILES. A TORNADO THREAT MAY ALSO EXIST ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS ACTIVITY - ESPECIALLY WHERE CONVECTION CAN BECOME SURFACE-BASED AND REMAIN DISCRETE AMIDST WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE (I.E., UPPER 60S TO 70S DEWPOINTS). THE EVOLUTION OF THIS EARLY MORNING COMPLEX WILL IMPACT THE SEVERE RISK IN DOWNSTREAM AREAS OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A VARIETY OF OPERATIONAL MODELS AND CAMS SUGGEST THAT SOME PORTIONS OF THIS MCS WILL INTERACT WITH THE NORTHWARD-MOVING SURFACE WARM FRONT AND POSSIBLY RETARD ITS MOVEMENT INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA (NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER AREA). MEANWHILE, MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED CONVECTION OUT AHEAD OF ANY ONGOING MCS ACTIVITY - WITH THIS RISK MOST EVIDENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND VICINITY. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RESIDE IN A ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETER SPACE SUPPORTIVE OF ALL SEVERE HAZARDS, INCLUDING SIGNIFICANT HAIL AND STRONG TORNADOES, AND THIS RISK SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED AS LONG AS DISCRETE, CELLULAR CONVECTION CAN PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS RISK WILL BECOME FURTHER ENHANCED BY AN INCREASINGLY STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE EARLY EVENING SHOULD STORMS MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY DISCRETE MODE. FARTHER DOWNSTREAM ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND VICINITY, UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING SPECIFIC POSITIONING OF THE WARM FRONT, ALTHOUGH MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS PERSIST IN DEVELOPING CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION VIA EITHER AN UPSTREAM MCS MOVING INTO THE REGION AND/OR ISOLATED CONVECTION FORMING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION IS PLAUSIBLE GIVEN SURFACE HEATING, WEAK MID-LEVEL INHIBITION, AND BROADLY CONFLUENT WARM-SECTOR LOW-LEVEL FLOW - EVEN IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY FORCING FOR ASCENT ALOFT. THE ENVIRONMENT ALONG AND SOUTH OF ANY WARM FRONT OR CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW WILL SUPPORT ALL SEVERE HAZARDS, INCLUDING STRONG TORNADOES. THE INHERITED RISK AREAS HAVE BEEN EXPANDED EASTWARD INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS TO ACCOUNT FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL IN THOSE AREAS. NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT (ACROSS KANSAS AND VICINITY), STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT PRIMARILY ELEVATED STORMS WITH A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO EXIST IN PORTIONS OF COLORADO, ALTHOUGH THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY WILL DEPEND ON CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND VICINITY. STORMS IN THAT AREA WILL HAVE AT LEAST A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD (AFTER ABOUT 06Z TUESDAY), AN EJECTING MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS VICINITY WILL TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT WHILE MOVING TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS. SUSTAINED LOW-LEVEL ADVECTION ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR (AND RESULTANT MODERATE INSTABILITY) SHOULD RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER LINE OF STORMS ACROSS THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS/PANHANDLE VICINITY. THESE STORMS SHOULD REACH THE I-35 CORRIDOR OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES REMAINING POSSIBLE. ..MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST SURFACE HEATING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT NEAR THE APPALACHIANS WILL RESULT IN STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK INSTABILITY. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE RELATIVELY POOR, ALTHOUGH THE GLANCING INFLUENCE OF AN APPROACHING WAVE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW CONVECTIVE CELLS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. STRONG FLOW ALOFT AND DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF THAT MOMENTUM NEAR STORMS WILL RESULT IN A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THIS RISK SHOULD WANE WITH EASTWARD EXTENT IN RESPONSE TO NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION. ..MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD TORNADO: 15% SIG - MODERATE WIND: 45% - ENHANCED HAIL: 30% SIG - ENHANCED ..COOK.. 05/19/2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted May 19, 2019 Share Posted May 19, 2019 16 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: Moderate risk remains. I think this discussion hits the forecast problem on head. There will probably be tornadoes, and even some strong ones. Details of the outbreak depend on timing of MCS development at various points through the day. If there is no (or weak) early day MCS, and evening activity can remain discrete, we'll probably see a historic outbreak. If not, tornado coverage will probably be more sporadic. If CAMs keep the current trends, I probably wouldn't go with day 1 high risk (at least early tomorrow) given the uncertainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjc3395 Posted May 19, 2019 Share Posted May 19, 2019 At this point - glancing at summary of 12z guidance... I think so long as we don’t get a warm sector crushing MCS... this is bound for a borderline