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Mid to Late May 2019 Severe Threats


Quincy
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1 minute ago, janetjanet998 said:

a lot of the storms so far west of I-35,  including the Stillwater storm now, looks like they are being torn apart by too much shear...you can see this on the visible too as the anvils are ripped from the updrafts ...maybe the CAP is killing the updrafts 

they are "tilted". 

Definitely looks like the instability/shear balance is off

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5/23 - (Thursday)

once again possible mixed-mode storm (supercells and multicells) may exist near and east of this stationary front, stretching from Wichita to the Texas Panhandle. Models show high STP and favorable environments for tornadoes. The GFS has this boundary a little more to the northwest.

image.png.ab736ec590a1a6a3acca7c083d45339b.png 

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PDS warned now.

* Tornado Warning for...
  Northwestern Okmulgee County in northeastern Oklahoma...
  Northeastern Okfuskee County in east central Oklahoma...

* Until 630 PM CDT.

* At 538 PM CDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado
  was located 6 miles southwest of Okmulgee State Park, moving
  northeast at 30 mph.

  This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

  HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

  SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado.

  IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris
           may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile
           homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes,
           businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete
           destruction is possible.
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So I guess oddly we are right back where we thought we would be 6 hours ago. Storms would struggle south of 40 and west of 35 and the greatest tornado threat would be north and east of OKC. 

The cap break at 2 pm turned out to be a fake out.

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2 minutes ago, mikeosborne38 said:

I just heard an OKC met look at the cone tornado and then announced it was an EF-2 just by eyeballing it. I thought that was odd.

Yeah you can’t do that.  Sometimes if you have a great view of the very bottom of the base you can gauge if it’s weak or strong based on how fast it’s rotating but I believe a few years ago there was a 1/8th mile wide EF5 in Manitoba  

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Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

Yeah you can’t do that.  Sometimes if you have a great view of the very bottom of the base you can gauge if it’s weak or strong based on how fast it’s rotating but I believe a few years ago there was a 1/8th mile wide EF5 in Manitoba  

That was Elie, and it was pretty apparent it was a violent drillbit by the motion.

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