janetjanet998 Posted May 26, 2019 Share Posted May 26, 2019 not much out there but its heading towards Clayton area BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM 507 PM MDT SUN MAY 26 2019 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBUQUERQUE HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... EAST CENTRAL UNION COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO... * UNTIL 545 PM MDT. * AT 507 PM MDT, A TORNADO PRODUCING STORM WAS LOCATED 14 MILES SOUTH OF MOUNT DORA, OR 18 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CLAYTON, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 26, 2019 Share Posted May 26, 2019 went west of Clayton but I assume that there will be campers this weekend at the state park BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM 534 PM MDT SUN MAY 26 2019 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBUQUERQUE HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHEASTERN UNION COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO... * UNTIL 615 PM MDT. * AT 534 PM MDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTH OF CLAYTON LAKE STATE PARK, OR 8 MILES WEST OF CLAYTON, MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND TENNIS BALL SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OhioWX Posted May 26, 2019 Share Posted May 26, 2019 Likely a tornado passing right over or very close to the Denver radar site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted May 26, 2019 Share Posted May 26, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted May 27, 2019 Share Posted May 27, 2019 2 hours ago, OhioWX said: Likely a tornado passing right over or very close to the Denver radar site. That was close, but no cigar. Two storms collided and there was briefly lots of rotation up above but nothing reported at the surface. Of course a million pictures on Twitter of wall clouds. Denver ATC earning their money this afternoon. EDIT: Guess there was a funnel cloud and a very brief touchdown E of the FTG radar site, fortunately nothing there but the prairie dogs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 27, 2019 Share Posted May 27, 2019 MOD rock still for overnight wind AY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0737 PM CDT SUN MAY 26 2019 VALID 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST REGION... ..SUMMARY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING, ACCOMPANIED BY A RISK FOR STRONG, POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A FEW ADDITIONAL TORNADOES. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT, BUT COULD STILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A RISK FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS AS IT CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY. ..01Z OUTLOOK UPDATE A CATEGORICAL MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS FOR THIS EVENING, BUT THIS APPEARS INCREASINGLY LIKELY TO BE DRIVEN BY SEVERE WIND, SOME OF WHICH PROBABLY WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 65 KT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING OFF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES APPEAR TO BE CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATE INTO AN EVOLVING SQUALL WHILE SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS HAS BEEN SUPPORTED BY INFLOW OF AIR CHARACTERIZED BY AT LEAST MODERATELY LARGE CAPE, IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR. CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED SURFACE HEATING AHEAD OF ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS, BUT LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING ON STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW, COUPLED WITH COOLING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE IMPULSE NOW CROSSING THE ROCKIES, IS BEGINNING TO CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING DESTABILIZATION. THE SQUALL LINE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN 40-50 KT SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER AMBIENT MEAN FLOW, WITH STRONGEST MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE FORECAST TO DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY OVERNIGHT. WITHIN THIS REGIME, ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THROUGH 03-05Z, ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. MESOVORTICES EVOLVING WITHIN THE SQUALL LINE MAY POSE A RISK FOR ADDITIONAL TORNADOES, INCLUDING ALONG THE TRACK OF AN EVOLVING BROADER-SCALE LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC CIRCULATION NEAR THE SQUALL LINE INTERSECTION WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN KANSAS. AS THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TOWARD THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY OVERNIGHT, IT MAY PROVIDE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR ANY LINGERING SEVERE WIND/ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL. ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST REGION, THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG A SOUTHWARD ADVANCING FRONT (NOW SOUTH OF THE PENNSYLVANIA BORDER), AND AHEAD OF IT (SPREADING EAST OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS), MAY CONTINUE TO POSE A RISK FOR POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN THE PRESENCE OF MODEST LINGERING INSTABILITY AND 30-40 KT WESTERLY DEEP LAYER AMBIENT MEAN FLOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted May 27, 2019 Share Posted May 27, 2019 PDS TOR on the NM/TX border right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OhioWX Posted May 27, 2019 Share Posted May 27, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 27, 2019 Share Posted May 27, 2019 ULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 911 PM CDT SUN MAY 26 2019 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LUBBOCK TEXAS HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... BAILEY COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN TEXAS... SOUTHERN PARMER COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS... NORTHWESTERN LAMB COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN TEXAS... * UNTIL 1000 PM CDT. * AT 910 PM CDT, A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 11 MILES WEST OF NEEDMORE, OR 18 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MULESHOE, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 27, 2019 Share Posted May 27, 2019 While it is not a perfect setup by any means... it would appear that Tuesday is setting up to be the grand finale to this week and a half run of plains severe chances. Discrete modes appear to be highly favored, and early initiation does not seem to be super likely attm with an EML in place east of the sharpening dryline (largely because tomorrow is not progged to have massive amounts of convection like the last few days have). Low-level wind profiles could be a little better imo, but they will be more than adequate enough to get the job done. Numerous discrete/semi-discrete supercells appear likely east of the dryline from NEB/IA into KS and possibly Oklahoma by mid-late afternoon Tuesday as a substantial 70kt H5 wave ejects into the warm sector, all severe hazards are likely, possibly including all significant severe hazards. Should be noted that details will probably change to some degree in regard to magnitude and location of threats. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Witness Protection Program Posted May 27, 2019 Share Posted May 27, 2019 Edit: According to TWC the supercell that produced the Dora, NM tornado has been dropping tornadoes for 3 hours now, well into Texas. Dora the Explorer indeed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanLarsen34 Posted May 27, 2019 Share Posted May 27, 2019 Storm of the year. I’m speechless. https://twitter.com/kamcnews/status/1132843274111279104?s=21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Araqiel Posted May 27, 2019 Share Posted May 27, 2019 8 hours ago, janetjanet998 said: MOD rock still for overnight wind AY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0737 PM CDT SUN MAY 26 2019 VALID 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST REGION... ..SUMMARY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING, ACCOMPANIED BY A RISK FOR STRONG, POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A FEW ADDITIONAL TORNADOES. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT, BUT COULD STILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A RISK FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS AS IT CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY. ..01Z OUTLOOK UPDATE A CATEGORICAL MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS FOR THIS EVENING, BUT THIS APPEARS INCREASINGLY LIKELY TO BE DRIVEN BY SEVERE WIND, SOME OF WHICH PROBABLY WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 65 KT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING OFF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES APPEAR TO BE CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATE INTO AN EVOLVING SQUALL WHILE SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS HAS BEEN SUPPORTED BY INFLOW OF AIR CHARACTERIZED BY AT LEAST MODERATELY LARGE CAPE, IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR. CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED SURFACE HEATING AHEAD OF ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS, BUT LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING ON STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW, COUPLED WITH COOLING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE IMPULSE NOW CROSSING THE ROCKIES, IS BEGINNING TO CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING DESTABILIZATION. THE SQUALL LINE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN 40-50 KT SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER AMBIENT MEAN FLOW, WITH STRONGEST MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE FORECAST TO DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY OVERNIGHT. WITHIN THIS REGIME, ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THROUGH 03-05Z, ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. MESOVORTICES EVOLVING WITHIN THE SQUALL LINE MAY POSE A RISK FOR ADDITIONAL TORNADOES, INCLUDING ALONG THE TRACK OF AN EVOLVING BROADER-SCALE LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC CIRCULATION NEAR THE SQUALL LINE INTERSECTION WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN KANSAS. AS THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TOWARD THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY OVERNIGHT, IT MAY PROVIDE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR ANY LINGERING SEVERE WIND/ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL. ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST REGION, THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG A SOUTHWARD ADVANCING FRONT (NOW SOUTH OF THE PENNSYLVANIA BORDER), AND AHEAD OF IT (SPREADING EAST OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS), MAY CONTINUE TO POSE A RISK FOR POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN THE PRESENCE OF MODEST LINGERING INSTABILITY AND 30-40 KT WESTERLY DEEP LAYER AMBIENT MEAN FLOW. "Moderate rock..." Nirvana fans know what comes next... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjc3395 Posted May 27, 2019 Share Posted May 27, 2019 Yesterday was the most difficult, successful and ultimately rewarding forecast/nowcast ive ever made while chasing. We woke up in Dighton, KS. Original target was Syracuse to hedge between W KS and N TX PH. Ended up favoring the panhandle and committed to it at 18z. Problem was N if I-40 was getting rocked and stabilized by elevated junk. So - again at 18z - we committed to roughly Lubbock. This was like a 4.5 hour drive, definitely pushing it. But RAP profiles had us confident it would pay off, given favorable multi-CAM ensemble/deterministic trends and observational/satellite data. About an hour from Amarillo it was evident it would be tough as it was very stable looking. We saw CI imminent as large scale ascent (LSA) - evidenced by increasing coverage and depth of Cu behind the dry line - began to spread towards the dry like. The configuration of the ascent was quite linear and favored rapid upscale growth. We abandoned the NE New Mexico target because of convective coverage and terrain, even missing a few tornadoes due to it near Clayton. Farther south, deep into the 2% tornado risk and severe watch, we noticed CI attempts ahead of the linear LSA. The first few were not very robust. However the subsequent attempt did it and a sustained updraft was born. Slowly, it matured and eventually began a right deviant motion. Behind it renewed updraft development occurred but nothing could sustain. Its right deviant motion meant that it would remain discrete, even as LLJ kicked on towards the evening. A classic Great Plains tornadic supercell looked to be developing. We arrived on scene at roughly 2345 Z I think. A persistent, identifiable cone lowering was evident behind a rain curtain. Could’ve been a tornado, I don’t remember. At some point the storm began to reorganize and a landspout appeared, with swirling dust beneath it. Confirmed tornado warning was issued. Whatever. As low level flow began to increase, winds backed from SSEly to ESEly, possibly a response to the storm scale pressure falls owing to rotation in the low level mesocyclone. This supercell was extremely organized, with pretty stunning structure to go with it. It was obvious, however, it was encountering a bit of inhibition and RAP profiles suggest the same. I had thought tornado potential was all but over at this point. Out of nowhere, a ragged, well defined wall cloud showed up behind it. Indeed a new supercell had just blown up in supercell #1’s tracks! Even as this occurred and the first cell was dying, a weak funnel/possible tornado developed. The rotation on the new cell very rapidly strengthened, perhaps aided by storm 1’s outflow. The mesocyclone rapidly expanded in size and it was obvious this storm meant business. The wall cloud increased in rotational velocities, some of the fastest I had ever seen. Little ribbons of vorticity began to fill in/touch the ground. A rather large tornado was about to develop, it seemed. And then it happened - a tornado was born. This all culminated in one of my best iPhone shots I’ve ever had, lol. Unfortunately didn’t have the camera on me. Long story. But anyway, what a day. The many adjustments and the fact we had so much stacked against us - but just enough confidence to say “we can get this done” made this the most enjoyable, satisfying and rewarding chases I’ve ever had. Like 5 chasers were out there with us. This day will be hard to top. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 27, 2019 Share Posted May 27, 2019 Wow. Talk about repositioning after obs analysis. Good job! Think I’m going to position in the DDC area for today, many similarities to 5/17 for SW KS. Hope a storm or two can manage to go up. Overall setup would seem to favor isolated supercells exploding near the diffuse dryline across SW KS as subtle height falls and a 50+kt H5 jet streak eject into the highly moist/unstable, and weakly capped warm sector. High risk, high reward setup for sure. Storms may not form, but if one or two does, it’ll probably be a discrete supercell capable of all severe hazards, owing to strong instability/shear combo and a strengthening low-level jet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted May 28, 2019 Share Posted May 28, 2019 Very favorable conditions out ahead of a cell that has developed in KS. Great ZDR arc with nice hail core and already has signs of mid level rotation. Definitely one to watch if it sustains itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted May 28, 2019 Share Posted May 28, 2019 Just now, MattPetrulli said: Very favorable conditions out ahead of a cell that has developed in KS. Great ZDR arc with nice hail core and already has signs of mid level rotation. Definitely one to watch if it sustains itself. Right as I post this Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The threat for severe may be increasing across portions of central Kansas into south-central Nebraska. Initial discrete modes are expected, with large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes possible. Later in the evening, storms approaching from the west (in Severe Thunderstorm Watch 0265) may also pose a severe threat. The issuance of a WW is likely. DISCUSSION...Convective initiation has been noted along the Trego/Ellis County Kansas line within the last few minutes. Some deep-layer ascent appears to be glancing the area, with a small mid-level perturbation ejecting into the central Plains from Colorado, overspreading the dryline, where some low-level convergence is present. The ambient environment may be characterized by moderate to strong instability (with up to 3000 J/kg MLCAPE noted in northern Kansas), and strong deep-layer shear (effective bulk shear of 50-70 knots). Any storm that can mature and sustain itself in this environment may become supercellular. Given the recent increase of effective SRH to 200-300 m2/s2 associated with a strengthening low level jet (with enlarged, curved hodographs depicted by RAP forecast soundings), storms may also acquire strong low-level rotation, especially if a discrete mode is maintained. Such storms will have the highest potential for producing isolated tornadoes. Otherwise, storms will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts and large hail as they spread into central Nebraska. Sparse instances of very large hail also cannot be ruled out given the high amounts of available buoyancy in the -10 to -30C layer. Latest high resolution model data depicts an increase in storm coverage later this evening, especially in Nebraska, as high theta-e air is advected over a baroclinic zone. ..Squitieri/Hart.. 05/28/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted May 28, 2019 Share Posted May 28, 2019 And just like that, that storm has a tornado warning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 28, 2019 Share Posted May 28, 2019 Meanwhile in Nebraska. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 28, 2019 Share Posted May 28, 2019 Yeah, that was a bit of a wall cloud Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherextreme Posted May 28, 2019 Share Posted May 28, 2019 Tornado Warning OHC057-113-280345- /O.NEW.KILN.TO.W.0034.190528T0300Z-190528T0345Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1100 PM EDT Mon May 27 2019 ...TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR MONTGOMERY COUNTY... The National Weather Service in Wilmington has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Northwestern Greene County in west central Ohio... Northeastern Montgomery County in west central Ohio... * Until 1145 PM EDT. * At 1059 PM EDT, a confirmed large and destructive tornado was observed near Trotwood, moving east at 35 mph. TORNADO EMERGENCY for MONTGOMERY COUNTY. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Deadly tornado. SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado. Amateur radio operators have reported a tornado in Montgomery County. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible. * Locations impacted include... Dayton, Kettering, Beavercreek, Huber Heights, Fairborn, Xenia, Trotwood, Vandalia, Bellbrook, Moraine, Oakwood, Yellow Springs, Wright-Patterson Afb, West Carrollton, Cedarville, Wilberforce, Riverside, Clayton, Union and Shiloh. Kip Metclaf is near the tornado warned storm https://www.severestudios.com/storm-chasers/kip.metcalf.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherextreme Posted May 28, 2019 Share Posted May 28, 2019 https://www.whio.com/whio-tv/ https://www.wdtn.com/2-news-live-stream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted May 28, 2019 Share Posted May 28, 2019 Scary looking storm with a gnarly hook and a frightening TDS. Cycling now. Hopefully this goes as well as the Jeff City TOR did, that looks disastrous and turned out alright. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherextreme Posted May 28, 2019 Share Posted May 28, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted May 28, 2019 Share Posted May 28, 2019 Heading towards Xenia next..