Santa Clause Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 Looks like things are about to go, west and NW or Wichita Falls and around Ardmore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 Watch incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildwestpb Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 PDS Tornado watch now up for SW, SC up to Central OK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iowahawkeyedave Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 80/80 Tornado probabilities on the new watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanLarsen34 Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 Holy crap is this escalating quickly. We got a freaking PDS watch in central Oklahoma now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calderon Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 Well, I'll say I didn't exactly expect it to be a PDS watch, so that's a little surprising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 211 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 230 PM CDT Wed May 22 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southwest and Central Oklahoma Western North Texas * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 230 PM until 1000 PM CDT. ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION... * Primary threats include... Several tornadoes and a few intense tornadoes likely Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Isolated intense thunderstorms are expected to affect the watch area this afternoon and early evening. Any storm that persists will pose a risk of strong tornadoes, very large hail, and damaging winds. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 25 miles south of Altus OK to 45 miles south southeast of Chandler OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 Cells in south central Oklahoma are struggling due to the cap (at the moment). Time will tell if they'll break through. Of course, we have that storm north of Wichita Falls that recently had a cell merger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 22, 2019 Author Share Posted May 22, 2019 Just now, Calderon said: Well, I'll say I didn't exactly expect it to be a PDS watch, so that's a little surprising. A bit surprised with "several strong tornadoes likely," but there are some key ingredients that are in better alignment than Monday. The best convergence/forcing appears to be north of OKC along the moisture gradient and that's where models just about unanimously agree on convective development later. I'm not quite sure why this watch is displaced to the south, but maybe they are considering a different watch for up north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazieman Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 Huh, PDS watch. That escalated quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanLarsen34 Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 The way this wet from a general thunderstorm area in the Tuesday 1 AM Day 2 outlook to a PDS watch with at least a moderate risk is something I don't think I've ever seen. Only parallel I can think of the historical examples i've studied is May 3, 1999. Not saying anything like this going to happen by any stretch, but it's really rare that we've seen the SPC have to escalate their risk area like this in a 24-48 hour period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherextreme Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 Interesting that the PDS watch goes into a general thunderstorm/marginal/slight location instead of the moderate. Has anyone ever seen something like this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanLarsen34 Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 Guys, part of the PDS watch is currently under a general thunderstorm risk in the SPC outlook. There's something that's probably never happened before! lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 https://twitter.com/theweathermanda/status/1131278921373290496 I'm not sure if the SPC is too far off with this honestly. Check how much that 700mb layer has eroded... Cells merging north of Wichita Falls. Other showers trying to develop to the north, south, and east. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 Just now, weatherextreme said: Interesting that the PDS watch goes into a general thunderstorm/marginal/slight location instead of the moderate. Has anyone ever seen something like this? Could we see a significant adjustment to the outlook at 3? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 I should note that there is subsidence in SW Missouri (which is in the moderate risk area) based on satellite trends. No cumulus there at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iowahawkeyedave Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 Just now, MUWX said: Could we see a significant adjustment to the outlook at 3? Wondering about that also. At this point I'd almost think there would have to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calderon Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 Just now, MUWX said: Could we see a significant adjustment to the outlook at 3? I would almost say 100% guarantee because having a PDS watch straddling into a general t'storm area would be a first, but possibly some kind of breaking of forecasting guidelines because that literally makes no sense. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 22, 2019 Author Share Posted May 22, 2019 1 minute ago, Calderon said: I would almost say 100% guarantee because having a PDS watch straddling into a general t'storm area would be a first, but possibly some kind of breaking of forecasting guidelines because that literally makes no sense. The low-level shear is not very favorable in the SW portion of the watch. Seems odd, but maybe it was a CYA decision for that cell going up. Regardless, the environment becomes increasingly favorable for significant severe with northeastward extent, especially from OKC metro and points northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 3 minutes ago, MUWX said: Could we see a significant adjustment to the outlook at 3? Its already out... it made a somewhat SW move... but the PDS watch part in TX sits in the SLGT risk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calderon Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 2 minutes ago, Natester said: I should note that there is subsidence in SW Missouri (which is in the moderate risk area) based on satellite trends. No cumulus there at all. It's transient and moving ENE with the CU field filling right back in from the SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 Though we only have the one cell, the orientation of potential development of future cells in that line of cumulus up into the I-40 corridor is concerning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazieman Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 3 minutes ago, Quincy said: The low-level shear is not very favorable in the SW portion of the watch. Seems odd, but maybe it was a CYA decision for that cell going up. Regardless, the environment becomes increasingly favorable for significant severe with northeastward extent, especially from OKC metro and points northeast. PDS for a single cell? Is this like maintaining High Risk on Monday for a single cell? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern stream Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 Showers S of OKC. appear to be persisting and slightly growing. Cant believe we are seeing initiation happening so far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calderon Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 Just now, Southern stream said: Showers S of OKC. appear to be persisting and slightly growing. Cant believe we are seeing initiation happening so far south. Hell the one in southwestern Pottawatomie County is rotating and has the kidney bean shape already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanLarsen34 Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 Storm near Lawton doesn't look particularly well organized yet. Meanwhile, we are probably going to need a PDS watch for NE Oklahoma soon. Several storms have breached the cap south of OKC and appear to be maintaining themselves as they track to the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 Did the HRRR ever pick up initiation in south central Oklahoma? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanLarsen34 Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 These are the cells I was referring to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted May 22, 2019 Share Posted May 22, 2019 Cap is eroding just south of OKC, as evidenced by IR satellite meso floaters. Greens popping up east of the SW OK cell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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