historic outbreak of tornadic supercells. I know that’s crazy to call >24 hours in advance, and I’m by no means saying Dixie level historic. But for plains events, I think we are headed for something very high end.. bordering on history making. CAMs are not built nor able to properly resolve discrete, propagating supercells.. this could easily be a long duration tornadic supercell event across E TX PH into W and C OK, and NW Texas. TTU WRF and NCAR ensembles show a strong signal for discrete modes maintained well after dark - into 5z. Again.. the CAMs you can access for free on pivotal.. especially the 3km NAM.. are not going to resolve tornadic supercells or a discrete fashion for long. Personally this looks like a pretty prolific event - but the uncertainties as mentioned above preclude a high risk until perhaps even the 10 am update. But I think this is shaping up to be a memorable, long-duration tornado event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted May 19, 2019 Share Posted May 19, 2019 Agreed on not going high until tomorrow morning at the earliest. Gotta see how early morning convection behaves and how far north the warm front makes it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted May 19, 2019 Share Posted May 19, 2019 40 minutes ago, bjc3395 said: At this point - glancing at summary of 12z guidance... I think so long as we don’t get a warm sector crushing MCS... this is bound for a borderline historic outbreak of tornadic supercells. I know that’s crazy to call >24 hours in advance, and I’m by no means saying Dixie level historic. But for plains events, I think we are headed for something very high end.. bordering on history making. CAMs are not built nor able to properly resolve discrete, propagating supercells.. this could easily be a long duration tornadic supercell event across E TX PH into W and C OK, and NW Texas. TTU WRF and NCAR ensembles show a strong signal for discrete modes maintained well after dark - into 5z. Again.. the CAMs you can access for free on pivotal.. especially the 3km NAM.. are not going to resolve tornadic supercells or a discrete fashion for long. Personally this looks like a pretty prolific event - but the uncertainties as mentioned above preclude a high risk until perhaps even the 10 am update. But I think this is shaping up to be a memorable, long-duration tornado event. I wouldn't discount the CAM solutions as much as you suggested. CAMs generally do a good job of physically resolving the conditions related to the initiation and maintenance of MCSs (this is supported by research). It is possible that there are subtleties of the dynamics/thermodynamics that the model is capturing that are difficult to pick out of soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjc3395 Posted May 19, 2019 Share Posted May 19, 2019 8 minutes ago, jpeters3 said: I wouldn't discount the CAM solutions as much as you suggested. CAMs generally do a good job of physically resolving the conditions related to the initiation and maintenance of MCSs (this is supported by research). It is possible that there are subtleties of the dynamics/thermodynamics that the model is capturing that are difficult to pick out of soundings. Not necessarily discounting them but I think we get a long lived supercell event. At least til 3Z. That assumes the front isn’t shunted to ~red river or further south. Looks pretty big time. At worst I think we are looking at a mixed mode by 01z or so. We will see. Think we all agree there’s a very high ceiling.. but definitely a low floor too, relative to many expectations. Another day that has my attention is Wednesday despite rising heights. Seems globals show hints of diurnal CI along the dry line... environment is pretty ripe for tornadic supercells if we pop a few off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted May 19, 2019 Share Posted May 19, 2019 The 18z HRRR scenario would definitely be high risk worthy. Multiple rounds of discrete supercells in an unbelievable environment. Just one model but man that's worrisome for most of Oklahoma if even part of that verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanLarsen34 Posted May 19, 2019 Share Posted May 19, 2019 I really feel for anyone who’s responsible for forecasting this event. Seems like the consensus is that tomorrow has a relatively low floor, but extremely high ceiling. We are talking about a major outbreak with several violent long-track tornadoes IF everything materializes. However, there are still several uncertainties that could significantly mitigate that potential. Of course, this hasn’t stopped Mike Morgan from claiming the world is going to end. Even if a set-up looked like April 27 or April 3 the day before, his level of fear-mongering would be completely uncalled for. Here’s the post in question from his twitter account. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okiestormgeek Posted May 19, 2019 Share Posted May 19, 2019 Mike Morgan is infamous for his "drive south" moment that put a lot of people in danger. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 19, 2019 Author Share Posted May 19, 2019 1 hour ago, WhiteoutWX said: The 18z HRRR scenario would definitely be high risk worthy. Multiple rounds of discrete supercells in an unbelievable environment. Just one model but man that's worrisome for most of Oklahoma if even part of that verified. Based on the HRRR: It starts with West Texas already seeing 3000-4000+ J/kg SBCAPE with minimal CINH by 14z. The low-level jet remains stout, averaging 30-50 knots at 850mb throughout the entire day across the moderate risk area and most of the state of Oklahoma. The shear across Oklahoma would support intense to violent tornadoes, IF storm modes are at least semi-discrete. We’re talking about upwards of 50 knots of 0-1km shear by early afternoon. The parameter space moves into a nearly unprecedented categories over west/northwest Texas in the afternoon with 4000-5000+ CAPEs with increasingly intense wind profiles. Dew-points of 70 degrees up to I-40, even in the eastern Texas panhandle? The HRRR is ominous looking and even if there is some convective contamination, you won’t need much recovery/instability to see numerous intense supercells. The instability advertised on the High Plains given the expected wind profiles is extreme and could very well lead to 4”+ hail reports. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 19, 2019 Share Posted May 19, 2019 I do need to ask from a verification standpoint, how reliable in the past has been the HRRR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okiestormgeek Posted May 19, 2019 Share Posted May 19, 2019 Which of the models at this point are leaving the door open for a lower-end tornado threat? How has that particular model performed in recent past? Sorry, non-technical weather geek alert here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okiestormgeek Posted May 19, 2019 Share Posted May 19, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 19, 2019 Author Share Posted May 19, 2019 21 minutes ago, Indystorm said: I do need to ask from a verification standpoint, how reliable in the past has been the HRRR? The HRRR, in general, is good with convective evolution and is more conservative with moisture return than the 3km NAM. That’s why I’d take the dew-point progs seriously. They’re fairly close to what the NAM shows. However, this is a complex, multi-round setup. If morning convection evolves differently than progged, that would change how the rest of the day transpires, especially across the northern part of the risk area. If the HRRR remains consistent and shows a similar evolution with 00z and subsequent model runs, then confidence will be very high. If the model waffles back and forth, that will speak to the complexity even more. As with any convection allowing model, obs and trends will be of the utmost importance. Even if you dial back the HRRR some, it still looks like a tornado outbreak with multiple significant tornadoes is just about unavoidable at this point. There still is a scenario where convective evolution stays messy near/north of I-40, but that’s the best case at this point and probably wouldn’t spare West/Northwest Texas to southwestern Oklahoma. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKStorm Posted May 19, 2019 Share Posted May 19, 2019 Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 251 PM CDT Sun May 19 2019 ...Significant severe weather expected Monday with the threat for strong tornadoes... ...Flash flooding possible across NE OK Monday/Tuesday... .DISCUSSION... Pleasant conditions this afternoon, but this will quickly change with very active weather anticipated Monday into Tuesday. Potent upper trough will move out of the desert southwest on Monday. In response warm front will lift into northeast Oklahoma Monday afternoon. Along/south of warm front, very unstable conditions expected with large looping hodographs. Main question at this point is when the stronger convection develops and how this impacts the northern progression on warm front. Most CAM solutions have boundary lifting to at least I-40 and quite possibly to the Oklahoma/Kansas border. There will be the potential for training supercells near boundary by Monday afternoon and with limited CIN a few isolated supercells will also be possible in the warm sector. Given this scenario, strong/long track tornadoes will be possible with cells that can remain discrete. In addition, very heavy rainfall is expected with these storms across northeast Oklahoma with the potential for flash flooding. A flash flood watch was issued earlier this afternoon which will be in effect Monday morning through Tuesday afternoon. Still expect an axis of heavier rainfall that will impact south- central/southeast Kansas which will likely cause high flows along the Arkansas river and the Neosho at Commerce. Main upper storm system will lift northeast into Kansas on Tuesday with line of strong to severe storms likely sweeping through eastern Oklahoma Tuesday morning, moving into northwest Arkansas by early afternoon. Very strong low level wind fields are progged during this time and even with modest instability, the threat for QLCS tornadoes/damaging winds are expected, especially east of highway 75 where the highest instability develops. Strong upper high builds over the southeast CONUS by mid to late week. Could still see scattered showers/thunderstorms through the remainder of the extended periods, mainly across northeast Oklahoma on the periphery of upper high/stronger southwest flow aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted May 19, 2019 Share Posted May 19, 2019 Significant Flooding Possible Monday into Tuesday... .Thunderstorms with heavy rainfall will be likely Monday through early Tuesday, especially from western and central Oklahoma into northern parts of Oklahoma. While western north Texas and southeast Oklahoma may not see as long of a duration of heavy rain, even brief heavy rainfall late Monday and early Tuesday may lead to flooding and flash flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 19, 2019 Author Share Posted May 19, 2019 Ah, yes. Flooding is another major and perhaps more widespread concern with this system, especially from central/northern Oklahoma into parts of Kansas. Not only is Southern California getting an unusual amount of rain this year, but it’s been very wet in the Plains too. (The whole country for that matter as drought areas have been dwindling) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 19, 2019 Share Posted May 19, 2019 Moore Public Schools will be closed tomorrow... seeing OKC is closed tomorrow as well https://mobile.twitter.com/MoorePublicSch/status/1130226134128504832 https://mobile.twitter.com/OKCPS/status/1130228146505232390 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted May 19, 2019 Share Posted May 19, 2019 28 minutes ago, yoda said: Moore Public Schools will be closed tomorrow... seeing OKC is closed tomorrow as well https://mobile.twitter.com/MoorePublicSch/status/1130226134128504832 https://mobile.twitter.com/OKCPS/status/1130228146505232390 Staff have to report in Okcps. So far 5 Okc metro area schools districts are closed to students on May 20th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherextreme Posted May 19, 2019 Share Posted May 19, 2019 1 hour ago, okiestormgeek said: Mike Morgan is infamous for his "drive south" moment that put a lot of people in danger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherextreme Posted May 19, 2019 Share Posted May 19, 2019 1 hour ago, DanLarsen34 said: I really feel for anyone who’s responsible for forecasting this event. Seems like the consensus is that tomorrow has a relatively low floor, but extremely high ceiling. We are talking about a major outbreak with several violent long-track tornadoes IF everything materializes. However, there are still several uncertainties that could significantly mitigate that potential. Of course, this hasn’t stopped Mike Morgan from claiming the world is going to end. Even if a set-up looked like April 27 or April 3 the day before, his level of fear-mongering would be completely uncalled for. Here’s the post in question from his twitter account. More. Mike MorganVerified account @MikeMorganKFOR 31m31 minutes ago More 5PM Sun. UPDATE: 1. Never seen OKC METRO under CONTINUOUS tornado threat this long: literally 1PM-1AM. 2. Multiple tornado strikes Metro quite possible. 3. Large/violent tornadoes are possible. 4. SVR flooding possible. To avoid hyperbole, first Okla. WX report below #okwx @kfor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 19, 2019 Share Posted May 19, 2019 2 hours ago, Indystorm said: I do need to ask from a verification standpoint, how reliable in the past has been the HRRR? On Friday it nailed the SW NEB tornadic supercell pretty well. Also showed some convection along the DL in KS (it did fail to maintain it though). Imo it’s probably been one of the better models lately when it comes to evolution. Of course it has its own issues with over convecting sometimes. EDIT: tomorrow probably isn’t a case of overconvecting by any means though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted May 19, 2019 Share Posted May 19, 2019 Warm front is along the red river at 10am in this run of the HRRR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benadrill Posted May 19, 2019 Share Posted May 19, 2019 1 hour ago, yoda said: Moore Public Schools will be closed tomorrow... seeing OKC is closed tomorrow as well https://mobile.twitter.com/MoorePublicSch/status/1130226134128504832 https://mobile.twitter.com/OKCPS/status/1130228146505232390 I had no clue tornado days were a thing. I grew up praying for snow days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Travisstorma Posted May 19, 2019 Share Posted May 19, 2019 They weren't when I was in school. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted May 19, 2019 Share Posted May 19, 2019 After the Moore tornado that took the lives of the students in Moore schools are becoming more proactive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 19, 2019 Share Posted May 19, 2019 17 minutes ago, Benadrill said: I had no clue tornado days were a thing. I grew up praying for snow days. I see pros and cons... a lot of schools got hit in the 1974 super outbreak and the recent OKC outbreaks....a bit of bad luck and a large group and kids could be in danger..plus school buses out 3-4pmish on the other hand a newer built school is more sturdy then a home and much better then a mobile home ...plus a lot of parents work and its hard to find day care on short notice ...so early teen aged kids might be home alone even watching their younger siblings without adult supervision in trailers or flimsy homes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benadrill Posted May 19, 2019 Share Posted May 19, 2019 Just now, janetjanet998 said: I see pros and cons... a lot of schools got hit in the 1974 super outbreak ....a bit of bad luck and large group and kids can get put in danger..plus school buses out 3-4pmish on the other hand a school is more sturdy then a home and much better then a mobile home ...plus a lot of parents work so early teen kids might be home alone even watching their younger siblings I'm not hating on it. I think it's a good idea. For some reason the schools in that area don't seem to have basements even though it is a prime area for tornadoes? And the school bus hazards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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