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Mid to Late May 2019 Severe Threats


Quincy
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1 minute ago, Natester said:

Did the HRRR ever pick up initiation in south central Oklahoma?

18z definitely did, almost nailed the initiation locations to a tee albeit slightly off on the timing. 19z run has a monster right on top of OKC around 4pm CST. This is getting very concerning very quickly considering the environment upstream with time as Quincy pointed out. 

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MD 734 graphic

Mesoscale Discussion 0734
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0306 PM CDT Wed May 22 2019

   Areas affected...Northeast Oklahoma...Southeast Kansas...Southwest
   Missouri...and Northwest Arkansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 222006Z - 222200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Supercells capable of large hail, damaging winds, and
   tornadoes -- a few of which may be strong -- are expected. A tornado
   watch is likely.

   DISCUSSION...Visible satellite shows boundary layer cumulus
   developing over portions of northeast Oklahoma, southeast Kansas,
   northwest Arkansas, and southwest Missouri, as low-level moisture
   advects northward across the region. Surface dew points in the low
   70s F are overspreading the region, ahead of a stalled cold front.
   Along the front, elevated convection has developed and is moving
   parallel to the boundary. With continued diabatic heating and
   low-level moisture advection, further destabilization can be
   expected, with MLCAPE values of 3000-4000 J/kg developing by late
   afternoon. 

   Given these thermodynamic conditions, convective initiation is
   expected within the next 1-2 hours. Convection along the front may
   eventually root into the boundary layer, and additional storms may
   develop in the warm sector, particularly in southern parts of the
   MCD area. As storms develop, effective bulk shear of 50-55 kt will
   help organize the convection into supercell structures. With
   effective SRH exceeding 200 m^2/s^2, tornadoes -- a few of which
   could be strong -- are possible, along with the threat for large
   hail and damaging winds. A tornado watch will likely be issued
   within the next hour.

   ..Karstens/Hart.. 05/22/2019
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 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Tornado Watch Number 212
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   330 PM CDT Wed May 22 2019

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of 
     Southeast Kansas
     Central and Southwest Missouri
     Northeast Oklahoma

   * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 330 PM
     until 1100 PM CDT.

   ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

   * Primary threats include...
     Several tornadoes and a few intense tornadoes likely
     Widespread large hail and scattered very large hail events to 3
       inches in diameter likely
     Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop across the watch
   area this afternoon and spread northeastward through the evening. 
   Supercells capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and strong
   tornadoes are possible.

   The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles
   north and south of a line from 60 miles west southwest of Tulsa OK
   to 60 miles east northeast of Knob Noster MO. For a complete
   depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
   (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
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The 20z OUN sounding, when compared to other area soundings/observations, suggests the cap has mostly eroded across the OKC metro area. Low-level wind shear is not overly favorable in the area yet, but it should gradually improve with time.

 

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3 minutes ago, Indystorm said:

I think Monday was the appetizer, Tuesday the soup or salad, and today just might be the entree.  In all seriousness, could we not have been priming the pump atmospherically the past few days?

It’s the plains man. Something at the last minute like too many contrails in the atmosphere meant supercells weren’t able to sustain their updrafts will happen. 

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The National Weather Service in Norman has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Eastern Comanche County in southwestern Oklahoma...
  Southwestern Grady County in central Oklahoma...
  Southeastern Caddo County in southwestern Oklahoma...
  Northwestern Stephens County in southern Oklahoma...
  Northwestern Cotton County in southwestern Oklahoma...

* Until 415 PM CDT.

* At 328 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Geronimo,
  moving northeast at 35 mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage
           to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
  Lawton, Marlow, Elgin, Geronimo, Rush Springs, Fletcher, Cyril,
  Sterling, Verden, Cement, Norge, Faxon, Agawam, eastern Fort Sill,
  Lake Ellsworth, Lake Chickasha, Central High, Ninnekah, Hulen and
  Acme.
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Just now, Misstertwister said:

Uh, wasn’t today a conditional today for some areas? Now a PDS?  You just never know with the weather

Conditional meaning the environment was highly favorable but there was question on if storms would form or not. Now that they're forming the environment can be realized. 

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Just now, WhiteoutWX said:

Conditional meaning the environment was highly favorable but there was question on if storms would form or not. Now that they're forming the environment can be realized. 

I eluded to this yesterday about the 5/9/03 analog, which was a pretty close match. It's a fine line and if mid-level temperatures were just a touch warmer today, but might not see anything on radar at all south of I-40. Obviously, that's not the case.

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14 minutes ago, WhiteoutWX said:

Core of the storm near Geronimo is rapidly growing. Other cells nearby have died. I'd expect tornado potential to rapidly increase in the next hour. 

Soon as I said that is took a downturn. Looks a lot less organized. Hmmm not sure why it appears to be struggling. 

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