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted May 28, 2019 Share Posted May 28, 2019 Storm looks to already be ready to drop another one, and so does the one behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted May 28, 2019 Share Posted May 28, 2019 Storm looks to already be ready to drop another one, and so does the one behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted May 28, 2019 Share Posted May 28, 2019 Appears to be tracking almost over the Mall at Fairfield Commons. Densely populated area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherextreme Posted May 28, 2019 Share Posted May 28, 2019 Brandon RobinsonVerified account @brobwx 14m14 minutes ago More I'm listening to scanner traffic from the Dayton area. The damage sounds catastrophic. They're scrambling to mobilize. They are going house to house searching for people in the affected area. Sounds like people are trapped everywhere. Pray for our neighbors in Ohio tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted May 28, 2019 Share Posted May 28, 2019 The 06z run of the NAM3k is presenting a somewhat-concerning scenario for the DFW area, starting with some fairly discrete storms tomorrow afternoon (they do seem to congeal into a line east of DFW with time). SPC mentions that some tornadoes are possible, provided that the thermodynamics are in place: Quote SPC AC 280824 Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 AM CDT Tue May 28 2019 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST TX...FAR SOUTHEAST OK...FAR WESTERN AR... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THE MIDDLE AND UPPER OH VALLEY... CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are expected across portions of the southern Plains northeastward through the Ozarks Wednesday. More isolated severe storms are expected from the Mid-Mississippi Valley eastward to the Mid-Atlantic. ...Synopsis... Primary features within the upper pattern early Wednesday morning will likely be an upper low centered over NE and a strong high centered over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Moderately strong southwesterly flow aloft will likely exist between these two features, extending from northern Mexico northeastward into the middle MS Valley and then eastward across the OH Valley. A shortwave trough is expected to move quickly within this band of enhanced flow aloft, moving across the southern High Plains Wednesday afternoon and reaching the middle MS valley by early Thursday morning. At the surface, low centered over the middle MO Valley early Wednesday will gradually drift eastward while weakening. This eastward motion coupled with the progression of the previously mentioned shortwave trough will help push a cold front southeastward. By 12Z Thursday, this cold front will likely extend from the lower OH Valley southwestward through the Arklatex to the Edwards Plateau. ...Southern Plains...Ozark Plateau... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across west TX at the beginning of the period Wednesday morning, with development aided by a combination of the nocturnal low-level jet and the approaching shortwave trough. Steep lapse rates and strong vertical shear suggest the potential for hail with this early development. This activity is expected to gradually spread northeastward along the frontal boundary, preceding much of the stronger flow aloft and ascent attendant to the advancing shortwave trough. As such, the strength of these storms may be mitigated somewhat while their presence also limits prospects for air mass recovery later during the afternoon/early evening when the shortwave moves through. Overlap between the strengthening low and mid-level winds will result in large, looping hodographs supportive of updraft organization during the late afternoon/early evening. As such, if the thermodynamics are supportive, thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes and very large hail, may develop Wednesday evening across north-central/northeast TX, eastern OK, and western AR. The development of a strong convective line is also possible. Consensus amongst the regional guidance as well as the convection-allowing models is that the air mass will recover and support additional thunderstorm development during the late afternoon and evening. Given this consistency, 30% probability/Enhanced Risk was introduced with this forecast. ...OH Valley...Northern Mid-Atlantic... An organized line may be ongoing over IN with continued eastward progress throughout the day. Thunderstorms are also anticipated in the wake of this convective line as an air mass characterized by dewpoints in the upper 60s/low 70s advects into the region. The strength of the instability will be mitigated by the amount of diurnal heating but even minimal heating should result in enough instability for storm initiation. Strong unidirectional flow aloft will support fast storm motions and potential for multiple bowing line segments. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 5% - Slight Wind: 15% SIG - Slight Hail: 30% - Enhanced ..Mosier.. 05/28/2019 I'm hoping this will be my last severe weather event for quite some time; climatologically north-central Texas is at the end of the severe storm season, and it is about time for the summer pattern to take hold. Especially after what happened in Dayton (not saying that will happen in DFW this time around), I'm hoping I will not need to deal with severe storms for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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