vman722 Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 1 minute ago, Natester said: Did the HRRR ever pick up initiation in south central Oklahoma? 18z definitely did, almost nailed the initiation locations to a tee albeit slightly off on the timing. 19z run has a monster right on top of OKC around 4pm CST. This is getting very concerning very quickly considering the environment upstream with time as Quincy pointed out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern stream Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 Biggest question for central OK was if we could get CI and could it be maintained. That appears to be the case as of this moment with every shower going up already trying to take on the kidney bean shape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 Might take a little while for the cells to the SW. Low level shear isnt as great as further east and cells are spaced too close at the moment. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 MD up for NE OK, SW MO, etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 5 minutes ago, StormChazer said: MD up for NE OK, SW MO, etc PDS Watch within next hour looks like reading the discussion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 Big wall cloud near Geronimo now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanLarsen34 Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 Uh oh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 4 minutes ago, yoda said: PDS Watch within next hour looks like reading the discussion And its issued till 11pm CDT for NE OK/SW MO/SE KS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 Mesoscale Discussion 0734 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0306 PM CDT Wed May 22 2019 Areas affected...Northeast Oklahoma...Southeast Kansas...Southwest Missouri...and Northwest Arkansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 222006Z - 222200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Supercells capable of large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes -- a few of which may be strong -- are expected. A tornado watch is likely. DISCUSSION...Visible satellite shows boundary layer cumulus developing over portions of northeast Oklahoma, southeast Kansas, northwest Arkansas, and southwest Missouri, as low-level moisture advects northward across the region. Surface dew points in the low 70s F are overspreading the region, ahead of a stalled cold front. Along the front, elevated convection has developed and is moving parallel to the boundary. With continued diabatic heating and low-level moisture advection, further destabilization can be expected, with MLCAPE values of 3000-4000 J/kg developing by late afternoon. Given these thermodynamic conditions, convective initiation is expected within the next 1-2 hours. Convection along the front may eventually root into the boundary layer, and additional storms may develop in the warm sector, particularly in southern parts of the MCD area. As storms develop, effective bulk shear of 50-55 kt will help organize the convection into supercell structures. With effective SRH exceeding 200 m^2/s^2, tornadoes -- a few of which could be strong -- are possible, along with the threat for large hail and damaging winds. A tornado watch will likely be issued within the next hour. ..Karstens/Hart.. 05/22/2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanLarsen34 Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 PDS watch out for NE Oklahoma and parts of Missouri. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 212 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 330 PM CDT Wed May 22 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southeast Kansas Central and Southwest Missouri Northeast Oklahoma * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 330 PM until 1100 PM CDT. ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION... * Primary threats include... Several tornadoes and a few intense tornadoes likely Widespread large hail and scattered very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop across the watch area this afternoon and spread northeastward through the evening. Supercells capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and strong tornadoes are possible. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles north and south of a line from 60 miles west southwest of Tulsa OK to 60 miles east northeast of Knob Noster MO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 22, 2019 Author Share Posted May 22, 2019 The 20z OUN sounding, when compared to other area soundings/observations, suggests the cap has mostly eroded across the OKC metro area. Low-level wind shear is not overly favorable in the area yet, but it should gradually improve with time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 I think Monday was the appetizer, Tuesday the soup or salad, and today just might be the entree. In all seriousness, could we not have been priming the pump atmospherically the past few days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pbrussell Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 3 minutes ago, Indystorm said: I think Monday was the appetizer, Tuesday the soup or salad, and today just might be the entree. In all seriousness, could we not have been priming the pump atmospherically the past few days? It’s the plains man. Something at the last minute like too many contrails in the atmosphere meant supercells weren’t able to sustain their updrafts will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 Cell southwest of Konawa producing lightning now. Must have busted through the cap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherextreme Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 The National Weather Service in Norman has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Eastern Comanche County in southwestern Oklahoma... Southwestern Grady County in central Oklahoma... Southeastern Caddo County in southwestern Oklahoma... Northwestern Stephens County in southern Oklahoma... Northwestern Cotton County in southwestern Oklahoma... * Until 415 PM CDT. * At 328 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Geronimo, moving northeast at 35 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to roofs, siding, and trees. * Locations impacted include... Lawton, Marlow, Elgin, Geronimo, Rush Springs, Fletcher, Cyril, Sterling, Verden, Cement, Norge, Faxon, Agawam, eastern Fort Sill, Lake Ellsworth, Lake Chickasha, Central High, Ninnekah, Hulen and Acme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 That's gonna drop a tornado soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 Just now, StormChazer said: That's gonna drop a tornado soon. I agree. The velocity scan from TLX looks much more menacing than from FDR right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Misstertwister Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 Uh, wasn’t today a conditional today for some areas? Now a PDS? You just never know with the weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 Just now, Misstertwister said: Uh, wasn’t today a conditional today for some areas? Now a PDS? You just never know with the weather Conditional meaning the environment was highly favorable but there was question on if storms would form or not. Now that they're forming the environment can be realized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 22, 2019 Author Share Posted May 22, 2019 Just now, WhiteoutWX said: Conditional meaning the environment was highly favorable but there was question on if storms would form or not. Now that they're forming the environment can be realized. I eluded to this yesterday about the 5/9/03 analog, which was a pretty close match. It's a fine line and if mid-level temperatures were just a touch warmer today, but might not see anything on radar at all south of I-40. Obviously, that's not the case. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 Core of the storm near Geronimo is rapidly growing. Other cells nearby have died. I'd expect tornado potential to rapidly increase in the next hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 Rotation on velocity near bowlegs, weak, but developing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherextreme Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 Oliver Grefe is close to that storm https://www.severestudios.com/livechase/ Direct link https://www.severestudios.com/storm-chasers/oliver.grefe.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Misstertwister Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 Well despite the conditional or not the weather outside just feels a lot worse than Monday did. Im sweating inside my house with the AC on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 The environment and low level jet improve east of HWY-81. If the SW Oklahoma cell can hold together, it may very well go tornadic between Rush Springs and Chickasha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 Cells to the east of OKC look to be quickly organizing. Environment is more favorable this area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 14 minutes ago, WhiteoutWX said: Core of the storm near Geronimo is rapidly growing. Other cells nearby have died. I'd expect tornado potential to rapidly increase in the next hour. Soon as I said that is took a downturn. Looks a lot less organized. Hmmm not sure why it appears to be struggling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 The cell northeast of Seminole looks better and better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 Just now, Windspeed said: The cell northeast of Seminole looks better and better. Cell north of OKC near Crescent has also been doing well. Low level rotation evident just not that strong yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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